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Branchout 2017 - Day 2 Session - Josh Elman


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The Only Metric That Matters
By Josh Elman, Partner at Greylock Partners

Tune into Josh Elman's keynote for the Branchout 2017 stage, and see if you're paying attention to the only mobile growth metric that truly matters.

Published in: Mobile
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Branchout 2017 - Day 2 Session - Josh Elman

  1. 1. The Only Metric That Matters Josh Elman Partner @JoshElman
  2. 2. We’re all here to build products that matter.
  3. 3. We want to make an impact on our users’ lives.
  4. 4. We start with a launch. That means zero users. Hopefully they come (or we bring them).
  5. 5. We start hearing stories. Anecdotes. The plural of anecdote is data.
  6. 6. We have so much data now.. can be overwhelming
  7. 7. There are lots of data points… “250 million PVs in the last 30 days” “Our D7 retention is 60%. D30 is 22%. Is that good?” “We have over 1 million downloads” “ We just topped 200,000 sign ups ” “ We have a 50% 
 DAU/MAU ratio ”
  8. 8. So where do you start?
  9. 9. Just focus on one thing: Are people using your product?
  10. 10. OK, but how can I tell? Purpose: Why do they use your product? Core Action: What is the key behavior? Cycle: Do they use it at the frequency you expect? 1 2 3 Key metric: How many times users perform the core action on the expected cycle
  11. 11. LinkedIn Circa 2005 Purpose Find and be found. Core Action & Cycle Find: search for other members 2-3x a week Be found: respond to inquiries when you receive them 1-2x a year
  12. 12. Yelp Purpose Find local businesses/services. And review them. Core Action & Cycle Searchers: search for businesses 2-3x a week. Reviewers: write a new review 1x/month
  13. 13. Facebook Purpose Stay connected with friends. Core Action & Cycle Check in with friends and see what they are up to. Sharing 2-3x/day
  14. 14. Discord Purpose Connect and communicate with friends around playing PC games. Core Action & Cycle Open the app to see who wants to play games and get on a live channel. 3-4x/week (depends on how often you play)
  15. 15. Airbnb Purpose Book a place to stay. Core Action Search and book trip options. Cycle 3-5x / year
  16. 16. Your “core users” are your best users 1 Top of Mind: They come directly, not because of a reminder, notification, or special deal Track: % users with direct traffic / engagement 2 Recurring: Do they come back again and again Track: % users who return weekly/monthly 3 Referring: Do they share it with others? Track: k-factor, and % users who are referrers
  17. 17. Are people really, really using your product?
  18. 18. Step 1: Analyze month over month usage # days visited in month 1 %whovisitedNdaysinmonth2
  19. 19. 0%# 10%# 20%# 30%# 40%# 50%# 60%# 70%# 80%# 90%# 100%# 1# 2# 3# 4# 5# 6# 7# 8# 9# 10# 11# 12# 13# 14# 15# 16# 17# 18# 19# 20# 21# 22# 23# 24# 25# 26# 27# 28# 29# 30# 31# 32# Reten%on'Rate'based'on'#'%mes'used'in'month'1' Step 2: Determine threshold for core CoreCasualCold
  20. 20. Step 3: Understand activation buckets Curious New Core Cold Casual 40% 20% 40% 8% 10% 4% 50% 1% 90% 95% 40%
  21. 21. Step 4a: Find out why — from your data Following more than 30 accounts 1/3 - mutual follows
 2/3 - one-way follows
  22. 22. Step 4b: Find out why — talk to them 1) What prompted you to sign up and try out our product in the first place? 2) What did not meet your expectations or what was hard to figure out? 3) Why did you come back to give the product another try? 4) What worked the second time that got you using it more frequently? Ask these questions:
  23. 23. Cherish your core users. They are your superheroes.
  24. 24. I have a few core users. I want more!
  25. 25. Problem 1 Not enough people show up.
  26. 26. Clone your core users through virality Word-of-mouth Virality Demonstration Virality Infectious Virality
  27. 27. Problem 2 People sign up, but no one stays.
  28. 28. Onboard users all the way to the core.
  29. 29. Learn Flow: Teach your users your product as they sign up. Take your time. They are there to learn. Don’t rush it. Teaches users what the product does Shows a human curated list of the best content Encourages new users to engage and create content
  30. 30. Welcome Week: If users don’t do it the first day, nudge them to come back and keep going Use email to educate new users on the product.
  31. 31. Social Pressure: If friends are on the system, use them to welcome, teach, and connect with the new folks
  32. 32. Problem 3 People stay, but only for a little while.
  33. 33. Go back to the core analysis and extend it over quarters. Understanding churn is critical to your long term success.
  34. 34. One metric to rule them all.. How many people are really using your product?
  35. 35. Thank you. Josh Elman @joshelman @JoshElman #branchout17 Questions Submit your questions via Enter code Branchout2017