Was Nate Silver Wrong?

@bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com

@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com

WRONG?

PLACES | THINGS
MADE OF INFO

Attention Economy

Hidden costs?

INFLECTION POINT
IS INFLECTED

Is the public less informed?

Fake News

TRUTHINESS

ALTERNATIVE FACTS

STRAW POLL…

Clickbait ad image

CONTENT FARMS
DGAF ABOUT UR CONTENT

PRODUCT IS US
SUCH BIZ MODEL
SO ATTENTIVE

TFW human interpretation doesn’t matter
THIS IS NOT THE CRAP WE’RE LOOKING FOR

Doing more work for the machines

WHAT INFLUENCE DO WE REALLY HAVE?

RECURSIVE FEEDBACK LOOP IS RECURSIVE

Dopamine Rush
NORMAL COCAINE

Who benefits?
FOLLOW THE MONEY

NOW WITH MORE LOSSY
EFFICIENT MARKET

DDOS ON MEANING

MUGGLES DON’T HAVE TIME
NEITHER DO WIZARDS

How is Data Journalism like IA?

@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com@bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com

What’s your evidence?

Data vs. Access
Quant vs. Qual

But, getting good data is getting harder.

Downstream Effects

“So number one, and this kind of goes back to the
supply chain, but if you're worki...

The information supply chain.
Input Output
Noise
The Information Supply Chain

First principle: the data is wrong.

Embracing entropy.

We can’t read users’ minds.

How to correct for wrong data?

What inputs do we trust?

Prioritizing Input

User Research recruiting

How likely is someone to vote?

Likely voter models

Moving target

Changes over time
BUT HER EMAILS!

The peril of adjustments

Apples to Apples

Third parties are not created equal.

Trend Line Adjustment

House Effects Adjustment

Undecideds?

Even more stuff?
W’ELL BE RIGHT BACK…
WITH MORE STUFF

This message was approved by…

Modeling is done by humans.

@bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.comElection forecasting is grounded in classic information theory.

“Information is the resolution of uncertainty.”
— Claude Shannon

“Findability is at the
center of a quiet
revolution in how we
define authority, all...

What does this all mean for Information Architects?

What are our information supply chains?

How do we know?

Our jobs will keep getting harder.

Side doors

Re-orienting Users

We are the definers.

Changes in Page Rank align with us

What can we do
as information architects
on the ground?

As IA’s, what effect do we have
on the broader information environment?

How do we give information users
the ability determine quality?

What are the implications for organizations?

What are an organization’s information assets?

What is the aboutness of your organization?

Bring the aboutness forward.

Resist the impulse to automate for its own sake.

Automate intelligently.

Consider the question.

Prioritization = values.

What can we do as information architects as a community?
What is our responsibility...

What are our goals as a society?

#DTDT
#DTDT?

Information environmentalists.

Elevating the signal to noise ratio
Restoring a healthy signal to noise ratio.

We need to be careful
about giving up human control.

What ambient entropy
do automated processes generate?

Good, Cheap, Fast?
Pick two.

Engaging the community of thought.

Human solutions for human challenges.

What the triple bottom line?
What is our
triple bottom line?

MODELING FOR TRUTH, JUSTICE,
AND THE CANADIAN WAY

Modeling from the outside in.

Modeling from the inside out.

Make information great againWhat kind of information environment
do we want to live...

The curatorial imperative.

Chance 538 gave Trump of
winning the presidency in 2016:
28.6%
Chance a major leagu...

LEAST WRONG

THANK YOU!

Was Nate Silver Wrong?

Bram Wessel

Was Nate Silver Wrong?