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Was Nate Silver Wrong?
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By Bram Wessel, first presented at the 2017 Information Architecture Summit. "Was Nate Silver Wrong: The Crisis of Modeling in an Era of Clickbait, Fake News, and Alternative Facts." This talk explores what election forecasting and information architecture can learn from each other and how your business can survive in our noisy information environment. Transcript: http://factorfirm.com/posts/transcript-was-nate-silver-wrong/
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Was Nate Silver Wrong?
- @bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com WRONG?
- @bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com PLACES | THINGS MADE OF INFO
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Attention Economy
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Hidden costs?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com INFLECTION POINT IS INFLECTED
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Is the public less informed?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Fake News @bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com TRUTHINESS
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com ALTERNATIVE FACTS
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com STRAW POLL…
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Clickbait ad image
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com TFW human interpretation doesn’t matter THIS IS NOT THE CRAP WE’RE LOOKING FOR
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Doing more work for the machines @bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com WHAT INFLUENCE DO WE REALLY HAVE?
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com DDOS ON MEANING
- MUGGLES DON’T HAVE TIME NEITHER DO WIZARDS
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com WRONG?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com How is Data Journalism like IA?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com@bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What’s your evidence?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Data vs. Access Quant vs. Qual
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com But, getting good data is getting harder.
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com WRONG?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com “So number one, and this kind of goes back to the supply chain, but if you're working with actually trying to manufacture something out of data, to come to some analysis or some conclusion, you have to make sure the data is good to begin with.” — Nate Silver, 2011 IAS Keynote
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com The information supply chain. Input Output Noise The Information Supply Chain
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com First principle: the data is wrong.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Embracing entropy.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com We can’t read users’ minds.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com How to correct for wrong data?
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What inputs do we trust?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Prioritizing Input
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com User Research recruiting
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com How likely is someone to vote?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Likely voter models
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Moving target
- Changes over time
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Changes over time BUT HER EMAILS!
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com The peril of adjustments
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Third parties are not created equal.
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Undecideds?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Even more stuff? W’ELL BE RIGHT BACK… WITH MORE STUFF
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com This message was approved by…
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Modeling is done by humans.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.comElection forecasting is grounded in classic information theory.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com “Information is the resolution of uncertainty.” — Claude Shannon
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com “Findability is at the center of a quiet revolution in how we define authority, allocate trust, and make decisions.” — Peter Morville, Ambient Findability
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What does this all mean for Information Architects?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What are our information supply chains?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com How do we know?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Our jobs will keep getting harder.
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Side doors
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Re-orienting Users
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com We are the definers.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Changes in Page Rank align with us
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What can we do as information architects on the ground?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com As IA’s, what effect do we have on the broader information environment?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com How do we give information users the ability determine quality?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What are the implications for organizations?
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What are an organization’s information assets?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What is the aboutness of your organization?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Bring the aboutness forward.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Resist the impulse to automate for its own sake.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Automate intelligently.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Consider the question.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Prioritization = values.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What can we do as information architects as a community? What is our responsibility as a community?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What are our goals as a society?
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Elevating the signal to noise ratio Restoring a healthy signal to noise ratio.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com We need to be careful about giving up human control.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com What ambient entropy do automated processes generate?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Good, Cheap, Fast? Pick two.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Engaging the community of thought.
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- What the triple bottom line? What is our triple bottom line?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com MODELING FOR TRUTH, JUSTICE, AND THE CANADIAN WAY
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Modeling from the outside in.
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Modeling from the inside out.
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Make information great againWhat kind of information environment do we want to live in?
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com The curatorial imperative.
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- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com Chance 538 gave Trump of winning the presidency in 2016: 28.6% Chance a major league baseball player would get a hit during any at-bat in 2016: 25.5%
- @bramwessel @factorfirm factorfirm.com LEAST WRONG
- THANK YOU! @bramwessel | @factorfirm | factorfirm.com
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