The Next Moore’s Law - Netness: Why Everything Wants To Be Connected

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Presented by Sheldon Renan at Open Source Bridge unconference session, June 19, 2009.

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The Next Moore’s Law - Netness: Why Everything Wants To Be Connected

  1. NIELS BOHR (quoted by A N TO N Z E I L I N G E R ) “There are two types of truths: simple truths & deep truths. Simple truth is truth where the opposite is not true. Deep truth is truth where the opposite is also true.”   DA L A I L A M A “There’s something to that.”
  2. a and with for talk Open Source Sheldon Renan vision (+) strategy BRIDGE srenan@gmail.com
  3. the next MOORE’S LAW Sheldon Renan vision (+) strategy Twitter @srenan
  4. netness WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
  5. A funny thing happened to me in 1989: I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG
  6. A funny thing happened to me in 1989: I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG somebody wanted an interactive version of Murder She Wrote
  7. A funny thing happened to me in 1989: I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG somebody wanted an interactive version of Murder She Wrote and somehow… within a short time I was learning Moore’s Law then writing for XEROX PARC
  8. A funny thing happened to me in 1989: I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG somebody wanted an interactive version of Murder She Wrote and somehow… within a short time I was learning Moore’s Law then writing for XEROX PARC THEN ONE DAY I WAS DOING A WHITEPAPER FOR SOMEBODY ON
  9. …interoperability
  10. NOTE TO SELF: Anything that is connected always has more opportunity than anything that isn’t. Making it easy for things to work together is the fastest way to lower the cost of
  11. NOTE TO SELF: Anything that is connected always has more opportunity than anything that isn’t. Making it easy for things to work together is the fastest way to lower the cost of anything? —1994
  12. JSB TELLS ME: If both has the same user interface (big green button), if two machines do roughly the same thing look and feel (LIKE COPYING) if machine in world of atoms if one machine (COPY MACHINE) is connected with is in the world of atoms machine in the world of bits if one machine EACH MACHINE HAS MORE (VIRTUAL COPY MACHINE) opportunity is in the world of bits than if it is a standalone machine — jsb’s law, 1997
  13. Something deep was changing I was aware of a shift the internet? the net? what? jsb talked about the fabric, an emerging fabric of rich services surrounding and interconnecting communities
  14. I began to recognize it was not the internet it was not the network
  15. I began to recognize it was not the internet it was not the network it was netness that was making the difference between our past and our future
  16. Moore’s Law
  17. the price and performance available from semi-conductor technology will double every 24 months
  18. Conversation between Gordon Moore & Carver Mead Article in electronics magazine 1965 Marketing to promote future use of chips in consumer products
  19. Named “Dr. Moore’s Law” by Carver Mead in 1971 Metronome setting the pace for global tech ecosystems Most important source of new opportunity
  20. Foundation of digital everything Enabler of global communications & technology Influence that extends far beyond technology
  21. I asked Gordon Moore, “What is it people don’t understand?”
  22. I asked Gordon Moore, “What is it people don’t understand?” He answered,
  23. I asked Gordon Moore, “What is it people don’t understand?” He answered, “What people don’t understand is that the smaller things get the faster and cheaper and better they always work.”
  24. What is netness?
  25. netness IS AN EMERGING STATE OF BEING in which connectivity is increasingly ubiquitous, lives are increasingly entangled.
  26. Connectivity is becoming the most important driver of new opportunity the critical creator of new value
  27. Not networks Not the Internet Connectivity itself
  28. The more things you connect, the better things work
  29. The more things you connect, the better things work the smarter they are
  30. The more things you connect, the better things work the smarter they are the safer they are
  31. The more things you connect, the better things work the smarter they are the safer they are the more opportunity is created for sharing resources and collaborating
  32. More things, people and places are becoming connected every day
  33. 5 vectors of growth for connectivity
  34. 1. The number of networks
  35. 2. The number of connectable points
  36. 3. The number of connected devices
  37. 4. The number of connected locations
  38. 5. The ubiquity
  39. 5. The ubiquity, frequency
  40. 5. The ubiquity, frequency & intimacy of connections
  41. How is connectivity changing?
  42. As connectivity becomes ubiquitous systems (networks) become
  43. As connectivity becomes ubiquitous systems (networks) become fields
  44. As connectivity becomes ubiquitous networks and lives become
  45. As connectivity becomes ubiquitous networks and lives become entangled
  46. A new kind of connectivity is emerging We used to talk about 3 states of connectivity:
  47. A new kind of connectivity is emerging We used to talk about 3 states of connectivity: Loosely connected Closely connected Embedded
  48. A new kind of connectivity is emerging 4th state of connectivity is emerging: Loosely connected Closely connected Embedded Entangled
  49. When connectivity becomes ubiquitous The more things, people, places become entangled…
  50. When connectivity becomes ubiquitous The more systems (networks) become like fields…
  51. When connectivity becomes ubiquitous The more things, people, places become the better things work entangled the safer they are
  52. Two worlds
  53. The world of atoms The more things, and the world of bits the better things becomes one
  54. What creates the value
  55. Metcalfe’s Law
  56. Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law
  57. Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect
  58. Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect The power of collaboration
  59. Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect The power of collaboration Summation
  60. Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect The power of collaboration Summation (more data from more points of view)
  61. We are not just talking about connecting more things over the networks,
  62. We are not just talking about connecting more things over the networks, We are not just talking about connecting more networks
  63. We are talking about connecting everything
  64. individual world
  65. many devices makes individual world
  66. many devices make individual world
  67. many devices make individual world many room networks make
  68. many wearable devices make individual world many room networks make
  69. many Many wearable devices house networks make make individual world many room networks make
  70. many many wearable devices house networks make make individual world many room networks make
  71. many many wearable devices house networks make make individual world many many room networks neighborhood networks make make
  72. many many wearable devices house networks make make individual world many many room networks neighborhood networks make make
  73. many many associations of wearable devices house networks peer to peer networks make make individual world many many room networks neighborhood networks make make
  74. many many associations of wearable devices house networks peer to peer networks make make individual world many many room networks neighborhood networks global networks make make
  75. individual world
  76. individual world What we consider today to be interconnected networks
  77. individual world is really, really tiny
  78. atom planet individual world …is just the beginning
  79. atom planet is comprised of networks is comprised of networks
  80. connect everything, atom planet at every level
  81. Limit connectivity, and you limit opportunity
  82. Limit connectivity, and you limit opportunity you decrease safety
  83. Connect the unconnected, and you hugely increase opportunity
  84. Connect the unconnected, and you hugely increase opportunity, safety
  85. Connect the unconnected, and you hugely increase opportunity, safety & success
  86. This is why we can say that WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
  87. This is why we can say that WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
  88. This is why we can say that WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
  89. This is why we can say that WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
  90. Example
  91. AN EIGHTY YEAR OLD MAN
  92. WHO LIVES BY HIM SELF
  93. TAKES A SHO W E R AN EIGHTY YEAR OLD MAN
  94. TAKES A SHO W E R AN EIGHTY YEAR OLD MAN WHEN HE FALLS INTO THE TUB
  95. What if
  96. WHEN HE FELL INTO THE TUB KNOWS
  97. THAT THE MAN IS FALL IN FELL INTO WHEN HEG THE TUB KNOWS
  98. THAT HE HAS OSTEO PORO SI FELL INTO WHEN HES THE TUB KNOWS
  99. THE TUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT THAT THE MAN IS FALL ING
  100. THE TUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT – 911 – Daughter – Landlord – Geriatric service – Hospital
  101. THE BATHTUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO
  102. THE BATHTUB KNOWS REARRANGE ITS MOLECULES
  103. HITS THE SO TUB WHEN HE THE BATHTUB KNOWS REARRANGE ITS MOLECULES
  104. HITS THE SO TUB THE WHEN HE TUB CATCHES HIM
  105. individual world connectivity fields will enable emergence of “virtuous service fabrics”
  106. individual world connectivity fields will enable emergence of “virtuous service fabrics” programmed to mitigate threats and optimize outcomes for individuals
  107. individual world “virtuous service fabrics” will evolve from current experiments with
  108. sensor nets individual world “virtuous service fabrics” will evolve from current experiments with
  109. pervasive computing individual world “virtuous service fabrics” will evolve from current experiments with sensor nets &
  110. individual world “virtuous service fabrics” will evolve from current experiments with sensor nets & pervasive computing for healthcare
  111. early stage virtuous service fabrics are already operating invisibly in a surprising number of automobiles today.
  112. Netness vs. Moore’s Law
  113. EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive
  114. EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive to be able to connect, communicate, and collaborate
  115. EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive to be able to connect, communicate, and collaborate anywhere
  116. EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive to be able to connect, communicate, and collaborate anywhere with anything
  117. EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive to be able to connect, communicate, and collaborate anywhere with anything on an ad hoc basis
  118. EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have
  119. EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have the fastest computer chips,
  120. EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have the fastest computer chips, fattest connections,
  121. EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have the fastest computer chips, fattest connections, or vertically optimized silicon solutions
  122. Where does this apply?
  123. This is a tool you can use in planning products, business models & governance
  124. What would be the most important use?
  125. Confluencing crises
  126. Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources & reserves
  127. Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources are the most urgent reason to recognize, optimize and utilize netness Radically increasing the ability for everything to cooperate and collaborate
  128. Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources are the most urgent reason to recognize, optimize and utilize netness Radically increasing the ability for everything to cooperate and collaborate for maximum efficiency (and minimum waste)
  129. Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources are the most urgent reason to recognize, optimize and utilize netness Radically increasing the ability for everything to cooperate and collaborate for maximum efficiency (and minimum waste) will be a requirement to assure survival of many communities.
  130. What Can We Do To Accelerate The Recognition And Optimization of Netness?
  131. We need to create a taxonomy of connectivity
  132. We need to conduct a taxonomy of connectivity experiments to validate the value of connectivity
  133. We need to focus a taxonomy of connectivity experiments to validate the value of connectivity on more “drip networks” as much as broadband
  134. Pierre Teilhard de Chardin in The Phenomenon of Man Connectivity = Life
  135. Pierre Teilhard de Chardin in The Phenomenon of Man Connectivity = Life Isolation = Death
  136. That is why WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
  137. That is why ALL THINGS ABSOLUTELY WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
  138. Thank you, and see you on www.netness.net in 60 days. Sheldon Renan srenan@gmail.com
  139. Designed by Bram Pitoyo brampitoyo@gmail.com
  140. Any questions, comments or rants?

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