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  1. 1. The Future of Publishing
  2. 2. photo credit: Andres Rueda
  3. 3. “The Future is here -- it’s just not evenly distributed yet” William Gibson
  4. 4. photo credit: moon angel
  5. 5. US Trade Wholesale Ebook Sales
  6. 6. oreilly
  7. 7. Doctorow’s Law “If someone takes something that belongs to you, and puts a lock on it that you don't have a key for, that lock isn't in your best interests.”
  8. 8.
  9. 9. 1,000,000,000,000 13,000,000,000
  10. 10. “Demand for products not available in traditional bricks and mortar stores is potentially as big as for those that are [because of limits on shelf space]” -- Chris Anderson
  11. 11. Printed Book Sales Long Tail 6% Short Head 94%
  12. 12. Safari Page Views Long Tail 23% Short Head 77%
  13. 13. Web = Free?!
  14. 14. Do People Really Pay? Internet access fees: $25.8 Billion Music: $2.3 Billion Games: $1.8 Billion Video Downloads: $353 Million Mobile Email and Alerts: $1.3 Billion 2007 Figures from Veronis Suhler Stevenson “Communications Industry Forecast”
  15. 15. “Free is more complicated than you might think” -- Scott Adams, creator of “Dilbert”
  16. 16. A few years ago I tried an experiment where I put the entire text of my book, quot;God's Debris,quot; on the Internet for free, after sales of the hard copy and its sequel, quot;The Religion Warquot; slowed. My hope was that the people who liked the free e-book would buy the sequel. According to my fan mail, people loved the free book. I know they loved it because they emailed to ask when the sequel would also be available for free. For readers of my non-Dilbert books, I inadvertently set the market value for my work at zero. Oops. [emphasis added]
  17. 17. photo credit: bala
  18. 18. Linux Network Adminstrator’s Guide: $3M Writing Linux Device Drivers: $1.6M Using Samba: $1.3M Asterisk: The Definitive Guide: $500K Version Control with Subversion: $300K Real World Haskell: $128K (in first 2 months)
  19. 19.
  20. 20. 7500 comments during book development, 2000 more since publication Only 10% were anonymous 21 people left at least 75 comments
  21. 21.
  22. 22. BookScan POS Data
  23. 23. photo credit: moon angel
  24. 24. ALL publishing is now digital These aren’t print books you happen to sell digitally, these are digital books you might happen to also sell in print
  25. 25.
  26. 26. TV and Radio “The first TV shows were basically radio programs on the television — until someone realized that TV was a whole new medium. Ebooks should not just be print books delivered electronically.”
  27. 27. “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” -- Alan Kay
  28. 28. More information
  29. 29. “Because early experiments can be highly influential, companies that hope to be eventual industry leaders must think carefully about the precedents they set during this period.” -- Michael Porter, Harvard