IMPORTANT: THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Please read disclosures appearing in the Appendix of this presentation.
Arcstone Equity Research is the pre-eminent investment research firm specializing in valuation and investor due diligence relating to emerging private companies. This presentation covers our valuation of Facebook as of February 22, 2012.
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6. Monthly Active Users (MAUs): rapid growth is behind us.
Facebook currently claims 12% of world population as monthly active users.
We believe the company will eventually penetrate 22% of world population.
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
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7. MAU Forecast Chart: asymptote at approx. 1.67 billion
You are
here.
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
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8. 22% penetration of world population is reasonable
Median 28%
Median 20%
Source: SocialBakers, 2012 Arcstone estimates
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
9. Facebook’s Engagement is even more impressive than its Growth
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
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10. Facebook’s Engagement is very high
Source: AppData, Feb 2012
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
11. Facebook’s Powerful Monetization Engine is about to Start
Facebook is likely to pursue at least five attractive
revenue initiatives:
1. Social Graph Ad Network
2. Network Influence Advertising
3. Social Graph-enabled Search
4. SoLoMo Commerce
5. Facebook Credits as a Unified Currency
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
12. Social Graph Ad Network
Hypothesis: Facebook will monetize a web-wide ad network.
• Similar to Google’s AdWords, but “Like”-based
• Ad relevance will be determined by preferences and relationships
• Compare with AdWords, which determines relevance by examining the links
between sites.
• Google has been a search silo
• FB offers a different view on the web’s corpus of information
• More than 7 million apps and websites are integrated with Facebook
• The Like button is a Trojan Horse
• The Like button streamlines cross-internet ad reach
Note: FB’s COO, Sheryl Sandberg was one of the original product managers for
AdWords at Google. This is the crown jewel of Facebook’s monetizaiton
capabilities, which was launched in the fall of 2000.
Enabling tech:
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
13. Network Influence Advertising
Hypothesis: Facebook will monetize individuals marketing their passions
• This is the logical extension of Like-based advertising
• The clout of individuals within networks will enable micro-sponsorships
• There is a long tail of valuable opinions based on influence within
one’s network
• Product endorsements no longer will be the domain of
professional athletes and celebrities
• The implications for branded companies are significant
• Major and minor brands will access true fanatics
• The endorsement will come from you
• The channel will be Facebook
• Revenue share between Facebook and the “sponsored athlete”
Enabling tech:
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
14. Social Graph-enabled Search
Hypothesis: Facebook will monetize web-wide “social search”
• Social is a powerful feature of Search.
• Creating relevant personalized search results is very complex
• Google is already integrating G+ into search rankings
• to reduce the efficacy of search engine optimization (SEO), and
• to preemptively develop a social graph-enabled search product
• Facebook is well positioned to compete with Google+ in social search
• Facebook accesses an entirely different corpus of data
• Far more relevant
• The result is more personalization
• Developing search is very challenging and expensive
• Approx 250 of FB’s >3000 people are former GOOG employees.
• We believe MSFT’s Bing may provide the backbone for FB’s search
Enabling tech:
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
15. Social/Mobile/Local Commerce (SoMoLoCo)
Hypothesis: Facebook will monetize its positions in Social, Mobile and Local
• Approximately 50% of MAUs regularly use Facebook mobile products
• Marketing is most powerful when it is proximate to the purchase
• Proximity of time & place
• Combining Facebook’s Social awareness with mobility and locality
awareness will be a powerful combination
• Mobile push notifications about Likes and friends’ Likes to drive activity
• Preference alerts: “Live music tonight at the Gorin Bros. hat shop.”
• Friends nearby: “Mary Smith is meeting with friends at Joe in
Grand Central Market.”
Note FB’s fMC event in NY on 2/29: http://www.facebook.com/business/fmc
Related tech:
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
16. Facebook Credits as a Unified Currency
Hypothesis: Facebook Credits will become a worldwide currency, extending to
mobile p2p payments and replacing PayPal
• Currently Facebook has a 30% take rate on all transactions occurring on its
website.
• This applies primarily to games and in-app purchases
• Facebook Credits accounted for 15% of revenue in 2011
• We believe Credits can be extended to other offerings on Facebook, the
web, and the offline world.
• Web-based unified payment platform (a la PayPal) will reduce the
friction of payments and increase volume of transactions
• The challenge is how to smoothly transition from a 30% take rate to a
much lower take rate (~3%).
Related tech:
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
43. Discount Rate: WACC using Build-Up Method
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
44. Risks
Relevance
• Facebook is valuable only if it remains relevant to its user base
• Relevance is measured in part by Metcalfe’s Law (size of network)
• More important is engagement, including time on site, activity on site, and
commerce
Engagement
• Engagement is determined by Facebook’s ability to provide entertainment
value, information value and commercial value to its user base. It will do so
by:
• Continuing to encourage open sharing on the platform,
• Promoting more and richer forms of user generated content (UGC)
• Deepening connections and interactions
• Limiting network noise, such as spam and poorly targeted advertising
• Enabling businesses to serve the user base with relevant offerings
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
45. Risk mitigants
• Facebook is the dominant social utility platform
• Facebook is only beginning to monetize its market position
• Constantly investing in an enhanced user experience
• Facebook Connect and Platform are powerful tools for the Internet
economy and have significant market share
• Facebook is the largest display advertiser in the world
• Facebook is already profitably leveraging data gathered from its
users and their behaviors, and it has only just begun
Bo Brustkern 720-259-0472
bo.brustkern@arcstoneresearch.com
54. This presentation is solely for informational purposes and is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions. Arcstone Equity Research, LLC (“Arcstone”)
has not assessed the suitability of the subject company for any person. Nothing in this presentation constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that
any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to the reader of this presentation. Arcstone
does not offer advice on the tax consequences of investment. This presentation is not an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. Arcstone is not a broker-
dealer and is not registered as an investment advisor. Any person using this presentation should consult with their financial advisers and independent tax advisers before making
any investment decision.
Arcstone is a private company that is not affiliated with Facebook, Inc. Principals and employees of Arcstone do not own any shares of Facebook. However, a principal of
Arcstone has been engaged by a third party to advise it and others on the value of Facebook, and the Arcstone principal has provided that advice. The third party and others may
have entered into a transaction or transactions involving shares of Facebook. The Arcstone principal will not purchase or sell shares of Facebook as part of the transactions.
Arcstone believes that the analysis provided by its principal to the third party was consistent with the information provided in this presentation. The analysis provided in this
presentation, however, is based on more recent, and more reliable, information about Facebook than was available to the Arcstone principal at the time the analysis was
provided to the third party, and therefore the two analyses are not identical.
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