Attempting to Predict the Unpredictable

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Humans are... interesting. Here are some unexpected results we've learned from doing split tests on a variety of websites.

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Attempting to Predict the Unpredictable

  1. 1. Predicting the future of an Unpredictable Consumer Brian Massey, Conversion Sciences Website Optimizer @bmassey
  2. 2. We all do it. We are not very good at it. Here are some of the ways we try to predict the future. Predicting the Future
  3. 3. “What has worked in the past will work in the future.” Predicting the Future Method 1
  4. 4. Email: Moving from Monthly send to Weekly send doubled revenue.
  5. 5. @bmassey Making the Phone Ring A) We Can Help. Call… B) Speak with a Compassionate Rehab Specialist. Call… C) Ready to Start Healing? If So, We Can Help. Call… D) Ready to Stop Lying to Yourself About Addiction? We Can Help. Call...
  6. 6. @bmassey Making the Phone Ring A) We Can Help. Call… B) Speak with a Compassionate Rehab Specialist. Call… C) Ready to Start Healing? If So, We Can Help. Call… D) Ready to Stop Lying to Yourself About Addiction? We Can Help. Call... -18% Control +32% +43%
  7. 7. “What I like is what will work in the future.” Predicting the Future Method 2
  8. 8. Extreme Site Make Over
  9. 9. Extreme Site Make Over
  10. 10. “What others are doing will work for me in the future.” Predicting the Future Method 3
  11. 11. Slider Panels 1 Order Today Ships Tomorrow Bold Outdoor 2 Free Super Saver 3 Leader in Mesh 4
  12. 12. Test The Panels Individually
  13. 13. Reordering Sliders 1 Order Today Ships Tomorrow Bold Outdoor 2 Free Super Saver 3 Leader in Mesh 4
  14. 14. Test The Panels Individually
  15. 15. “Because two things happened together, more of one will give us more of the other.” Predicting the Future Method 4
  16. 16. Those who use site search convert at higher rates. Therefore, if we get more people to search, we will sell more.
  17. 17. Bigger Search Box
  18. 18. 22
  19. 19. “Everyone reacts the same way.” Predicting the Future Method 5
  20. 20. “Experimenting will tell me what will work in the future.” Predicting the Future Method 6
  21. 21. University Program
  22. 22. Why are people clicking on this form field, but not on the others?
  23. 23. Hypothesis: They want to see the programs offered.
  24. 24. 20% Increase In Form Fills We added this information to the content and tested.
  25. 25. Hypotheses  What you like may predict the future  What others are doing may predict the future  What you have been doing may predict the future  What everyone is doing may predict the future  One thing may predict the future for another thing.
  26. 26. @bmassey Don’t Think. Know. Training Conversion Catalyst Consulting PPC Landing Page Optimization Video that Converts Analytics Visitor Personas Feared by Competitors Across the Internet
  27. 27. 32 PREPARED BY CONVERSION SCIENCES Brian Massey Joel Harvey (888) 961-6604 www.conversionsciences.com 8650 Spicewood Springs Rd. #145-601 Austin, TX 78759

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