Simon Forge TAFI workshop


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Presentation at final workshop for EC project Towards a Future Internet, held in Brussels 22 Nov 2010

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  • The internet pervades every aspect of public and private life.
    It is a major engine of social progress and economic growth,
    Transition from info repository to ubiquitous tool for sharing and creation,
    A platform for everything from commercial transactions to socializing to education.
    basis of global social and economic progress,
    internet privacy and security offline and online become increasingly important and assured.
    Governments acknowledge the importance of the internet to economic and political stability.
    Internet governance has evolved to direct interactions with citizens on many key questions.
    meets individual need for self-fulfilment and self-expression.
    provides effectiveness and convenience in daily life
  • 1
  • Saturation is set by affordable price for the majority of users – numbers which may reach 105% of the global population of over 8.2Bn by 2030 (US Census Bureau, 2005) if world usage goes towards average levels of saturation today: median between 130% W. Europe and 50% Africa (source: GSMA, June 2010)
    With globalisation, OECD levels of services and handsets costs will slowly be rebalanced, being reset by average world prices
  • We can see the needs analysis through two perspectives:
    That of the scenarios with highly specific needs by context
    A more general level of needs and functional requirements that spread to some extent across all scenarios are guided by the 5 classes of needs and drivers:
    - Social
    - Economic
    - Technological
    - Psychological
    - Human interface
  • We can present the functional requirements at a more detailed level of what enabling services will be required in internet networking, attributes for applications and attributes for content services
    – eg downloading video goals to mobiles handsets as they happen requires a network that will not choke due to sudden traffic peaks – so it will use local caching, which could form part of the standard infrastructure
  • 1 From the scenarios, whatever the next internet will be, it will not be just the solution to a technical problem:
    Its future will be decided by politics mainly, which are driven, by the economics of commercial interests, increasingly influenced by social forces and user psychology
    For instance how much security and privacy is built into a future internet is not a technical problem but must be weighted by who wants to use information gathered through usage and how much protection for the ordinary user there is – ie what aggregators are allowed to do with it.
    2 Also from the scenarios, the future internet could very well be worth far less to the ordinary person than it might be, if certain commercial forces dominate – perhaps less than 10% of what it could be
    3 Therefore what is needed for the next step is a detailed requirements analysis that will lead to a detailed functional spec. Requirements must be taken further than the detailed analysis here in a series of social, psychological and economic studies to form a ’social-and-business architecture’
    4 The human interface will be the window through which the users view the future internet. It also decides accessibility and inclusivity, that is its ‘reach’:
    So the extent of the future internet's take-up will depend on the depth and quality of the human interface.
    Design based on human factors, taking in the user’s level of comprehension, the use of cultural aspect s, the most obvious being language, will decide its utility.
    5 Future design will be multidisciplinary – psychology, computing, sociology, networking, economics
  • Simon Forge TAFI workshop

    1. 1. TOWARDS ATOWARDS A Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22 November 2010 Scenarios, needs & functional analysis for a future internet Simon Forge SCF Associates Ltd
    2. 2. •Needs •Expression Design
    3. 3. Degree of social/political and technical control by ordinary users Environmentalpriority High High Commercial Big Brother – an authoritarian consumer and political world Low Going Green – the green internet economy Low Smooth Trip – the knowledge-based internet economy Power to the People - emergence of the e-Demos The scenarios reflect differing positions along 2 axae - control by users and the priority placed on an environment-friendly economy
    4. 4. 2: Going Green - the green internet economy
    5. 5. 4: Power to the e-people ! - Emergence of the e-Demos
    6. 6. Parameters of evolution 1. Smooth Trip 2. Going Green 3. Commercial Big Brother 4. Power to the People Internet infrastructure Based on current architectural principles Real-time, data driven, mesh, cloud services Vertically integrated Ad hoc/mesh, data/user driven Technological developments Mobility based No change in archit. principles Interoperability Sensors Distributed network control Streaming requires NGN or "clean slate" Walled gardens, specialized nets Distributed control Online Reputation, Viral adoption Generalized wiki Security, Privacy and Control Security from competing private efforts Tradeoffs with anonymity Sensitive to privacy, data protection Strong Security, either real or apparent Power to data collectors Privacy and identity more important than security Economic models As varied as possible. Work process evolution. Government and business support. Natural resources consumption. May need incentives Entertainment Driven by profits from industry, content and network providers Distributed, user generated Innovation from the bottom Social aspects Social inequality Globalization key No social drive Main social drive Policy Data protection Moderate IPR Transparency Energy, Environment Strong IPR protection No IPR protection Open standards Interconnection Standards Some tension between open and industrial standards Filter / search technologies key Need global standards Competing closed standards may prevail Open standards acceptable Open or Open source standards Multi-cultural support Network Neutrality Important but not strongly enforced Important but not key Ignored, just a burden Key element to enforce Scenario analysis from the MIT workshop
    7. 7. Highlights from the workshops 1. Brussels -1 : Focus on the social, economic, political and psychological factors - not the technology 2. MIT : Scenario 3 is less desirable but more likely - while a green planet internet (Scenario 2) is less probable 3. Tokyo : BUT the Asian view is that a future internet must mix cultures, be multi-lingual - and a green planet is the obvious starting point - while scenario 3 has positive elements of popular culture (eg Japanese gaming genres). Also the EU’s mix of languages and cultures is a good model of the future internet 4. Brussels -2 : Community based design should be the basis for the future, and multidisciplinary research is a must 5. All : prefer Scenario 4 - but it is an ideal
    8. 8. The top-line need by scenario 2 Self assurance of safety for climate change catastrophes, through planetary monitoring, controlling & alerting 3 Escapism, entertainment, distraction, instant gratification 4 Group identification and socialisation, with self- determination through control of own internet world, assuring trust and protection 1 Self development & improvement - closely linked to self-esteem and personality assertion - education through life
    9. 9. The future is mobile internet globally, by 2020 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Expected 7 Bn users 2017 (103% world pop) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Billionsofmobileservicesusersworldwide NICs’ middle classes 1.5Bn users, 2004 5Bn users, July 2010 (74% world pop.) 4Bn users, Jan 2009 (60 % world pop.) 800K users, 2000 Expected 6 Bn users June 2012 (89% world pop.)
    10. 10. Elucidating Functional Requirements Needs analysis Functions required •Scenarios •Workshops •Delphi survey •Historical analysis •Scenarios •Workshops •Delphi survey •Historical analysis •Need for greater trust •Match developing world conditions •Security, privacy, resilience •Simple infrastructure, low cost, etc
    11. 11. Open & shareable • Open standards • Inter-operability • Technology neutrality • Open standards • Inter-operability • Technology neutralityAvailable & accessible • High speed data access • Limitless coverage • Mobile access • High speed data access • Limitless coverage • Mobile access Reliable & resilient Trustworthy & private • Personal privacy & security • Transparent governance • Internet identity layer • Personal privacy & security • Transparent governance • Internet identity layer Non-stop operation: • Crisis management • Autonomic self- healing • Failure prediction, • Attack detect/ protect Non-stop operation: • Crisis management • Autonomic self- healing • Failure prediction, • Attack detect/ protect Future network requirements driven by users’ needs
    12. 12. Conclusions  The problems are in internet ‘politics’ (including governance & regulation), economic and commercial force, the sociology & user psychology, governmental censorship- not the technology  Scenarios point to reasonable possibility of effective failure: a future internet could be worth very little – perhaps <10% of its potential  Must address the lack of a detailed requirements analysis – in social, psychological and economic factors - essential to a useful functional spec of a new ‘social-and-business architecture’  Focus on human interface environment - key to global take-up  Multidisciplinary approach - abandon monolithic technological research cultures