Joakim Helenius – Saaremaa majandus 20 aasta pärast

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SaareMaaPäevad 2011 / Saaremaa Ettevõtluskonverents - Saaremaa majandus 20 aasta pärast Mõned isiklikud mõtted ja tähelepanekud

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Joakim Helenius – Saaremaa majandus 20 aasta pärast

  1. 1. Saaremaa majandus 20 aasta pärastMõned isiklikud mõtted ja tähelepanekud September 2011
  2. 2. How can Saaremaa entrepreneurs position themselves for the future? World Estonia Saaremaa 2
  3. 3. World trends - Population World Population, billions 12 FORECAST Emerging countries 10 Developed countries 8 6 4 2 0Source: United Nations 3
  4. 4. World trends – Economic activity Economies share of world GDP 90% FORECAST 80% Developing countries 70% 60% % of the total 50% 40% 30% Emerging countries 20% 10% 0%Source: IMF, Trigon 4
  5. 5. World trends - Environmental change Food supply challenge Fresh water supply challenge Potential Impact of Climate Change by 2050 • Min -14% • Mid -30% • Max -46%Source: United Nations Environmental Programme - The Environmental Food Crisis, 2009. 5
  6. 6. World trends – Conclusions Where does Estonia fit in on the global scale? 6
  7. 7. Estonia trends - Population Share of children by local government units, 1.01.2000Source: Statistics Estonia 7
  8. 8. Estonia trends - Population Share of children by local government units, 1.01.2011Source: Statistics Estonia 8
  9. 9. Estonia trends – Population Population densitySource: Statistics Estonia 9
  10. 10. Estonia trends – Economic activity Share of national GDP, % From 1996 to 2008 53.1 59.6% 10.6 8.1% 1.9 1.8% 8.7 10.4%Source: Statistics Estonia 10
  11. 11. Estonia trends – Conclusions Where does Saaremaa fit in given Estonia’s positioning on the global scale and its local (dis)advantages? 11
  12. 12. Saaremaa – Competitive analysis Advantages: The sunniest part of Estonia The lowest rainfall Low air pollution Cultural heritage Island brand Disadvantages: Logistics LabourSource: Statistics Estonia 12
  13. 13. Saaremaa – Business opportunities Tourism Avoid mass Niche / exclusive Agribusiness Organic agriculture Related processing Brand - Saaremaa Other niche E.g. Saare PaatSource: Statistics Estonia 13
  14. 14. Saaremaa after 20 years: My forecast Saaremaa GDP breakdown, 2008 Saaremaa GDP breakdown, 2030 Agriculture 5% More services Less industry / More of the Industry Services industry will be food 32% 63% processing related More specialized agriculture (esp. organic)Source: Statistics Estonia 14
  15. 15. Saaremaa: My recommendations Support niche high-value tourism opportunities Support niche high-value agriculture / food processing opportunities Be open to local /outside entrepreneurs with interesting new ideas 15

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