1. PHIMARK Global Index: 129
Acquirers: 34
Performers: 58
Management Change: 26
Acquisition Target: 39
Distressed: 6
The Banking Industry Chessboard
March 19,2013
Market Capitalization: $3.628 trillion
The Cyprus bailout raises questions, often unanswered, fearmongering and politically motivated
about the solidity of the world banking system, that of the Eurozone and of nations in the
Mediterranean.
Updating our banking universe of 163 banks, we can first of all reassure ourselves that the global
banking system is performing, and on a capitalization weighted basis is very healthy.
We have upgraded some smaller banks, and even taken Fanny Mae off our distressed
list, although it is the weakest institution in the nondistressed universe. SNS Reaal got
nationalized by Dutch Authorities, and so Jeroen Dijsselbloem made good on the deposit
insurance for his countrymen, while now sacrificing Cypriotic banks, destroying his own credibility
first of all, and that of the institution he is chairing, the EuroGroup.
We believe the troubled banks are not necessarily pertaining to specific geographies.
Commerzbank is weaker than many of the Italian and Spanish banks and the largest on our list of
banks approaching distressed status.
2. Top 10 Banks in Each M&A Classification Category
Management Acquisition
Acquirer Performer Change Target Distressed
Westpac Banking Corporation Wells Fargo & Co JPMorgan Chase & Co. Citigroup Inc. Banca Piccolo Credito Valtellinese
Royal Bank of Canada HSBC Holdings plc Nacional Financiera SNC Bank of Am erica Corp Bank of Cyprus
Itau Unibanco Holding SA Bank of China Banco Santander, S.A. Barclays PLC Sparebanken Vest
Banco Bradesco SA Sberbank Rossii Sum itom o Mitsui Financial Grp Capital One Financial Corp. Cyprus Popular Bank
Allied Irish Banks Standard Chartered Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc SNS Reaal (Nationalized)
The Bank of Nova Scotia Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Lloyds Banking Group PLC Deutsche Bank AG Banca Popolare dell'Etruria e del Lazio
Toronto-Dom inion Bank UBS AG Credit Suisse Group AG Banco Santander Brasil
HDFC Bank Lim ited Goldm an Sachs Group, Inc. The Bank of New York Mellon Danske Bank
U.S. Bancorp Mizuho Financial Group Inc. KeyCorp Societe Generale
Canadian Im perial Bank of Com m erce Bank of Montreal Zions Bancorporation ING Groep N.V.
3. Large Banks that materially improved
• Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.
• Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
• Banco Santander, S.A.
5. Troubled banks that could go into distress
• Commerzbank AG
• Banca Monte dei Paschi e Siena
• Banco Popolare
• FNMA
• Banca Popolare di Spoleto
• Porter Bancorp
