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BSEF 2013 energy Okan Yardimci

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BSEF 2013 energy Okan Yardimci

  1. 1. PANEL DISCUSSION AN OUTLOOK FOR GAS SUPPLY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION BY 2020 Okan YARDIMCI Energy Expert, Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey IV International Black Sea Economic Forum 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  2. 2. Okan YARDIMCI Education 2004 (B.Sc) 2008 (MBA) 2008 (Exec. P.) Cont. (LL.M. Can.) Cont. (Ph.D Can.) Petroleum and Natural Gas Eng. Business Management Public Utilities Law Finance Work Experience 2004-2006 2006-Cont. Reservoir Engineer, Perenco (International Oil Company) Energy Expert, Energy Market Regulatory Authority, Turkey (METU) (Atılım U.) (Michigan State U.) (PennState U.) (Hacettepe U.) Other ERRA Lecturer (Advanced Training Course: Price Regulation & Tariffs) Member of Energy Experts Society, Member of Youth Leader Society Interests; Global energy markets, Turkey energy markets, regulation, tariffs, oil and natural gas prices, LNG, econometrics, finance, arbitration, international law, conflict of contract law, leadership, diplomacy, politics Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  3. 3. Turkey TURKEY NATURAL GAS SUPPLY - 2011 (44,5 BCM) Natural Gas Consumption of Turkey Annual consumption forecast for 2013; 47.6 BCM Nigeria LNG; 3% Domestic Production; 2% 50 45 Algeria LNG; 9% Import Azerbaijan; 9% 40 35 Russia; 57% Iran; 18% 30 25 20 15 Domestic Production ~ 450 billion cubic meters billion cubic meters Spot LNG; 2% 10 5 0 Market liberalisation Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  4. 4. Turkey Place of the Turkey's Natural Gas Consumption in the World 1,5% 47 43 40 1,2% 32 30 0,9% 27 24 20 0,6% 10 0,3% 0,004% 0,2% 0,3% 0,6% 1,0% Proportion of the Turkey cons. Country ranking by cons. 50 1,2% 0 0,0% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  5. 5. Natural gas market structure before 2002 State owned comp. BOTAŞ was the monopoly on; Imported Gas LNG Facility BOTAŞ Industry Residential Distribution Power       Import & Wholesale, Transmission, Distribution, Storage, Sale, Determination of wholesale prices, retail prices, connection fees Domestic Gas Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  6. 6. Natural gas market structure after 2002 Transmission (LNG & Pipeline) Domestic Production Export Eligible Cons. Wholesale (LNG, CNG, Pipeline) Distribution Import (LNG & Pipeline) Non-Eligible Cons. LNG Facilities & Underground Storage SUPPLY WHOLESALE NETWORK CONSUMPTION Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  7. 7. Natural gas market activities IMPORT WHOLESALE TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION 15 + 30 spot LNG 42 1 pipeline + 24 LNG 64 COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS 75 STORAGE EXPORT 4 4 Total number of licences; 259 Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  8. 8. Import BOTAŞ is required to transfer its import contracts until its market share decreases to 20% The first contract release tender was completed by BOTAŞ on 30th of November 2006. Company Transferred amounts (million cm3) 1 Shell Enerji A.Ş. 250 2 Bosphorus Gaz A.Ş. 750 3 Enerco Enerji San. ve Tic. 2500 4 Avrasya Gaz A.Ş. 500 The second contract release tender was completed by BOTAŞ on 1st of January 2013. Company Transferred amounts (million cm3) 1 Bosphorus Gaz A.Ş. 1750 2 Akfel 2250 3 Kibar 1000 4 Batı Hattı 1000 Azerbaijan contract release to SOCAR completed by BOTAŞ on 1st of January 2013. Company 1 SOCAR Transferred amounts (million cm3) 1200 Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  9. 9. Import contracts CONTRACTS QUANTITY (BCM/YEAR) RUSSIAN FED. West-1 6 (Private Companies) RUSSIAN FED. West-2 8 (4 BCM BOTAŞ, 4 BCM Private Companies) RUSSIAN FED. Blue Stream 16 (BOTAŞ) IRAN 10 (BOTAŞ) AZERBAIJAN 6.6 (5.2 BCM BOTAŞ, 1.2 BCM SOCAR) TURKMENISTAN 16 (not in operation) ALGERIA (LNG) 4 (BOTAŞ) NIGERIA LNG) 1.2 (BOTAŞ) AZERBAIJAN 16 BCM/ SHAH DENIZ 2 PROJECT (Trans Anatolia Pipeline-TANAP agreement was signed in 2012) Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  10. 10. Turkey natural gas system Russian Fed.(West) 8 BCM (4 BCM BOTAŞ, 4 BCM Private Comp.) Greece 0,75 BCM Russian Fed. (Blue Stream) 16 BCM Russian Fed.(West) 6 BCM (Private Comp.) Azerbaijan 6,6 BCM (5,4 BCM BOTAŞ, 1,2 BCM SOCAR) + 16 BCM (SHAH DENIZ 2) Turkmenistan (Agreement) 16 BCM Algeria+Nigeria (LNG) 4 BCM + 1,2 BCM Iran 10 BCM Spot (LNG) BOTAŞ+Private Comp. Underground Storage LNG Gasification Terminals Planning Natural Gas Underground Storage Planning LNG Gasification Terminals Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  11. 11. LNG facilities & storage BOTAŞ Marmara Ereğlisi LNG Terminal Yearly Send-Out Capacity : 8.2 Billion m3 (Tank Capacity; 3 X 85.000 m3 LNG tanks) Daily Maximum Sent Out : 18.7 million m3/day TPAO Silivri Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities Type : Depleted gas fields (Değirmenköy and Kuzey Marmara Fields) Total Storage Capacity : 2.7 Billion m3 Maximum Sent Out : 14.5 million m3/day EGEGAZ Aliağa LNG Terrminal Yearly Send-Out Capacity : 6.0 Billion m3 (Tank Capacity; 2 X 140.000 m3 LNG tanks) Daily Maximum Sent Out : 16.4 million m3/day Underground Storage LNG Gasification Terminals Planning Natural Gas Underground Storage Planning LNG Gasification Terminals Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  12. 12. LNG facilities EGEGAZ BOTAŞ Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  13. 13. LNG TRADE The role of Turkey in the global LNG trade Source : International Gas Union, World LNG Report Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  14. 14. Missing sea… Source : DNV Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  15. 15. Crazy project Channel Istanbul Source : DNV Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  16. 16. Thank You! Okan Yardımcı Energy Expert, Turkey +90 532 798 85 50 oyardimci@epdk.org.tr okanyardimci@gmail.com www.enerjiuzmani.blogspot.com Akçakoca, Black Sea, Turkey
  17. 17. Turkey as a natural transit country… WORLD’S 2ND LARGEST NATURAL GAS MARKET NATURAL TRANSIT ROUTE WORLD’S LARGEST OIL AND GAS RESOURCES Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  18. 18. Black Sea gas potential… in the Turkish part of the Black Sea; 2006 - Studies at Sinop Region (TPAO, Exxon-Mobil, Petrobras) 2007 - Gas Exploration at Akçakoca Region (TPAO, OMV, Foinavon, Tiway) – yearly production is 0,7 billion m3 2008 - Studies at Kastamonu & Samsun Region (TPAO, Exxon-Mobil) 2009 - Studies at Zonguldak Region (TPAO, Chevron) 2011 - Studies at Istranca Region (TPAO) 2013 – TPAO & Shell Agreement, Studies will start in 2014 Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  19. 19. Black Sea gas potential… TPAO’s Istranca-1 offshore well tested natural gas. The well, drilled in the Western Black Sea Licence AR/TPO/3920, has a water depth of 85 meters and a total depth of 3650 meters. Istranca-1 well test proved the existence of hydrocarbons in the Turkish Black Sea outside the 12-Mile territorial waters. The well test between 1318.September.2012 recovered gas from Middle Miocene aged sandstones. Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  20. 20. Black Sea gas potential… OMV, Total, Repsol studies in the Bulgaria part of the Black Sea. Shell, Exxon Mobil, Petrom studies in the Ukraine part of the Black Sea. Vanco studies at Prekarçinki, Ukraine. Rosneft, Exxon Mobil studies at Tuapse, Russia. Romania’s Gas Exploration (Neptun Block, 70.7 meters of net gas pay, preliminary estimates 42-84 billion m3 – 3 to 6 times Romania’s gas consumption) (OMV Petrom, Exxon-Mobil) (Deepwater Champion) Chevron’s Studies about shale gas on Romania's Black Sea coast Studies at Crimean peninsula Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  21. 21. Natural gas price components Components of Household Gas Price (7,950 Euro/GJ) fiscal legislation Private Consumption Tax; 3,6% fiscal legislation Value Added Tax; 15,3% Storage Fee; 0,8% Average Distribution Fee; 2,9% Average Transmission Fee; 3,2% 74,3%; Gas Price + Wholesale Profit Around 1/5 of the total annual consumption is using the storage facility. 0,8% is the average ratio. Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea
  22. 22. Small-Scale LNG Okan YARDIMCI Panel Discussion: An Outlook for Gas Supply in the Black Sea Region by 2020 IV International Black Sea Economic Forum, 24-25 October 2013, Yalta, Crimea

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