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Clouds and roofracks

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Presentation for the Interop 2010 Cloud Computing track, looking at the competition within the cloud ecosystem and the "bigger picture" of cloud computing in the context of ubiquitous use of computer technology

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Clouds and roofracks

  1. 1. Clouds and roofracks The cloud computing market is evolving
  2. 2. http://beachpackagingdesign.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/11/04/fluff.jpg
  3. 3. “Agile” Pay-as-you- methods SOA Virtualization go licensing and self- architectures service
  4. 4. Managed IT BPO hosting outsourcing “Agile” Pay-as-you- methods SOA Virtualization go licensing and self- architectures service
  5. 5. Managed IT BPO hosting outsourcing This “cloud” thing “Agile” Pay-as-you- methods SOA Virtualization go licensing and self- architectures service
  6. 6. Let’s get some things straight.
  7. 7. Three kinds of clouds My mom’s definition The technical definition The business model definition
  8. 8. My mom’s definition Cloud
  9. 9. My mom’s definition Cloud = Web
  10. 10. My mom’s definition Cloud = Web = Internet
  11. 11. My mom’s definition Cloud = Web = Internet = Useless
  12. 12. http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/04_01/tornadoDM3030a_800x533.jpg
  13. 13. The technical definition
  14. 14. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mynameisharsha/4092086880/
  15. 15. http://www.flickr.com/photos/h4ck/2413562108/
  16. 16. http://www.flickr.com/photos/stawarz/3538910787/
  17. 17. http://www.flickr.com/photos/swimparallel/3391592144/
  18. 18. http://www.flickr.com/photos/genewolf/147722350
  19. 19. http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkmoose/
  20. 20. http://www.flickr.com/photos/avlxyz/389030408/
  21. 21. “Cloudy” tech.
  22. 22. That’s the technical definition Virtualization Automation Self-service Elasticitly Usage tracking & billing Service-oriented article
  23. 23. The business model definition
  24. 24. Clouds are a third-party utility
  25. 25. http://www.flickr.com/photos/paulcross/4333070249/
  26. 26. The cloud business model Multitenant Pay-as-you-go Third-party No upfront investment Not entitled to an opinion on architecture
  27. 27. (I think this is inevitable.)
  28. 28. IT server costs
  29. 29. Idle capacity, lack of automation, etc. IT server costs
  30. 30. Idle capacity, lack of automation, etc. IT server costs Private cloud costs
  31. 31. Idle capacity, lack of automation, etc. IT server costs Ping, power, pipe, Private efficiencies cloud costs
  32. 32. Idle capacity, lack of automation, etc. IT server costs Ping, power, pipe, Private efficiencies cloud costs Public cloud costs
  33. 33. The cloud trifecta
  34. 34. 037!HB::D3H!KB::B9 .@9I%" JB@I%" -%%#%%& ""#"%& ""#,%& ""#+%& ""#*%& ""#)%& ""#(%& ""#'%& ""#$%& ./0123 4;;!4<; =>?@0AB =2??2!4<; E4$!F9B5037 G22H5B G22H5B!?D:B G22H5B!?D:B 452678923: .C0/0D .@@E3HD3B ! ! L?D3H!M2957IMD7B!/23D:29D3H!?:0:D23?!K>!N0:AO=26?B Cloud Encounters, Peter van Eijk, digitalinfrastructures.nl
  35. 35. '#!/)01#$!"2#34+,#$' <; @< @; !"##"$%&'()$*+'*&'((%&+ ?< ?; >< >; =< =; < ; >@ABA >DABA >CABA ?;ABA =ACA ?ACA <ACA DACA CACA ==ACA =?ACA =<ACA =DACA >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C Connect times to Amazon Cloudfront from NYC 5%''%,!6%%,($7!0$48#,!9%''%,!,#3'($7: Cloud Encounters, Peter van Eijk, digitalinfrastructures.nl
  36. 36. ;<=7>?7;;?7@A@ !+)&98(#C!F707B7 !$++$),-"#.)(%"(-"##,-% ;@O7;H=7?=7@A@ !B:3%*5-8:C!/*%)*5,8'-3 ; <; =;; =<; >;; ><; ?;; ?<; ! !+#2*')8(*'C!.*':851 Cloud "-#7/!.*+! processing is $,(-$.(//01/21345//)**+*$,(#(6$$6#"(-$.( ! -$.(/01/3/789(:;(<79(<=< $D F%1!G%*-*$/! !.$N,&'C!J5*,8'- ! -$.(/01/3/789(:;(<>;(<=< (+!0%*--:!A*0! !P5#'&'(*'C!/*%)*5,8'-3 ! everywhere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loud Encounters, Peter van Eijk, digitalinfrastructures.nl !
  37. 37. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
  38. 38. This isn’t just timesharing all over again SOA
  39. 39. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components SOA from functionality through consistent APIs
  40. 40. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service
  41. 41. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Virtualization
  42. 42. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones
  43. 43. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour
  44. 44. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Standardization
  45. 45. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Means users are OK with Standardization a menu of predefined configurations
  46. 46. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Means users are OK with Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc. configurations
  47. 47. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Means users are OK with Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc. configurations Automation
  48. 48. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Means users are OK with Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc. configurations Increases the human-to- Automation machine ratio & drives marginal cost towards 0
  49. 49. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Means users are OK with Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc. configurations Increases the human-to- Automation 10x enterprise machine ratio & drives marginal cost towards 0 efficiency ratios
  50. 50. Inconsistent adoption plans 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
  51. 51. Inconsistent adoption plans 38% 47% ITI “Unsure about adopting “Won’t consider the cloud in cloud services” next 12 months” 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
  52. 52. Inconsistent adoption plans 38% 47% ITI “Unsure about adopting “Won’t consider the cloud in cloud services” next 12 months” F5 Networks 82% “In trial, implementation, or use of public clouds” 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
  53. 53. Inconsistent adoption plans 38% 47% ITI “Unsure about adopting “Won’t consider the cloud in cloud services” next 12 months” F5 Networks 82% “In trial, implementation, or use of public clouds” “Implementing cloud services” 60% 8% CIO.com 29% “Actively researching (cloud on “No interest in the cloud” radar)” 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
  54. 54. Plenty of choice in the “business” definition of clouds Bare metal Virtualized Hybrid IaaS PaaS Composed services
  55. 55. A variety of choices (***Slides from Dell webinar)
  56. 56. Private Public
  57. 57. Private Public Bare Managed metal hosting
  58. 58. Private Public IaaS IaaS Bare Managed metal hosting
  59. 59. Private Public PaaS PaaS IaaS IaaS Bare Managed metal hosting
  60. 60. Private Public Intranet SaaS PaaS PaaS IaaS IaaS Bare Managed metal hosting
  61. 61. Private Public Composed service Intranet SaaS PaaS PaaS IaaS IaaS Bare Managed metal hosting
  62. 62. Lots of market confusion
  63. 63. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jumphigh/1565967960/
  64. 64. 60 45 30 15 0 Stopped to taste Actually bought some 6 jams 24 jams http://sivers.org/jam
  65. 65. 60 45 30 15 0 Stopped to taste Actually bought some 6 jams 24 jams http://sivers.org/jam
  66. 66. 60 45 30 15 0 Stopped to taste Actually bought some 6 jams 24 jams http://sivers.org/jam
  67. 67. 60 45 30 15 0 Stopped to taste Actually bought some 6 jams 24 jams http://sivers.org/jam
  68. 68. 60 45 30 15 0 Stopped to taste Actually bought some 6 jams 24 jams http://sivers.org/jam
  69. 69. General population Cancer patients 13% 35% 65% 87% Choose their own treatment Have others choose http://sivers.org/jam
  70. 70. Experimentation is easy, too.
  71. 71. Expense reports can no longer enforce IT policy. Wiley GAAP 2010: Interpretation and Application of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (By Barry J. Epstein, Ralph Nach, Steven M. Bragg)
  72. 72. Airfare DNS Cloud Public transit Important research Hotel
  73. 73. http://www.flickr.com/photos/joconnell/
  74. 74. Bare metal
  75. 75. Bare Virtualization metal
  76. 76. Bare Virtualization Public/private metal hybrid models
  77. 77. Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS metal hybrid models
  78. 78. <script> Hello, world! </script> Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS metal hybrid models
  79. 79. <script> Hello, world! </script> Mashup, Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS RESTful metal hybrid models services
  80. 80. <script> Hello, world! </script> Mashup, Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS RESTful metal hybrid models services Maximum efficiency is about a spectrum of IT strategies atop adaptive infrastructure.
  81. 81. Always on premise Private Compliance- enforced Need to track and audit Legislative Data near local computation
  82. 82. Always on Can be done premise anywhere Private Compliance- Testing enforced Training Need to track and Prototyping audit Batch processing Legislative Seasonal load Data near local computation
  83. 83. Always on Can be done Always in premise anywhere cloud Private Partner access Compliance- Testing enforced Proximity to cloud Training services (storage, Need to track and Prototyping CDN, etc.) audit Batch processing Massively grid/ Legislative Seasonal load parallel (genomic, Data near local modelling) computation
  84. 84. Always on Can be done Always in premise anywhere cloud Load/pricing engine Private Partner access Compliance- Testing enforced Proximity to cloud Training services (storage, Need to track and Prototyping CDN, etc.) audit Batch processing Massively grid/ Legislative Seasonal load parallel (genomic, Data near local modelling) computation
  85. 85. Always on Can be done Always in premise anywhere cloud Load/pricing engine Private Partner access Compliance- Testing enforced Proximity to cloud Training services (storage, Policy engine Need to track and Prototyping CDN, etc.) audit Batch processing Massively grid/ Legislative Seasonal load parallel (genomic, Data near local modelling) computation
  86. 86. Virtual machine (infrastructure cloud) Always on Can be done Always in premise anywhere cloud Load/pricing engine Private Partner access Compliance- Testing enforced Proximity to cloud Training services (storage, Policy engine Need to track and Prototyping CDN, etc.) audit Batch processing Massively grid/ Legislative Seasonal load parallel (genomic, Data near local modelling) computation
  87. 87. Compute task (service cloud) Always on Can be done Always in premise anywhere cloud Load/pricing engine Private Partner access Compliance- Testing enforced Proximity to cloud Training services (storage, Policy engine Need to track and Prototyping CDN, etc.) audit Batch processing Massively grid/ Legislative Seasonal load parallel (genomic, Data near local modelling) computation
  88. 88. An ecosystem isn’t a nice place Natural selection at work
  89. 89. http://www.thule-car-roof-boxes.co.uk/pictures/roof-box-with-roof-rack.jpg
  90. 90. Some predictions
  91. 91. http://www.flickr.com/photos/sparkys/3434382326/
  92. 92. So who’s going to win?
  93. 93. Pure infrastructure: Who’s got best economies of scale?
  94. 94. Recoding: Who’s got developer mindshare?
  95. 95. Pure Services: Who’s got network effects? feed.API (facebook) > feed.api (friendster)
  96. 96. PaaS: Who’s got brand and users?
  97. 97. PaaS: Who’s got brand and users?
  98. 98. Does a PaaS need a flavor? Ning wants to be a social network Webex wants to collaborate Salesforce wants to be a CRM Quickbase wants to be SMB
  99. 99. The big picture A layered society
  100. 100. http://www.bigpicturesmallworld.com/funstuff/bigtime.shtml
  101. 101. Span of power Access Technology Money Nobility Media Theocracy Land holdings Monarchy Religion & Genetics culture
  102. 102. http://www.nytimes.com/images/blogs/tvdecoder/posts/1107/tivo-box.jpg
  103. 103. http://www.flickr.com/photos/viewfrom52/2263683446/
  104. 104. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/07/31/business/20080801-metrics-graphic.html
  105. 105. Private layers (friends, notes) Opt-in layers (ads, paid content) Shared layers (maps, guides) The real world LAYER ZERO
  106. 106. Complexity of machines Future Tech 1 Internet Micro- processor Internal combustion Steam engine engine Ramp Pulley
  107. 107. http://www.atclabs.com/Photos/mite.jpg
  108. 108. http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/3575/lawdomeicecore6sy.jpg
  109. 109. http://www.uml.edu/wuml/podcast/media/nanotechnology-kd-001.jpg
  110. 110. http://thetruthorthefight.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/hubble-eagle-nebula-wide-field-04086y.jpg
  111. 111. http://www.nar.ucar.edu/2008/ESSL/sp1/images/sp1_01_cgd_1.jpg
  112. 112. http://whiteafrican.com/ wp-content/uploads/ 2008/05/ united_for_africa-499x3 83.png
  113. 113. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_spread_of_H5N1_map_%28August_13%29.PNG
  114. 114. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/pacificnw/2003/1221/cover_graphic.html
  115. 115. Data generated by humanity Web of sensors Web of humans Web of documents Printing press Scribes Song Poem
  116. 116. See the big picture.
  117. 117. http://www.gosfordhobbies.com.au/shop/images/P/lge-630.jpg
  118. 118. http://www.optics.arizona.edu/Nofziger/UNVR195a/Day1/EMspectrum1.jpg
  119. 119. http://akamaipix.crutchfield.com/ca/reviews/20030722/speaker_freq.jpg
  120. 120. http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/kashmir_scale_1997.jpg
  121. 121. 100 75 50 25 0 2008 2009 http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  122. 122. 100 75 50 Taxonomies & layers 25 0 2008 2009 What is the cloud? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  123. 123. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Taxonomies business & layers cases 25 0 2008 2009 What is Why the cloud? should I use it? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  124. 124. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Designs & Taxonomies business best & layers cases practices 25 0 2008 2009 2010 What is Why How do I the cloud? should I use it? use it? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  125. 125. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Designs & Taxonomies Business business best & layers strategy cases practices 25 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 What is Why How do I What new the cloud? should I use it? things are use it? possible? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  126. 126. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Designs & Taxonomies Business Policy & business best & layers strategy standards cases practices 25 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 What is Why How do I What new What must the cloud? should I use it? things are I still run use it? possible? in-house? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  127. 127. Thanks! @acroll alistair@bitcurrent.com www.human20.com www.rentedmetal.com

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