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Science, evidence and data in
government
Sir Mark Walport,
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
2 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Sir Harry Campion
• First director of the Central Statistic...
3
• Knowledge translated to economic advantage
• Wellbeing, health & resilience – infrastructure
• The right science for e...
4
1. Aging, cities, demography
2. Energy, climate change and the natural
environment
3. The economy, the City, the world i...
5
Bringing a
multidisciplinary
approach to the
challenges facing
government
Dave Ramsden
1,350
Economists
Tony O’Connor
45...
6 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
A network of Chief Scientific Advisers
Prof
Chris Whitty
DF...
• Data
• Information
• Knowledge
• Application
7
From data to knowledge to society
Science, evidence and data in governmen...
8 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Vemurafenib – oral targeted therapy for treatment of metast...
• Defining & refining the
question
• Data collection
• Analysis
• Visualisation
• Inference
Information
9
From data to inf...
• Science is about asking
questions
• New techniques allow us to
ask new questions
• New ways of collecting data
allow us ...
11 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
• One of the oldest
continuous agronomic
experiments in th...
• Data is being collected in different ways
• Users submit photos and locations of sightings to a
team who refer them on t...
13
• Developed by Boston's Mayor's Office of
New Urban Mechanics
Built environment
• Street Bump uses crowd
sourcing to im...
14
Long-term climate data
Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
mean
(1961-1990)
= 0
Source: Met Of...
15
New technology – gigantic scale
Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
© Crown copyright Met Offi...
Geoposition data
16 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Source: Sir
Stuart Peach,
Cambridge
Confe...
Analysing big data
• Total Scottish Population 5.2M
• People with diabetes : 251,132 (4.9%)
• People with Type 1 DM : ~27,...
18
PercentageofPatients
Data recorded within the previous 15 months
http://www.diabetesinscotland.org.uk/Publications/SDS%...
Diabetes Care 2008Diabetic Medicine 2009
Courtesy of Andrew Morris
Improved clinical outcomes
19 Science, evidence and dat...
20 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Demography
Future of Demographic Change project:
• A growi...
Polar area diagram by Florence Nightingale illustrating causes of mortality during the Crimean War (1857)
21 Science, evid...
The UK may be considered to be a small emitter
compared to some other countries
22
Source: The Carbon Map
Tonnes
CO2 per
c...
But looking at historical emissions tells a different story
23
Source: The Carbon Map
Tonnes
CO2 per
capita
Science, evide...
Source: gapminder.org
Visualising data – Hans Rosling
24 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
1.Communication and misuse
2. Privacy
3. Skills
25 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Challenges...
26 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
• Need for us all to be clear in communicating
• Especiall...
27 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
• ‘Cone of uncertainty’ diagram – line shows most
likely p...
High emissions scenarios project warming of
around 4°C by the end of the century, strong
mitigation scenarios limit this t...
Risk vs Hazard
Radiation
Dosage
Chart
Sources:
InformationisBeautiful.net
BBC, Guardian Datablog, Mayo Clinic
data: bit.ly...
30 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Source: http://understandinguncertainty.org/micromorts
Ris...
31 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
• There are many “publics”
• Public values play a key part...
Public values on energy
Summary of core public values on energy system change
32
Source: UKERC Transforming the UK Energy ...
33 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Misuse of statistics: Visualising data not
propaganda
• Fi...
34 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Misuse of statistics: safeguards
• The UK Statistics Autho...
35
• Personal information is individual &
precious to each one of us – it’s vital that we
treat it properly
• A balancing ...
36 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Skills pipeline
Source: DfE
Mathematics teacher recruitmen...
37
CST work: The Age of Algorithms
Schools Universities Jobs
• Recruit more teachers trained
in computer science
• Embrace...
38
We all need to work together
Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Universities Industry
39
How can we help each other
Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd
September 2013
Central Intelligence Agency
Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material.
We...
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Science, evidence and data in government presentation

Presentation by Sir Mark Walport at the annual conference of the Royal Statistical Society on 3 September 2013.

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Science, evidence and data in government presentation

  1. 1. Science, evidence and data in government Sir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
  2. 2. 2 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Sir Harry Campion • First director of the Central Statistical Office, forerunner to the current ONS. Was director from 1941 until his retirement in 1967 • Helped to organise the creation of the United Nations Statistical Office in 1946 • President of the Royal Statistical Society from 1957 to 1959. In 1996 left a bequest, with money going to the Campion Fellowship and the RSS Historical Fund • Other posts included President of the International Statistical Institute and Vice-President of the Manchester Statistical Society (1905 – 1996) © National Portrait Gallery
  3. 3. 3 • Knowledge translated to economic advantage • Wellbeing, health & resilience – infrastructure • The right science for emergencies • Underpinning policy with evidence • Advocacy and leadership for science Government Office for Science Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 © iStockPhoto
  4. 4. 4 1. Aging, cities, demography 2. Energy, climate change and the natural environment 3. The economy, the City, the world in trade 4. Manufacturing, materials science, innovation 5. Data, infrastructure, identity 6. Principles of government decision-making: risk, resilience, contingency Themes of GO-Science work All activities need to be underpinned by evidence, analysis and data Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
  5. 5. 5 Bringing a multidisciplinary approach to the challenges facing government Dave Ramsden 1,350 Economists Tony O’Connor 450 Operational Researchers Jil Matheson 1,600 Statisticians Jenny Dibden 950 Social Researchers Mark Walport 12,000 Scientists & Engineers Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
  6. 6. 6 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 A network of Chief Scientific Advisers Prof Chris Whitty DFID Prof Dame Sally Davies DH Prof Robin Grimes FCO Carole Willis DfE Prof John Perkins BIS Prof David Mackay DECC Prof Rod Smith DfT Dr Bill Gunnyeon DWP Dr James Richardson HMT Prof Bernard Silverman Home Office Prof Peter Freer Smith Forestry C. Dr Andrew Wadge FSA Rebecca Endean MoJ Dr David Bench HSE Prof Julia Slingo Met Office Prof Vernon Gibson MOD Prof Ian Boyd DEFRA Prof Bernadette Hannigan NI Interim CSA Prof Muffy Calder Scotland
  7. 7. • Data • Information • Knowledge • Application 7 From data to knowledge to society Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 GrowthResilience Policy & service delivery Societal Benefit
  8. 8. 8 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Vemurafenib – oral targeted therapy for treatment of metastatic malignant melanoma in patients whose tumors carry the BRAFV600E mutation. Approximately 60% of melanoma patients have tumors that carry this mutation From data to knowledge to society © Plexxikon Inc
  9. 9. • Defining & refining the question • Data collection • Analysis • Visualisation • Inference Information 9 From data to information using statistics Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Application of Statistics at all levels Communication
  10. 10. • Science is about asking questions • New techniques allow us to ask new questions • New ways of collecting data allow us to ask new questions 10 Defining & refining the question Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 © iStockPhoto
  11. 11. 11 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 • One of the oldest continuous agronomic experiments in the world – started in 1843 Old ways of collecting data Herbicides and fertilisers Herbicides but no fertilisers No herbicides Rothamsted’s Broadbalk Winter Wheat Experiment
  12. 12. • Data is being collected in different ways • Users submit photos and locations of sightings to a team who refer them on to the Forestry Commission, which is leading efforts to stop the disease's spread with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) 12 Chalara spread: 1992-2012 New ways of collecting data Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
  13. 13. 13 • Developed by Boston's Mayor's Office of New Urban Mechanics Built environment • Street Bump uses crowd sourcing to improve neighbourhood streets by collecting road condition data while they drive • Utilises two of the phone’s sensors, its accelerometer and GPS. The sensors detect “bumps” that the City maps Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
  14. 14. 14 Long-term climate data Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 mean (1961-1990) = 0 Source: Met Office Hadley Centre (2013) Global historical surface temperature anomalies
  15. 15. 15 New technology – gigantic scale Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 © Crown copyright Met Office From data from observations To forecasting winds, rainfall, temperature
  16. 16. Geoposition data 16 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Source: Sir Stuart Peach, Cambridge Conference 2013 Tactical level analysis: Ditch & Flow in Helmand Tribal Distributions Population density Population movements Terrain Elevation Data Topographic Data Combined Operating Picture Oceanographic Data Hydrographic Data Meteorological Data Aeronautical Data Geodetic Data CrawlStalkWalk
  17. 17. Analysing big data • Total Scottish Population 5.2M • People with diabetes : 251,132 (4.9%) • People with Type 1 DM : ~27,000 (0.5%) • All patients nationally are registered onto a single register; the SCI-DC register • SCI-DC used in all 38 hospitals • Nightly capture of data from all 1043 primary care practices across Scotland Courtesy of Andrew Morris 17 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Harnessing ICT: A national diabetes system for Scotland
  18. 18. 18 PercentageofPatients Data recorded within the previous 15 months http://www.diabetesinscotland.org.uk/Publications/SDS%202010.pdf Courtesy of Andrew Morris Scottish Diabetes Survey – over 90% capture of key variables since 2007 Recording of Key Biomedical Markers Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Accountability of services
  19. 19. Diabetes Care 2008Diabetic Medicine 2009 Courtesy of Andrew Morris Improved clinical outcomes 19 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
  20. 20. 20 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Demography Future of Demographic Change project: • A growing population • An ageing population • Local variation at all scales • Increasing diversity • Demographic changes will have an impact Graphic by The Guardian, 2010. Source data: ONS, Population by Local Authority, 2010 UK population change 1999-2009 by local authority
  21. 21. Polar area diagram by Florence Nightingale illustrating causes of mortality during the Crimean War (1857) 21 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Turning data into information
  22. 22. The UK may be considered to be a small emitter compared to some other countries 22 Source: The Carbon Map Tonnes CO2 per capita Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Visualising emissions data
  23. 23. But looking at historical emissions tells a different story 23 Source: The Carbon Map Tonnes CO2 per capita Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Visualising emissions data
  24. 24. Source: gapminder.org Visualising data – Hans Rosling 24 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
  25. 25. 1.Communication and misuse 2. Privacy 3. Skills 25 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Challenges AndyHedges / CC BY-SA 3.0
  26. 26. 26 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 • Need for us all to be clear in communicating • Especially where:- - the science or statistics are complicated - there are uncertainties - big press interest - emergency situation • Direct language and clear diagrams – but without losing the nuances Communication: uncertainty and getting our message across
  27. 27. 27 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 • ‘Cone of uncertainty’ diagram – line shows most likely path of hurricane and the uncertainty displayed by the white region indicating a 2 in 3 chance of containing the path • But the most likely path provides false sense of security to people living away from the black line • For Hurricane Irene in 2011 a ‘spaghetti plot’ of possible paths were shown on TV, each path arising from a different forecasting model • Communicates uncertainty of the path better than the ‘cone of uncertainty’ Communication: uncertainty and getting our message across
  28. 28. High emissions scenarios project warming of around 4°C by the end of the century, strong mitigation scenarios limit this to 2°C 28 • Even in the strong mitigation scenario we are still committed to further climate change for the next 2 to 3 decades, due to inertia in the climate system • How much the climate warms after mid- century depends on how long global action on mitigation is delayed Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Uncertainty of predictions
  29. 29. Risk vs Hazard Radiation Dosage Chart Sources: InformationisBeautiful.net BBC, Guardian Datablog, Mayo Clinic data: bit.ly/radiationchart Micro-Sievert (µSv) 0.1 µSv 1.0 µSv 10 µSv 100 µSv 1000 µSv 0.1 – Eating a banana 0.4 – Natural radiation in human body 40 – Flight from New York to LA 70 – Living in a stone, brick or concrete building for a year 100 – Chest X-ray 250 – Release limit for a nuclear power plant for a year 400 – Yearly dose per person from food per year 1000 – EPA yearly limit on radiation exposure to member of public 1.0 – Using CRT monitor for a year 3.5 – Extra dose from one day in average town near the Fukushima plant 5.0 – Dental X-ray 10 – Background dose received by average person on an average day 29 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
  30. 30. 30 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Source: http://understandinguncertainty.org/micromorts Risk communication – Micromort • Comparing small lethal risks (acute risks) difficult • Micromort: 1 in a million chance of death • Translates risk into easily comparable units Walk Cycle Motor bike Car Micromorts per 100 miles travelled
  31. 31. 31 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 • There are many “publics” • Public values play a key part in how people respond • Predictable “fright factors” – feelings of lack of control e.g. multinational companies’ monopoly of a new technology • Need to build “trust” (impartiality/credibility of the commentator) • Acknowledge and respect the “feelings” of those responding Communication: understand your audience
  32. 32. Public values on energy Summary of core public values on energy system change 32 Source: UKERC Transforming the UK Energy System: Public Values, Attitudes and Acceptability • 73% of respondents agree Britain should reduce energy use • 79% of respondents say UK should reduce use of fossil fuels. Predominant reason was unsustainable nature of fossil fuels and environmental harm • 83% of respondents are fairly or very concerned that in the next 10-20 years electricity and gas will become unaffordable for them Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 • To understand public preferences need to understand public values • Public preferences change with context, but values and principles guide decisions and engagement
  33. 33. 33 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Misuse of statistics: Visualising data not propaganda • Figures are factually correct • But infographic is misleading • From the North South Wales Ministry of Health, March 2013 Source: Guardian Data Blog
  34. 34. 34 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Misuse of statistics: safeguards • The UK Statistics Authority – Whitehall’s statistics watchdog • Chairman Andrew Dilnot can comment on perceived misuse of official statistics • Groups such as Straight Statistics, Sense About Science and online blogs (e.g. Ben Goldacre’s Bad Science) now work to highlight misuse of evidence • Promoting a culture of open access and providing links to referenced studies will allow for people to scrutinise the statistics • Improving the accessibility of the ONS website • Improve mathematics and statistics in education (as suggested in the 2012 CST letter on STEM Education)
  35. 35. 35 • Personal information is individual & precious to each one of us – it’s vital that we treat it properly • A balancing act…between the right to privacy and the necessity to hold and share data • A framework is needed: - to protect individuals - build & maintain confidence - facilitate research Privacy Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Wellcome / BY-NC-ND 2.0
  36. 36. 36 Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Skills pipeline Source: DfE Mathematics teacher recruitment shortfall/surplus
  37. 37. 37 CST work: The Age of Algorithms Schools Universities Jobs • Recruit more teachers trained in computer science • Embrace Continuing Professional Development (CPD) • Incorporate logic, algorithms and statistics into post-16 mathematics courses • Government should sponsor new Computer Literacy Campaign highlighting learning opportunities for individuals, schools and businesses • Cooperation between computer science departments and private sector to develop multidisciplinary courses for practical application of data science • Create a National Centre to promote advanced research and translational work in algorithms and application of data science Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013
  38. 38. 38 We all need to work together Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Universities Industry
  39. 39. 39 How can we help each other Science, evidence and data in government, 3rd September 2013 Central Intelligence Agency
  40. 40. Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through enquiries@bis.gsi.gov.uk . Science, evidence and data in government Presentation made to the Royal Statistical Society annual conference, September 2013 Sir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government

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  • SethLabadie

    Oct. 14, 2014

Presentation by Sir Mark Walport at the annual conference of the Royal Statistical Society on 3 September 2013.

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