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Peter Verweij

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Peter Verweij

  1. 1. http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 1
  2. 2. http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 2
  3. 3. http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 3
  4. 4. Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT) an engineering perspective Peter Verweij Alterra, Wageningen-UR www.sensor-ip.org 28/05/2010 http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI/ 4
  5. 5. SENSOR project  Develop cross sectoral ex-ante Impact Assessment Tools to support decision making on policies related multifunctional land use in EU  Consortium with 39 Research Institutions  15 EU Countries  China, Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay  >100 researchers  Project duration: Dec 2004 – May 2009  Regional scale with European coverage  Constraint: use existing pan-European data  Main product: SIAT for discussion support http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 5
  6. 6. EU – Impact Assessment  Ex-ante SIA is a procedure accompanying policy development at European Commission. It is to analyse sustainability impacts and side effects of an intended policy option  Identify the problem  Define the objectives  Develop main policy options  Analyse their impacts  Compare the options SIAT focus  Outline policy monitoring and evaluation http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 6
  7. 7. Impact assessment  Ex-ante analysis of impacts of potential policies  Involves determining economic, environmental and social impacts of policy options Policy Outlook Policy Concerns a Impact Carried out for a Possible objective Assessment (number of) future Is defined Can be reached by Compares by a several Policy option Indicators Baseline drives (scoring varies per drives (defined by policy spatial entity) scenario instruments) http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 7
  8. 8. Policy  Potential policies are grouped in policy cases around a number of central themes that are important in multi-functional land use  Bio-energy Promotion of production and consumption  Bio-diversity Conservation of nature areas and in relation to agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.  Common Agricultural Policy financial reform Continuation vs promotion of knowledge economy  Forest strategy http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 8
  9. 9. Outlook  Extrapolating scenarios for exogenous parameters (e.g. climate change, or population growth)  Expert judgement to tweak possible trends Baseline A Baseline B Baseline C Past Present Future http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 9
  10. 10. Drivers to indicators (1/3) Drivers Spatial explicit indicators (e.g. policy, Convert (quantitative and/or technological innovations, qualitative) Climate change, population growth) Conversion in SIAT system by:  Look up indicator values in database  Modeling  (meta) model  Knowledge rule  Chain of models  Mixture of the above http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 10
  11. 11. Drivers to indicators (2/3) Convert Land use • Summaries of the most changes important societal, [meta model] environmental en economical aspects of a region • contain region specific Indicators Drivers Impact sustainability limits per indicator indicator (standards, thresholds, targets,…) [knowledge rule] Static maps Land use function [database] s [model] http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 11
  12. 12. Drivers to indicators (3/3) meta-model sources Multi-sectoral land use models Sectoral land use models National NEMISIS Sectoral models (CAPRI EFISCEN Nuts 2/3 Etc.) CLUE 1x1 km2 http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 12
  13. 13. SIAT requirements  Interactive web based tool to estimate the possible consequences of different policy assumptions on land use on sustainability within different images of the future.  Identify areas that are sensitive to particular policies  Identify regional differences and analyse causes  look at potential ‘trade-offs’  Examine the concept of sustainability tolerance limits  undertake all analysis dynamically  Be able to compare different scenarios  Flexible in terms of:  New policies / baselines / target times  Regionalisations (extent and resolution)  Indicators http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 13
  14. 14. System architecture SIAT user interface Messaging Messaging Messaging Resources Map services (e.g. factsheets) Simulation services OpenMI Persistence OpenMI Model OpenMI Model OpenMI Spatial Model database http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 14
  15. 15. Startup screen http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 15
  16. 16. Background: factsheet example http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 16
  17. 17. Define your simulation (1/3) http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 17
  18. 18. Define your simulation (2/3) http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 18
  19. 19. Define your simulation (3/3) http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 19
  20. 20. Determine impacts at EU level Radar chart: look at trade offs http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 20
  21. 21. Analyse impacts Europe single member state http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 21
  22. 22. Analyse impacts: example Land use functions of several cluster regions http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 22
  23. 23. Analyse impacts: example Indicators of several NutsX regions http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 23
  24. 24. Limit sensitivity http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 24
  25. 25. Drill down Land Use Function http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 25
  26. 26. Compare simulations http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 26
  27. 27. Summary  Discussion support  Result analysis (e.g. find trade-offs, regional differences)  Describe assumptions (factsheets)  Explore causal links (drill down and factsheets)  Flexible component based framework  Policies (policy case, baseline, policy instruments, indicators, regionalisations, target times, factsheets, etc.)  Visualisations  Data / models  Integration of different model types (present and future models)  Examine concept of sustainability limits using LUF approach http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 27
  28. 28. End of slideshow http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 28
  29. 29. Baseline: business as usual http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 29
  30. 30. Policy case: CAP reform http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI 30

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