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"Breaking up pharma´s value chain - what can we expect", MICHAEL MÜLLER
3.
MONACON
If healthcare expenditure continued simply following demographics,
cost would reach 30% of total GDP
3
Projected Healthcare spend
OECD countries 2005 2030 2050 2070
US 15.3 24.9 36.7 65.0
Switzerland 11.6 18.8 27.8 49.8
France 11.1 18.0 26.6 47.6
Germany 10.7 17.4 25.6 45.9
Greece 10.1 16.4 24.2 43.3
Canada 9.8 15.9 23.5 42.0
Netherlands 9.2 14.9 22.0 39.5
Denmark 9.1 14.8 21.8 39.0
Italy 8.9 14.5 21.3 38.2
UK 8.3 13.5 19.9 35.8
Turkey 7.6 12.3 18.2 32.6
Mexico 6.4 10.4 15.3 27.5
• Need for systematic
change
• Paradigm shift required
• Traditional models in dead
end now
<10%
10-15% >25%
15-25%
Percent of GDP
Source: Extrapolation of current growth relative to OECD GDP growth
9.
MONACONadvice & investment in healthcare
Paradigms are shifting
1. Genome sequencing and personalized medicine will revolutionize diagnostics
and treatment
2. Prevention will develop into an essential market segment, preventing
diseases from the earliest possible point on and will monitor disease progression
or rehabilitation of patients closely
3. IT and communication will become an integral part of pharma & healthcare,
allowing firms and institutions to generate and access big data and share
knowledge in real-time
4. Payors will adapt to a new paradigm, using risk shared financing and novel
infrastructure
5. The industry will break fresh grounds, turning away from the conventional
model of R&D and sales, focusing on innovations generated outside the
traditional core competences
6. Secrecy has become a dogma of the past