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DutchMLSchool. Machine Learning: Why Now?

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Machine Learning: Why Now? - ML for Executives Course.
DutchMLSchool: 1st edition of the Machine Learning Summer School in The Netherlands.

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DutchMLSchool. Machine Learning: Why Now?

  1. 1. 1st edition | July 8-11, 2019
  2. 2. BigML, Inc #DutchMLSchool Machine Learning: Why Now? A Pathway to Reliable Decision Engineering Atakan Cetinsoy VP - Predictive Applications, BigML 2
  3. 3. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante3 What is Machine Learning?
  4. 4. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Machine Learning in a Nutshell 4 Finding patterns in data, that can be used to make useful inferences Predictive ModelsID COUNTRY CITY DAYS SINCE LAST PURCHASE PAGE VIEWS LTV WILL PURCHASE TODAY? xyz US SEA 5 22 1448 Yes abc US PBI 8 9 2330 No def US CLT 20 2 22296 Yes nnx US MIA 4 19 32342 Yes sbd US ANC 1 21 1144 Yes fjm US MSP 5 8 1589 No cft US MSP 6 7 1299 No amt US CLT 14 2 1250 Yes AA US DFW 1 13 1464 No vgg US ATL 3 15 17471 Yes 4
  5. 5. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Do You Need Machine Learning? 5 HOW MANY VARIABLES? > 3 HOW MANY METRICS? > 3 YOU WANT MACHINE LEARNING YOU WANT MACHINE LEARNING
  6. 6. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante The Machine Learning Paradigm Shift 66 COMPLEXITYOFTASKS TIME20th century 21st century - + COMPLEXITYOFTASKS TIME20th century 21st century - +
  7. 7. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Traditional Programming 77 • Business rules, heuristics sourced from tribal knowledge are commonplace approaches to determine various courses of action in a typical workflow.
  8. 8. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Machine Learning-ready Data 88 ID COUNTRY CITY DAYS SINCE LAST PURCHASE PAGE VIEWS LTV PURCHASE TODAY? xyz US SEA 5 22 1448 Yes abc US PBI 8 9 2330 No def US CLT 20 2 22296 Yes nnx US MIA 4 19 32342 Yes sbd US ANC 1 21 1144 Yes fjm US MSP 5 8 1589 No cft US MSP 6 7 1299 No amt US CLT 14 2 1250 Yes AA US DFW 1 13 1464 No vgg US ATL 3 15 17471 Yes
  9. 9. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante The Machine Learning Workflow 99 Instances Data New Instance Prediction Confidence % ML Algorithm LEARNING OR TRAINING Evaluation Predictive Model SCORING OR PREDICTING
  10. 10. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Programming with Machine Learning • Ultimately, Machine Learning is all about transforming data into models that can be used to automate decision making. 1010 ID COUNTRY CITY DAYS SINCE LAST PURCHASE PAGE VIEWS LTV PURCHASE TODAY? xyz US SEA 5 22 1448 Yes abc US PBI 8 9 2330 No def US CLT 20 2 22296 Yes nnx US MIA 4 19 32342 Yes sbd US ANC 1 21 1144 Yes fjm US MSP 5 8 1589 No cft US MSP 6 7 1299 No amt US CLT 14 2 1250 Yes AA US DFW 1 13 1464 No vgg US ATL 3 15 17471 Yes
  11. 11. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Machine Learning Output — Predictions BIGGER DISCOUNT TO BEST CUSTOMERS 1111
  12. 12. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante12 ML Early Adopters
  13. 13. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Machine Learning — Why Now? 13 Maturity of ML Techniques Cost of Computation Abundance of Data Speed of Computation Easier Tools
  14. 14. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Early Adopters — Google 14 • "Machine learning is a core, transformative way by which we’re re-thinking how we’re doing everything. We are thoughtfully applying it across all our products, be it search, ads, YouTube, or Play. And we're in early days, but you will see us — in a systematic way — apply machine learning in all these areas." — Sundar Pichai, CEO
  15. 15. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Early Adopters — Amazon 15 “Machine learning is a horizontal enabling layer. It will empower and improve every business, every government organization, every philanthropy — basically there’s no institution in the world that cannot be improved with machine learning.” “I would say, a lot of the value that we’re getting from machine learning is actually happening beneath the surface. It is things like improved search results. Improved product recommendations for customers. Improved forecasting for inventory management. Literally hundreds of other things beneath the surface." https://www.economist.com/business/2019/04/13/amazons-empire-rests-on-its-low-key-approach-to-ai — Jeff Bezos, CEO
  16. 16. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Industry Example — Banking 1616 CLASSIFICATION REGRESSION TIME SERIES FORECASTING CLUSTER ANALYSIS ANOMALY DETECTION ASSOCIATION DISCOVERY Will this client default? How much cash will this ATM need? What will be the funds in this deposit account in 3 months? Which products behave similarly? Is this transaction fraudulent? Which products will the client buy together?
  17. 17. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Machine Learning tools are extremely complex Machine Learning is intrinsically complicated 17 Most businesses FAIL at Machine Learning :( is going to revolutionize every industry and every organization BUT... Machine Learning
  18. 18. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante18 Machine Learning False Starts
  19. 19. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante The AI Misinformation Epidemic 19
  20. 20. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Got ML Strategy? 20 • Imitation does NOT a strategy make! — Simon Wardley, Business Strategy Guru SOURCE: https://blog.gardeviance.org/2013/01/the-importance-of-maps.html
  21. 21. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante The AI FoMo 21
  22. 22. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Overpromised, Underdelivered 22
  23. 23. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante The Big Data Craze • Unlike “Big Data”, Machine Learning is here to stay. 23
  24. 24. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Hiring Microwave Engineers 24 SOURCE: https://hackernoon.com/why-businesses-fail-at-machine-learning-fbff41c4d5db
  25. 25. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Ignoring the Reality of a ML Application 25 Data TransformationsFeature Engineering Data Collection Evaluation & Retraining Unseen SeenSelf-Driving Cars?
  26. 26. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Building a Machine Learning Product 26 Reality https://medium.com/thelaunchpad/the-ml-surprise-f54706361a6c Expectation 10.50 0.25 0.75 SOURCE: https://medium.com/thelaunchpad/the-ml-surprise-f54706361a6c
  27. 27. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Overhyped or Underrated? 27
  28. 28. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Hindsight is 20/20 28 First Flight First Commercial Jet Flight < 50 years 1903 1952
  29. 29. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante29 Machine Learning: Take II
  30. 30. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante We Got This! 30 Taking a step back to see the big picture… …and charging ahead with a better plan!
  31. 31. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante The Need for Data-driven Decisions 31 • Human intuition is poor • Human judgement is biased • Human reasoning is causal, not statistical • These shortcomings are further compounded in complex organizations! “ We [humans] are narrow thinkers, we are noisy thinkers, and it is very easy to improve upon us. I do not think that there is very much that we can do that computers will not eventually learn to do. ” — Prof. Daniel Kahneman, Behavioral Economist Nobel Laureate, 2002
  32. 32. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante The Need for Data-driven Decisions 32 •These cognitive biases and the associated adverse effects are further compounded within workgroups across complex organizations! Nobel Laureate, 2002
  33. 33. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante The Economics of Machine Learning 33
  34. 34. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Cheap Changes Everything 34 The Microprocessor Revolution Cheap Arithmetics The Internet Revolution Cheap Communications ((Email Mutimedia Social Mobile)) 1980/90s — 1990/2000s — + Fast + Error-free/Better Search Distribution => =>
  35. 35. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante The Economics of Machine Learning • As the unit cost of predictions go down, many facets of decision making will be automated. 35 The Machine Learning Revolution Cheap Predictions 2010s — + Fast (i.e., milliseconds) + Better: Quantifiable/Near Human-level Error Rates =>
  36. 36. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Deconstructing Business Workflows 36 Workflow ABC Task #1 Task #2 Task #3 Task #4 Decisions Job #1 Job #2 Job #3 Task #5 Decisions
  37. 37. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Anatomy of a Task • Redesigning tasks with fewer human predictions, more cheap predictions… 37 Input Data SOURCE: http://martin.zinkevich.org/rules_of_ml/rules_of_ml.pdf Judgment Prediction Action Outcome Feedback Data } Training Data Human Expert Model
  38. 38. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Decision Automation Options BIGGER DISCOUNT TO BEST CUSTOMERS 3838 Low Medium BUSINESS RISK High High MODEL COMPETENCE •As the amount of data goes up, the importance of human judgment should go down. MANUAL AUGMENT AUGMENT AUTOMATE
  39. 39. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Machine Learning Adoption Phases 3939 PROGRAMMATIC ML ACCESSPOINT & CLICK ACCESS AUTOMATED ML WORKFLOWS FIRST USER WITHIN A SINGLE DEPARTMENT MULTIPLE USERS/ USE CASES IN ONE DEPARTMENT MULTIPLE USERS ACROSS MULTIPLE DEPARTMENTS EVERYONE IN THE ORGANIZATION ML Automation MLAdoption PREDICTIVE APP BIGML DASHBOARD BIGML API WHIZZML
  40. 40. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Applied Machine Learning Best Practices 40 SOURCE: http://martin.zinkevich.org/rules_of_ml/rules_of_ml.pdf SOURCE: https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/ research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/43146.pdf
  41. 41. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Decision Engineering — A New Discipline ➡ Consistently improve the quality of decisions being made ➡ Speed up decision making ➡ Align organizational resources more effectively to adapt to changes in decisions ➡ Lower the risk associated with decisions 41 • Decision [Intelligence] Engineering (aka data-driven decision making) is mainly about using data to inform organizational decisions at scale. • Can we design a structured approach to complex decision making under uncertainty by unifying social sciences, engineering best practices and Machine Learning — even for non-technical decision makers?
  42. 42. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Machine Learning Accessibility 42 SOURCE: https://hbr.org/2019/06/when-ai-becomes-an-everyday-technology “ After years of hype around mysterious neural networks and the PhD researchers who design them, we’re entering an age in which just about anyone can leverage the power of intelligent algorithms to solve the problems that matter to them. Ironically, although breakthroughs get the headlines, it’s accessibility that really changes the world. That’s why, after such an eventful decade, a lack of hype around machine learning may be the most exciting development yet.” — Andrew Moore, Google
  43. 43. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante43 Conclusion
  44. 44. BigML, Inc#DutchMLSchool @atakante Takeaways 44 • Machine Learning is the steam engine of the XXI. century. • When applied methodically, it helps solve complex problems at human-level performance. • When applied systematically, it can dramatically improve the performance of an organization (regardless of sizes or industry).
  45. 45. Co-organized by: Sponsor: Business Partners:

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