BH Report: Is the world a better place today? 2013/8/2
Context 
•If you ask anybody today, "is world perfect?" the answer is most likely "no" – people may disagree on what a per...
Executive summary 
(2) Food supply 
(3) Liberty 
(4) Happiness 
Overall implications 
(1) Wars and conflicts 
•We are livi...
Agenda 
•(1) Wars and conflicts 
•(2) Food supply 
•(3) Liberty 
•(4) Happiness 
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysi...
Summary: (1) Wars and conflicts 
•NOTE: I fully acknowledge that analyzing death counts could be very misleading... there ...
How many people died from wars and conflicts each year? 
0 
500 
6,500 
Average # of deaths from wars and conflicts (thous...
What percentage of world population does that represent? 
0.00% 
0.15% 
0.20% 
0.10% 
0.30% 
0.05% 
0.25% 
0.258% 
1940’s ...
How does this compare to historical trends for the last 
2000 years ? 
0.00% 
0.05% 
0.10% 
0.15% 
1700- 
1800 
1800- 
190...
Agenda 
•(1) Wars and conflicts 
•(2) Food supply 
•(3) Liberty 
•(4) Happiness 
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysi...
Summary: (2) Food supply 
•Global food supply situation improved over the last 50 years 
–Population doubled but food prod...
In the last 50 years, population doubled, but food 
production tripled (= more food supply per person) 
1998 
1997 
1996 
...
Back-up: Cereals (esp. wheat & rice) are the largest sources 
of the global food supply; meat & fish relatively small 
5% ...
Enough food supply to feed the world on average... issue with variations across countries and within each country 
3,000 
...
Percentage of 'undernourished people' was declining until 
mid 90's... but, limited improvement in the last 15 years 
920 ...
Number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number/ percentage of 'undernourished people' in the future... 
Challen...
Agenda 
•(1) Wars and conflicts 
•(2) Food supply 
•(3) Liberty 
•(4) Happiness 
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysi...
Summary: (3) Liberty 
•NOTE: I'm making a gross generalization that that "democratic" government is "better" in this repor...
Roughly ~65% of the world population lives under democratic 
government today (vs. ~40% in 1970) excluding China 
27 26 25...
Examples of countries who made the switch since 1970 
From autocratic to democratic 
Greece (1974 – 1975) 
Portugal (1974 ...
Long term trend has been to go toward democracy for the last 
200 years – though countries like France went back and forth...
Back-up: Approach and dataset used for the assessment of the level of democracy/autocracy 
Several government/ non-governm...
Agenda 
•(1) Wars and conflicts 
•(2) Food supply 
•(3) Liberty 
•(4) Happiness 
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysi...
Summary: (4) Happiness 
•Happiness is clearly a subjective matter, and is difficult to study – but there has been number o...
[US] Percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans have 
been virtually flat for the past 40 years 
33 
29 
32 32 32 33 3...
[US] It seems that majority of people (>80%) with household 
income above $50K are at least somewhat happy (i.e., "okay") ...
[US] Percentage of "very happy" go up with income level 
(NOTE: even the highest group is only at ~50% implying that no ma...
Cross-country comparison of self-reported happiness does not 
seems to show any obvious patterns (certainly not income) 
-...
Agenda 
•(1) Wars and conflicts 
•(2) Food supply 
•(3) Liberty 
•(4) Happiness 
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysi...
Average life expectancy 
1993 
1985 
1989 
1979 
1991 
1983 
1987 
1981 
2006 
2008 
1977 
1973 
2004 
1975 
2002 
40 
60 ...
Crude death rate 
3.0% 
4.0% 
0.0% 
1.0% 
2.0% 
1960 
1961 
1962 
1963 
1964 
1965 
Crude death rate (death as % of popula...
Infant mortality rate 
0% 
20% 
40% 
60% 
80% 
100% 
1960 
1961 
1962 
1963 
1964 
1965 
Infant mortality rate (% of infan...
Agenda 
•(1) Wars and conflicts 
•(2) Food supply 
•(3) Liberty 
•(4) Happiness 
•Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysi...
World Population is rapidly growing 
1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 
8,000 
10,000 
-1750 -1500 -1250 -1000 250 
4,000 
-20...
Growth trajectory of world population has been driven by 
major social events - it truly accelerated after WWII 
8,000 
6,...
Disclaimer 
This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a rec...
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20130802 BH Report: Is the World a Better Place today?

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20130802 BH Report: Is the World a Better Place today?

  1. 1. BH Report: Is the world a better place today? 2013/8/2
  2. 2. Context •If you ask anybody today, "is world perfect?" the answer is most likely "no" – people may disagree on what a perfect world should look like, but there are no questions that we have a lot of issues on our plate •At the same time, I felt that it must be at least "better" than yesterday... but is that really the case? Specifically – I wanted to answer following questions: "Objectively speaking, is the world a better place today than 10 years ago? how about 50 years ago, or 2000 years ago? If so, will it continue?" •To approach this problem, I chose the famous phrase from US Declaration of Independence "Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness" for the framework... i.e., I looked at following 4 topics –(1) Life: Wars and conflicts – are people less likely to die from wars and conflicts? –(2) Life: Food supply – is #/% of undernourished declining? do we have more food supply per person? –(3) Liberty – are more people under the rule of democratic government1 ? –(4) "Pursuit of" Happiness – did people become happier? what is driving happiness? [light touch] •NOTE: Any one of the topics covered in this is complicated enough to require deeper analysis (in fact, various organizations and scholars have put together many good reports on each individual topic) - my intent in this report is to try looking at these holistically to answer to overall question •NOTE: I did not cover some potentially highly relevant topics (e.g., Education, Access to healthcare, Social mobility) in this report for the belief that these are very important and yet secondary to above selected topics (... I could very well be wrong on this one... give me your thoughts if you think differently) 1. I'm making a gross generalization that that "democratic" government is "better" in this report... this is a much debated point for which I don't really have a strong point of view (for example, I don't have a good answer to the question "isn't benevolent dictatorship better than democracy?") I will have to revisit the question in the future...
  3. 3. Executive summary (2) Food supply (3) Liberty (4) Happiness Overall implications (1) Wars and conflicts •We are living in one of the most peaceful times in history •It has especially improved in the last 20 years (despite terrorisms, etc.) but need to continue our watch to keep away from large scale wars/conflicts given expected rise in population fighting over potentially scarce resources •Global food supply situation has improved significantly over the last 50 years during which population doubled, but food production tripled •However, this has not fully solved the problem of undernourishment (has remained at ~14% of world population for the last 15 years •Looking forward, number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number and the percentage of undernourished people in the future (e.g., income inequality, resources) •Long term trend of more countries becoming "democratic" – roughly 65% of world population lives under democratic government today vs. 40% in 1970 •Likely the trend continues •In the US, despite economic and social improvement, the percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans has been virtually flat for the last 40 years •Cross-country comparison shows that income is not the sole driver of happiness •Thank our predecessors who have contributed to making this world a better place – there has been clear improvements along many key dimensions over the last decades •There are still tons of rooms for improvements (~14% undernourished population, ~200K death from wars and conflicts p.a., ~5% of population living under autocratic governments) and anticipation for challenges to come (population growth vs. resources) •Recommendation: Make the best of life given to us, be happy and help push the world to a become even better place
  4. 4. Agenda •(1) Wars and conflicts •(2) Food supply •(3) Liberty •(4) Happiness •Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices •Appendix: World Population
  5. 5. Summary: (1) Wars and conflicts •NOTE: I fully acknowledge that analyzing death counts could be very misleading... there is an old quote "The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic1" ... it really shouldn't be that way •Despite how it feels (incessant news on terrorisms, civil wars and conflicts abroad), we are actually living in one of the most peaceful times in history •In terms of last 50 years... –Death toll was on the rise till 90's, but it has declined significantly in the last 20 years –Today, roughly ~200 thousand people die from wars and conflicts each year, which represents ~0.4% of death each year and ~0.003% of world population •Looking at longer time span (~2000 years)... –The percentage of death due to wars and conflicts (~0.003% of world population per year today) is at one of the lowest levels •Two biggest spikes of death from wars and conflicts you see in history are the World Wars and Mongolian Conquests in 13th century (both at roughly ~0.1% of world population per year) –But, it also seems that the history of wars and conflicts have been cyclical with ~400 years cycle •It is tempting to quickly dismiss the possibility of future large-scale war (that is comparable to World Wars) by saying that we have made progress as mankind and that we are much more globalized... but I think it is still valuable to identify what could potentially lead to such event, and try to solve for it2 1. The quote is often attributed to Joseph Stalin, but we apparently don't know who actually said this first 2. I don't have a full set of 'problems to be solved' but "how to allocate resources (e.g., food/water/oils) to growing population" and "how to reduce, or at least maintain the economic disparity "immediately come to my mind (1) Wars and conflicts
  6. 6. How many people died from wars and conflicts each year? 0 500 6,500 Average # of deaths from wars and conflicts (thousand people per year) 2010-2013 214 2000’s 455 1960’s 318 1950’s 279 1940’s 6,204 578 1990’s 720 1980’s 566 1970’s 95%+ from World War II Increase driven by internal conflicts (civil wars, insurgency, etc.) • Smaller death toll each, but larger number of conflicts... net result of increase in death per year Continued conflicts + some new large scale wars E.g., • 1st/2nd Congo War • Rwanda Civil War Some of the long term (20- 30 years) civil wars ended, and not many large scale new wars started • Iraq War was the biggest, but even that accounts for just 8% of the overall death tolls Death toll was on the rise till 90's, but it has declined significantly in the last 20 years despite the images of terrorisms and wars on terror Note: Based on 145 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 1940AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the duration of the war and conflict; 145 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA (1) Wars and conflicts
  7. 7. What percentage of world population does that represent? 0.00% 0.15% 0.20% 0.10% 0.30% 0.05% 0.25% 0.258% 1940’s 0.010% Average percentage of death from wars and conflicts (% of world population per year) 2010-2013 0.003% 2000’s 0.009% 1990’s 0.013% 1980’s 0.012% 1950’s 0.009% 1960’s 0.011% 1970’s Fairly small percentage of people die from wars and conflicts today (0.003%), and it also represents small portion of total death (0.4%) vs. other causes % of total death n/a n/a 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% Note: Based on 145 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 1940AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the duration of the war and conflict; 145 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA (1) Wars and conflicts
  8. 8. How does this compare to historical trends for the last 2000 years ? 0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 1700- 1800 1800- 1900 1950- 2000 1900- 1950 1600- 1700 1500- 1600 1400- 1500 1300- 1400 1200- 1300 1100- 1200 300- 400 Average percentage of death from wars and conflicts (% of world population per year) 1000- 1100 900- 1000 100- 200 200- 300 400- 500 500- 600 600- 700 700- 800 800- 900 0- 100 2000- 2013 NOTE: Based on partial data • Historical data (both death tolls and population) less reliable than last 100 years – For example, hard to believe that there were no wars/conflicts in 300- 400 and 600-700 • Intended to give a 'flavor' of how the percentage has changed over years World Wars Manchu Conquest, Thirty Years' War, etc. Mongol Conquests • One of the deadliest conflicts in history-spanned ~1200-1320AD1, conquering much of Asia + Eastern Europe, killing 30-60 million people (world population was ~400 million in 1200) An Lushan Rebellion, etc. We are living in one of the most peaceful time periods, AND History has been cyclical so far with ~400 year cycle2... let's hope it won't be going forward 1. Genghis Khan died in 1227, but the conquests continued. 2. I should note that the spikes you see in 100's, 200's, 700's and 1600's are all driven primarily by large internal conflicts in China – which has really been the only country with large enough population such that internal conflicts can make the graph spike... for example, American Civil War in 1861-1865 was the deadliest war in the US with ~1 million death, but it was much smaller compared to contemporary Taiping Rebellion in China with estimated ~20-30 million death Note: Based on 257 wars and conflicts that had death tolls in 0AD or later; used mid-point for death toll if there was an estimated range for death toll; assumed that death toll was evenly spread for the duration of the war and conflict; 257 wars and conflicts all had minimum death toll of at least 1,000 people; include death from genocides Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA (1) Wars and conflicts Yellow Turban Rebellion and Three Kingdoms Wars Hunnic Invasion, Gothic War
  9. 9. Agenda •(1) Wars and conflicts •(2) Food supply •(3) Liberty •(4) Happiness •Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices •Appendix: World Population
  10. 10. Summary: (2) Food supply •Global food supply situation improved over the last 50 years –Population doubled but food production tripled (= more food supply per person) –Technology-led productivity improvement (e.g., agrochemicals for crop yield) drove food supply growth •Today, on average basis, there is enough food supply to feed the whole world... however, there are sizable number of people who are 'undernourished' (~14%) because of the variations of food supply across countries AND within each country •Percentage of undernourished people was declining until mid 90's, but the improvement has been limited in the last 15 years –24% of the world was 'undernourished' back in 1970 –This came down to 14% by 1995, but it has remained at the level for the last 15 years •Looking forward, number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number and the percentage of undernourished people in the future –Food production growth needs to outpace global population growth (~expected to be around 0.8% CAGR through 2050) –Complex set of issues that need to be resolved (e.g., income inequality, gap in renewable water resources, lack of infrastructure and ineffective government policies/strategies in countries with significant undernourished population) (2) Food supply
  11. 11. In the last 50 years, population doubled, but food production tripled (= more food supply per person) 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 1964 1963 1962 1961 10.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1999 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Global food production1 (billion tonnes) 6.7 8.2 World population (billion) Global food production World population 1961 3.0 billion people, 2.7 billion tonnes of food produced, 2,043 kcal/person/day of food supply1 2009 6.7 billion people (2.2x) 8.2 billion tonnes of food (3.1x) 2,640 kcal/person/day of food supply1 (1.3x) 1. Note that not all of food production becomes food supply. In 2009, roughly 1 billion tonne (13%) was used as feed, 0.1 billion tonne (2%) was used as seed, 2.4 billion tonnes (30%) was used for food manufacturing and 0.7 billion tonne (9%) was used for other purposes – leaving 3.8 billion tonnes (47%) as food supply (=2,640 kcal per day per person) Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA Technology-led productivity improvement (e.g., agrochemicals for crop yield) has been the primary driver (2) Food supply
  12. 12. Back-up: Cereals (esp. wheat & rice) are the largest sources of the global food supply; meat & fish relatively small 5% 20% 15% Chicken Beef Other meat 100% 46% Pork 13% Total Fish 8% 3% 80 100 40 60 20 0 2009 All other Cereals Roots, vegetables, fruits, beans Sugar & sweetners Meat and fish Oil, oilcrops, animal fats 14% 15% 10% 49% % world food supply in terms of kcal Source: FAO 24% Beans/Peas 16% Total 100% Vegetables 36% Starchy roots (e.g. potatoes) Fruits 23% Other cereals 6% Maize 11% Rice 42% Total Wheat 41% 100% (2) Food supply
  13. 13. Enough food supply to feed the world on average... issue with variations across countries and within each country 3,000 4,000 0 1,000 2,000 Average 2,640 kcal/person/day Average annual food supply for the country (kcal per person per day) in 2009 India USA China Each box represents one of 176 countries mapped Population of the country in 2009 (= total 8.7 billion) Worst 15: Eritrea, Burundi, Zambia, Kenya, Haiti, Sudan, Palestinian Territory, Tajikistan, Botswana, Chad, Yemen, North Korea, Namibia, Congo, Ethiopia Top 15: Austria, Kuwait, Turkey, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, Egypt, USA, Israel, Ireland, Hungary, Morocco, Greece, Germany, Canada Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA Enough energy for ~70kg (~155lbs) individual to sustain body weight even with heavy level of exercise (2) Food supply
  14. 14. Percentage of 'undernourished people' was declining until mid 90's... but, limited improvement in the last 15 years 920 875 855 825 850 845 880 1970 1980 0 1975 2005 2010 800 600 400 200 1,000 1985 1990 1995 2000 Million people Number of 'undernourished' people in the world1 Percentage of 'undernourished' people in the world1 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 10 5 15 20 25 1995 2000 2005 2010 % of world population 14% 14% 14% 14% 16% 19% 24% 1. By the way, this is fairly academic statistic – it is defined by FAO in following phrasing "undernourishment exists when caloric intake is below the minimum dietary energy requirement (MDER). The MDER is the amount of energy needed for light activity and a minimum acceptable weight for attained height, and it varies by country and from year to year depending on the gender and age structure of the population" Source: FAO; US Census Bureau; UNDESA (2) Food supply
  15. 15. Number of issues need to be resolved to reduce the number/ percentage of 'undernourished people' in the future... Challenges Global population is expected to grow to ~9.2 billion people (37% growth, 0.8% CAGR) by 2050 •Nearly all of the growth will take place in developing countries This implies that food supply needs to grow at FASTER rate than 0.8% CAGR •Because most of incremental population growth will come from developing countries – and will face economic challenges unless relative price of food declines This has been feasible in the last decades due to improved yield (thanks to technology) + higher land utilization, but we just aren't sure if we can keep up the growth •For example, global cereals production grew at 2.0% CAGR for the last 10 years (1.6% from yield improvement, 0.4% from land increase) •So far, we haven't seen the yield improvement to slow down, but can we sustain this? are we near the limit (e.g., water supply issue), or do we have enough room for continued growth? Key issues that need to resolved Income inequality among countries AND within each country Roadblocks for continued food production increase (esp. cereals, but also livestock) •Renewable water resources (agriculture represents ~70% of water usage) •Constraints for land expansion (chemical, physical, endemic diseases, lack of infrastructure) Insufficient local/domestic food production in countries with significant undernourished population •Heavy reliance on imports •Lack of infrastructure and ineffective government policies/strategies I won't go into further detail in this report about what needs to be done (too difficult to solve given limited time), but I would like to revisit this problem in the future... Source: FAO; WorldBank; US Census; UNDESA; McKinsey 1 2 3 (2) Food supply
  16. 16. Agenda •(1) Wars and conflicts •(2) Food supply •(3) Liberty •(4) Happiness •Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices •Appendix: World Population
  17. 17. Summary: (3) Liberty •NOTE: I'm making a gross generalization that that "democratic" government is "better" in this report... this is a much debated point for which I don't really have a strong point of view (for example, I don't have a good answer to the question "isn't benevolent dictatorship better than democracy?") –For now, I will go on with this definition, but I will have to revisit the question in the future •In general, the world became much more democratic over the course of last 40 years... –Roughly ~65% of the world population lives under "democratic government" today •Clear improvement from ~40% in 1970 – many of the previously autocratic countries shifted to democracy since 1970 while there are only small number of examples countries who went into an opposite direction (or it only lasted for short period of time E.g., failed coup) •China, representing ~20% of world population, is not a democratic country - but it seems socially stable, at least so far1 •And this is likely to continue... –Long term trend has been for any countries to shift toward democracy for the last 200 years (though some countries did go back and forth over 10-50 year time cycle) – again, China is an exception –I do not have any reasons to believe that the trend would reverse in any foreseeable future (3) Liberty 1. Questionable whether China can continue to be that way for the next 50-100 years, and also unclear if the right answer is to shift to democracy or not... I didn't dig deeper into this one, as it would require a lot more in-depth research & thinking
  18. 18. Roughly ~65% of the world population lives under democratic government today (vs. ~40% in 1970) excluding China 27 26 25 24 21 20 13 23 19 13 5 7 9 8 5 7 5 8 8 5 14 15 42 39 46 47 51 5 5 8 39 40 100 60 20 80 0 3 2 1970 1980 1990 2000 1 Autocratic Somewhat democratic Neutral China Somewhat autocratic % of world population, based on the level of democracy/autocracy of the country ** China called out because it is big & an outlier 2010 Democratic 1 1960 3 Source: Polity IV dataset Aside from China (in which the quality of life is arguably not low when compared to other developing nations), there is limited amount of people under autocracy China would fall under "somewhat autocratic" bucket if classified ~85% of world population excl. China (3) Liberty Includes countries like North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Eritrea
  19. 19. Examples of countries who made the switch since 1970 From autocratic to democratic Greece (1974 – 1975) Portugal (1974 – 1976) Spain (1976 – 1978) Mexico (1976 – 20001) Peru (1979 – 1980) Bolivia (1982) Argentina (1983) Brazil (1985) Poland (1985) Taiwan (1987 – 1992) Hungary (1987 – 1990) East Germany (1989) Panama (1989) Albania (1990) Romania (1989 – 1990) Paraguay (1989 – 1991) Mongolia (1990 – 1992) Bulgaria (1990) Czechoslovakia (1990) Lesotho (1993) Indonesia (1999) Senegal (2000) From democratic to autocratic Gambia (1994) Fiji (2006) Venezuela (2009) 1. Series of events that slowly moved Mexico toward democratic government Source: Polity IV dataset More examples of shift to democracy observed... high concentration around 1989-1991 related to the fall of Berlin Wall/ collapse of USSR [untested]? (3) Liberty
  20. 20. Long term trend has been to go toward democracy for the last 200 years – though countries like France went back and forth 1820 1815 1810 1800 1805 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 China France Japan Russia/USSR United Kingdom United States Prussia/Germany More democratic WWII (1939- 1945) Russia: Russian Revolution (1917) Japan: Meiji Restoration (1868) France: End of Napoleon's reign (1814), July Revolution (1830), February Revolution (1848), Coup of 1851 Russia: USSR dissolved (1991) China: Cultural Revolution (1966), Mao's death (1976) Source: Polity IV dataset (Examples with select countries for the last 200 years) China: Xinhai Revolution (1911) (3) Liberty
  21. 21. Back-up: Approach and dataset used for the assessment of the level of democracy/autocracy Several government/ non-government organizations have published different indices and assessments of "the state of freedom" in the world Among the choices, I selected Polity IV Project which was publicly available, seemed to apply a sound approach, and allowed for long term analytics •You can access the original dataset at < http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm > Description of Polity IV methodology For each country in each year, Polity IV assigns 21 point scale (-10 to 10) for the spectrum of "democratic" and "autocratic"... the scoring is based on following 5 criteria •Competitiveness of Executive Recruitment •Openness of Executive Recruitment •Constraint on Chief Executive •Competitiveness of Political Participations •Regulation of participation (3) Liberty
  22. 22. Agenda •(1) Wars and conflicts •(2) Food supply •(3) Liberty •(4) Happiness •Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices •Appendix: World Population
  23. 23. Summary: (4) Happiness •Happiness is clearly a subjective matter, and is difficult to study – but there has been number of surveys with time series (e.g., Gallup World Poll, US General Social Survey) and number of researches and reports- notably United Nations published its first "World Happiness Report" in 2012 •Despite economic and social improvement, percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans has been virtually flat for the past 40 years –There is somewhat of a correlation between income level and percentage of happy people (i.e., you have slightly higher chance of being happy if you are richer) – but there is no aggregate improvement for the overall population even if the economy improves as a whole –Majority of people (>80%) with income level above $50K is at least somewhat happy (i.e., "it's okay"), but only ~30-40% find themselves "very happy"; this percentage only goes up to ~50% even when income level goes up to $150K+ •Cross-country comparison of self-reported happiness does not seems to show any obvious patterns – it is difficult to establish causality (most of published reports don't agree on key drivers) – but it is most certainly NOT solely driven by income •In short: above certain point (e.g., minimum level of income, peace, sufficient food supply, etc), it is up to an individual to be happy or unhappy – let's make the best of it! (4) Happiness
  24. 24. [US] Percentage of self-perceived 'happy' Americans have been virtually flat for the past 40 years 33 29 32 32 32 33 34 33 34 31 33 33 35 36 36 33 34 29 36 32 33 35 36 34 36 35 37 38 89 88 88 86 86 87 92 91 92 91 90 89 90 89 90 88 88 88 88 90 90 89 92 88 89 88 88 87 1974 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 60 1972 1976 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20 0 100 2010 80 2012 40 % 83 30 Very happy or Pretty happy Very happy Question: Taken all together, how would you say things are these days - would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy? Source: US General Social Survey (1972-2012, cumulative n=52,346) Apparently, any improvements for the past 40 years had no effect on the total percentage of "happy" people (4) Happiness
  25. 25. [US] It seems that majority of people (>80%) with household income above $50K are at least somewhat happy (i.e., "okay") 0 50 100 100 80 60 40 20 150 200 10 30 50 70 90 0 % who responded "very happy" OR "pretty happy" Inflation adjusted household income ($K per year) Source: US General Social Survey (1972-2012, cumulative n=52,346) Question: Taken all together, how would you say things are these days - would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy? Each bubble represents a set of samples surveyed –size of the bubble represent the sample size Seems to correlate positively with income level Virtually flat above certain threshold (~$50K) (4) Happiness
  26. 26. [US] Percentage of "very happy" go up with income level (NOTE: even the highest group is only at ~50% implying that no matter how rich you get, only about half of them see perceive themselves as "very happy") 60 50 0 80 100 10 30 0 40 20 50 100 150 200 70 90 % who responded "very happy" Inflation adjusted household income ($K per year) Question: Taken all together, how would you say things are these days - would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy? Source: US General Social Survey (1972-2012, cumulative n=52,346) Each bubble represents a set of samples surveyed –size of the bubble represent the sample size Positive correlation (4) Happiness
  27. 27. Cross-country comparison of self-reported happiness does not seems to show any obvious patterns (certainly not income) -100 -50 0 50 100 Brazil Germany France United-States Macedonia Russian-Federation Bulgaria Cameroon China Ukraine United-Kingdom Hong-Kong Pakistan Vietnam Morocco Turkey Czech-Republic Italy Serbia Ireland Poland Tunisia Portugal Iraq Romania Palestine Saudi-Arabia Philippines Finland Azerbaijan Peru Switzerland Iceland Argentina Ecuador Spain Japan Singapore Georgia Austria Sweden Armenia Kenya India Bosnia-and-Herzegovina South-Korea Canada Australia Mozambique Afghanistan Lebanon Colombia Malaysia Belgium Neither Unhappy Happy Question: As far as you are concerned, do you personally feel happy, unhappy or neither happy nor un-happy about your life? Source: WIN-Gallup International Association (December 2012, n=55,817) "Happiest" "Unhappiest" (4) Happiness
  28. 28. Agenda •(1) Wars and conflicts •(2) Food supply •(3) Liberty •(4) Happiness •Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices •Appendix: World Population
  29. 29. Average life expectancy 1993 1985 1989 1979 1991 1983 1987 1981 2006 2008 1977 1973 2004 1975 2002 40 60 1962 2011 1996 1998 20 0 50 70 30 1966 1968 1972 1974 1976 1978 1982 1986 1988 1994 1984 1992 80 1964 10 90 1961 2010 1963 2000 1965 1990 1967 1980 1969 1970 1971 1960 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Average life expectancy (female) Source: World Bank Rwanda civil war Each line represents a country or a region Cambodian genocide Appendix
  30. 30. Crude death rate 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 Crude death rate (death as % of population each year) 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Each line represents a country or a region Rwanda civil war Cambodian genocide Source: World Bank Appendix
  31. 31. Infant mortality rate 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 Infant mortality rate (% of infant/child who dies in less than 5 years from birth) 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Each line represents a country or a region Source: World Bank Rwanda civil war Appendix
  32. 32. Agenda •(1) Wars and conflicts •(2) Food supply •(3) Liberty •(4) Happiness •Appendix: Historical (1960-2011) analysis of select indices •Appendix: World Population
  33. 33. World Population is rapidly growing 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 8,000 10,000 -1750 -1500 -1250 -1000 250 4,000 -2000 2,000 6,000 0 -750 -500 -250 0 500 750 ~256 ~7,123 ~27 ~9,235 ~762 World population (Million people) Year (AD) Forecast Historical Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA Appendix
  34. 34. Growth trajectory of world population has been driven by major social events - it truly accelerated after WWII 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 World Population (M) Year +1.7% Source: Web search; US Census; UNDESA 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 700 800 500 600 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 +0.2% +0.1% World population (M) Year 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1950 1900 1850 1800 1750 World Population (M) Year +0.6% ~500 - 1750 (+0.1-0.2% p.a.) ~1750 - 1950 (+0.6% p.a.) ~1950 - today (+1.7% p.a.) ~ Second Industrial Revolution (chemicals, electricity, oils, steels) ~First Industrial Revolution (textiles) and Agricultural Revolution ~End of ~Mongolian World War II Conquests ~Black Death Appendix
  35. 35. Disclaimer This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.

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