Transport And Aging In Black America

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Presented 27 Oct 2008

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Transport And Aging In Black America

  1. 1. Aging in Black America Cultural Practices, Challenges, and Opportunities TRB Impacts of Changing Demographics on the Transportation System Conference Beverly G. Ward, Ph.D. 27 October 2008
  2. 2. Presentation Overview • Introduction • Selected Socioeconomic and Demographic Characteristics • Implications • Strategies and Recommendations
  3. 3. Introduction • Zolli, U.S. future “browner, more feminine…” • Black population in the U.S. projected to be (raw numbers follow) – 2010, 12.9 percent; – 2020, 13 percent; and, – 2030, 13.1 percent • Younger than the U.S. population by more than five years – median age of 30.2 years versus 35.3 years • Geographic concentrations, overall health status, and household incomes may unique • Social practices may be leveraged to mitigate adverse conditions – Propensity to use transit, – Household composition, and – Social networks
  4. 4. Population Projections 2010 through 2050 Total % Blacks % Year (in thousands) Change (in thousands) Change 2010 308,936 9,5 40,454 12.9 2020 335,805 8.7 45,365 12.1 2030 363,584 8.3 50,442 11.2 2040 391,946 7.8 55,876 10.8 2050 419,854 7.1 61,361 9.8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, quot;U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin,quot; <http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/> Levy (1995, p. 461, cited in Page 2006), “Not all drivers are legally licensed and not everyone who is licensed actually drives.”
  5. 5. Geography (cont’d) • More than two-thirds of the Black population lived in 17 states, – Nearly half in the South Atlantic Census Division (Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia. – 2006: top 10 states were California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. – 2000 Census: more densely concentrated by county in the Coastal and Lowland South • Of the 96 counties where Blacks comprise 50 percent or more few metropolitan areas
  6. 6. Life Expectancy at Birth Total White Black Year Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 2004 77.8 75.2 80.4 78.3 75.7 80.8 73.1 69.5 76.3 2010 78.5 75.6 81.4 79.0 76.1 81.8 74.5 70.9 77.8 2015 79.2 76.2 82.2 80.9 78.0 83.8 75.5 71.9 78.9 U.S. Census Bureau 2008
  7. 7. 2000 Census Population Pyramids BLACK POPULATION 85 and over 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 Male 45 to 49 Female 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 U.S. Census Bureau 2000
  8. 8. Selected Socioeconomic, and Demographic Characteristics 2005 Total African Characteristic U.S. Americans Total population 299,398,485 37,051,483 Age % 35 to 44 years 14.7% 14.8% % 45 to 54 years 14.5% 13.6% % 55 to 64 years 10.6% 8.5% % 65 to 74 years 6.3% 4.8% % 75 to 84 years 6.1% 3.6% Source: 2006 American Community Survey
  9. 9. Selected Socioeconomic, and Demographic Characteristics (cont’d) Characteristic (2000) U.S. % U.S. Black % Black Educational attainment population > 25 yrs 182,211,639 100.0 1,575,555 100.0 Less than high school 35,715,625 19.6 5,507,694 27.7 High school graduate or more 102,033,409 56.0 11,519,132 58.0 Bachelor's degree or more 44,462,605 24.4 2,831,269 14.3 U.S. Census Bureau 2000
  10. 10. Selected Socioeconomic, and Demographic Characteristics (cont’d) Characteristic (2000) U.S. % U.S. Black % Black Total Population 281,421,906 100.0 34,658,190 100.0 In HHs 273,643,273 97.2 32,939,206 95.0 In Family HHs 231,374,718 82.2 28,238,234 81.5 Female HH 19,943,930 7.1 4,549,529 13.1 Spouse 54,493,232 19.4 3,678,207 10.6 In Nonfamily HHs 42,268,555 15.0 4,700,972 13.6 Female HH 18,136,651 6.4 2,075,909 6.0 Living alone 15,540,969 5.5 1,805,760 5.2 Occupied housing units 105,480,101 100.0 11,977,309 100.0 Renter occupied 35,663,588 28.7 6,428,023 53.7 No telephone available 11,977,309 2.5 643,382 5.7 No vehicle available 10,861,067 10.3 2,848,615 23.8 U.S. Census Bureau 2000
  11. 11. Additional Characteristics that Will Influence Travel Behavior % of persons with disabilities • Household composition • Educational attainment • Vehicle availability •
  12. 12. Health Related Characteristics that Influence Mobility Obesity • Alzheimer’s disease • Arthritis • Cancer • Diabetes • Heart disease and stroke • Hypertension • Osteoporosis, and • Sensory impairments •
  13. 13. Additional Considerations • Disasters and emergencies • Ethnicity, gender, and geography • Household composition • Retirement security – Earnings less than majority community – Recent Brookings study on income gap suggests that younger generation not earning as expected
  14. 14. Implications for Aging African Americans and U.S. Society • Median age – Gender – Income Rapid growth • Land use practices • Affordable housing and “aging in place” • Driving reduction or cessation • – Personal safety
  15. 15. Implications of Socioeconomic Characteristics for the Future • Projected growth • Median age • Homeownership suggests desire to age-in- place • Vehicle ownership v. persons with disabilities, age, and population growth • More mobility options, e.g., transit and paratransit
  16. 16. Confusing Array of Programs Medicaid Children Development Program & Families Disabilities Family United Methodist Temporary Clayton School Assistance Assistance for District Church Needy Families Substance Abuse Mental Health Medicare & Health Rural Transit Medicaid Svcs HHS Care Operators Health Resources Office of the Family & Services Secretary Ride Inc Assistant Head Secretary Soc. Services Child Start Care Planning Block Grant Bureau Evaluation ABC’s Transit Education Aging Community Services Centers for Independent Living State Governors & Disability Rehab and Cabinet Secretaries Rehabilitation Research Services Administration Employment ? Federal Education Agencies ? ? Office of Special & Education Programs Grant Shopping $ Local Government Office of Disability Employment Policy Labor Recreation Employment Medicaid Training Agency Transportation Elderly Urbanized Office of the Blue Top Taxi & Grant Program Secretary Disability Program Independence Easter Seals National Highway Federal Transit Traffic Safety Early Learning Administration Rural Grant Administration Center Program Metro Access DART Departmental Job Access Office of Assistant Secretary Reverse Commute Civil Rights for Transportation Program Policy
  17. 17. General Strategies • Transit operations – Propensity for transit use – Stack’s, Call to Home • Remigration • Challenge and opportunity • Roadway design and investments – Increased investments in bicycle and pedestrian facilities • Other land use, infrastructure, and policy considerations – Residential segregation – Pedestrian amenities
  18. 18. Strategies from AARP’s Livable Communities: An Evaluation Guide • Universal Design • Mobility Management 1-800-MOVE – Human service and public transport coordination – Volunteer drivers – Jitneys – Flexcars – Volunteer programs – And so on… – • Driving • Walking • Fare-free transit
  19. 19. Summary • Existing population demographics • Socioeconomic characteristics suggest impacts may be more adverse for this subgroup of the population • Strategies for the U.S. to consider

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