Hodson putting ug99 on the mapv2


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2011 BGRI Technical Workshop
Dave Hodson, FAO
Putting Ug99 on the map: An update on current and future monitoring

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Hodson putting ug99 on the mapv2

  1. 1. Putting Ug99 on the map: An update on current and future monitoring D.P. Hodson, K. Nazari, R.F. Park, J. Hansen, P. Lassen, J. Arista, T. Fetch, M. Hovmøller, Y Jin, Z.A. Pretorius and K. Sonder
  2. 2. Tu Taji rk kis m t Ky e n a n rg ista hy n Az zst e a Af rba n gh ija an n is t Al an ge Ar ria m e Tu nia ni si Ka S a za yr k ia Source: H-J, Braun, CIMMYT Uz h s be tan ki M sta or n oc co Ira Tu n r G key eo Pa rgia ki st an In di De Ch a in ve a De lopi EU ve ng lo pe Cou USA d n Co trie un s % Daily tri e Calories W s or ld from Wheat 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% grown crop Context: Wheat is Important! • 200+ Million ha • World’s most widely2 • 600+ Million tons / yr
  3. 3. Ug99 – A call to action●1998: Anomalous results froma nursery in Uganda● 1999:Confirmation of loss ofimportant Sr genes (Sr31, Sr38+++) “Ug99” [TTKSK]● 2005: “Sounding the Alarm onGlobal Stem Rust”. Formation ofthe Borlaug Global Rust Initiative● ?’s – Susceptibility? Where next? How soon?.... ● Clear need for effective monitoring & surveillance
  4. 4. 2005: What did we know?
  5. 5. 2005: What did we know? • Very little! • Sr31 virulent stem rust at 10-15 research stations in East Africa
  6. 6. Ug99 Tracking: History• 2005: CIMMYT – First use of GIS: Ug99 – Part of successful fundraising – RustMapper – Google Earth Application Singh et al. 2006• 2009: DRRW – FAO – Rust SPORE web portal• 2011: CIMMYT
  7. 7. International Rust Monitoring: Stem Rust Model Country Reports RustSPORE Web portal To Country RustMapper Full GIS Spatial Database Winds Secondary Data•Relies on national Climate, crops etc surveillance•Standard survey protocols Field survey•Added value + Trap Nurseries /•Global Overview Samples plots
  8. 8. Continued Expansion of Surveillance Network  Rapidly increasing flow of field data  Improved knowledge on annual incidence & severity  Multi-year data: Now starting to detect potential changes 2009 2010 2005c. 10 stationsreporting Ug99
  9. 9. THE SPREAD OF WHEAT STEM RUST UG99 LINEAGE 2007 2009 2006 2003 2001 1998/9 Movements Possible Spread ? ? 2009 FAO, Aug 2010
  10. 10. Stem Rust Surveys 2010
  11. 11. Stem Rust Surveys 2010
  12. 12. Stem Rust Surveys 2010 Eritrea: 2009 Eritrea: 2010 Clear change (Environment, timing, cultivars, pathogen?) 2010 first detection of Ug99 Sr24 variants NARI, Eritrea (A. Wolday) + AAFC, Winnipeg, Canada (T. Fetch) Wolday et al in prep
  13. 13. Stem Rust Surveys 2010 Clear change (Environment, timing, cultivars, pathogen?) 2010 first detection of Ug99 variants (including Sr24 variants) DRSS, Zimbabwe (F. Mukoyi, B. Mutari), SeedCo (T. Soko) + University ofthe Free State, South Africa (Z. Pretorius, L. Herselman, B. Visser) Mukoyi et al. Plant Disease 2011 Zimbabwe: 2009 Zimbabwe: 2010
  14. 14. Pathogen Monitoring: Ug99 Lineage Variants detected & tracked Expansion in range (& number of variants) – 7 variants – virulence Sr31+Sr24 increasingly detected Progress: Global summary, increasing national capacity Constraints: Year-round analysis, sample viability Addition of Global Rust Reference Centre, Denmark – expands Data sources: AAFC, Canada; Uni Free State, South international pathotyping Africa; USDA-ARS Cereals Disease Lab, USA network
  15. 15. Ug99 Sr24 Variants (PTKST, TTKST) • An important Sr gene • Ug99 Sr24 variants being widely detected • Now predominant pathotypes in several countries • Movement out of Africa inevitable
  16. 16. Emerging Concerns Jan-Mar 2011 1. South Asia: • Jan-Mar 2011: Consistent air- flows from Yemen + Eritrea • Stem rust (Ug99?) at source in Yemen, Feb 2011 • High severity of stem rust Eritrea, Oct. 2010 • Highly susceptible hosts in South Asia (PBW343: 6M ha;2. Australia: Inqualab-91: 4M ha)• Oct-Nov 2010: Consistent air-flows from South Africa• Confirmed Ug99 (race PTKST:Sr31+Sr24 vir.) at source• Abnormal rainfall in Australia• Susceptible hosts in Australia Oct-Nov 2010
  17. 17. Data Management: Wheat Rust ToolboxNB: Generic - Applicable to all rusts Outputs: • Survey Mapping On-line Data Entry • Pathotypes, +... Quality control/publish User Data Export /Management Exchange Crop Problem Dbase External Applications (survey, pathotypes, [Trap nursery, Molecular] ) e.g., RustMapper
  18. 18. Delivering Information: Rust SPORE• Dedicated web portal: Rust SPORE• http://www.fao.org/agriculture/crops/rust/stem/en/ – Updates – Tracking – Country Surveys – Pathotypes• 3 UN languages (English, Arabic, Russian)• Centralized Dbase (Aarhus), embedded applications (Aarhus + CIMMYT)• Target: Scientists, Decision-makers, Public Awareness
  19. 19. Surveillance: Future Innovations• Smart Phone field data collection (e.g., Epicollect model)• SMS farmer/extension networks – Rapid disease detection – Farmer control / mitigation advice• Remote Sensing Aanensen et al., 2009. PlosOne – Damage assessment• Molecular Diagnostics – Mid-term: Rapid, in-season pathotype group (Ug99 lineage) detection – Long-term: pathotype detection?• Disease prediction models USDA-FAS. Commodity Intelligence Report, June 2010
  20. 20. Challenges• Surveys – Political instability, insecurity – Resources (human + financial) – Information flows• Sampling – Restrictions on sample movement – dead or alive [Dead DNA samples Yemen-USA, 7 months!] – Sample viability – Pathotyping capacity (International + national)• Strengthened linkages to breeding, seed + control systems• Accidental human-borne transfer – Need for sustained monitoring in “low-risk” areas• Other rusts!
  21. 21. Stripe Rust Severity:2010 Surveys• The most damaging wheat rust on the global scale• 2 New highly aggressive strains + rapid global spread• Breakdown of a key resistance gene (Yr27) in CWANA – Mega cultivars withYr27 are currently planted on more than 15 million hectares (North Africa to South Asia)• 2010: Major outbreaks: Syria, Ethiopia, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan (up to 40% losses)
  22. 22. Conclusion• Increased global awareness on vulnerability of wheat crop (rusts in general)• Monitoring system in place (Ug99) – current status + monitoring pathogen populations• Information systems / tools in place and being developed• Functional international networks emerging, increased national capacity for surveillance and monitoring• Current systems need to be sustained and expanded to address current and future rust threats
  23. 23. Acknowledgements• All contributing national partners• PBI, University of Sydney• ICARDA• CIMMYT• AAFC, Canada• CDL, Minnesota, USA• University of the Free State, South Africa• Aarhus University, Denmark• BGRI / Cornell University• Donors: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, DFID, USAID, IFAD