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• Mobile was always much
bigger than tech, but always separate• Smartphones mean theTechnology and Mobile worlds merge• Internet and Media are being dragged along• Tablets accelerate the change• This is changing everythingFundamental change7
Fundamental change in scalePC industry•
350m PCs sold in 2012• 1.6bn units in use• Replaced every 4-5 years• SharedMobile industry• 1.7bn phones sold in 2012• 3.2bn mobile users• Replaced every 2 years• One per person8
Fundamental change in usePC internet•
Shared, or used at work• Semi-portable at best• Web and web searchMobile internet• Personal• Taken everywhere• Web, web search, apps,social, location, serviceintegration, prediction,APIs,image recognition, NFC...9
• Well over 200m tablets
will be sold in 2013• Driven by size and price - 7” screens, $300 and (far below)• A ﬂood of cheap generic Chinese Androids - perhaps 125munits in China alone this year, with prices under $150• Not clear these compete directly with Apple, Samsung &GoogleTablets in 201315
0255075100Jan 2009 Dec 2009 Dec
2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012US Google search volume (indexed)kindle kindle ﬁre nookWeakening interest in ereadersSource: Google16
• Apple and Google’s Android
have won• Unlikely that other platforms will be relevant (WindowsPhone, Blackberry, other newer efforts)• But share of value and use between Apple and Android is ﬂuid• Google’s control of Android is partial - Amazon Kindle,Chinese Android, Samsung intentions unclear• Facebook and Amazon trying to extract value23Platform wars