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Democratic Presidential Candidate
Senator Barack Obama’s Health
Policy – An Opportunity for Change
    Blackford Middleton, MD, MPH, MSc, FACP, FACMI, FHIMSS
       Chairman, Center for Information Technology Leadership
    Corporate Director, Clinical Informatics Research & Development
                      Partners Healthcare System
                        Harvard Medical School
Overview
•  Introduction
•  The Problems with US Health Care
   •  Three perspectives: Provider, Purchaser, Consumer
•  The Opportunity with HIT
•  The Obama HealthCare Plan
•  Conclusion
The Provider’s Dilemma
•  Unexplained variation, disparities in access and
   utilization, medical error, patient safety, and quality
   issues vex US Healthcare
   –  18% of medical errors are estimated to be due to inadequate
      availability of patient information.
   –  Patient data unavailable in 81% of cases in one clinic, with an
      average of 4 missing items per case.
   –  Medical error the 8th leading cause of death
   –  1 in 4 prescriptions taken by a patient are not known to the
      treating physician
   –  1 in 5 lab and x-ray tests ordered because originals can not be
      found
   –  40% of outpatient prescriptions unnecessary
   –  Patients receive only 54.9% of recommended care
Unwarranted Variation in Care
60% Variation In Medicare Resource
          Use Intensity For Equivalent
                   Populations




SOURCE: Wennberg et. al. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2/18/03
Little Impact Of Spending On
Quality
Paper-based Medicine




•    Prone to error
•    Lots of information but no data
•    Limited decision support, or measurement
•    Does not integrate with eHealthcare…
•    Will not transform healthcare
Why?
•  “Instead of teaching doctors to be intelligent map
   readers, we have tried to teach every one to be
   a cartographer.”

•  “We practice healthcare as if we never wrote
   anything down. It is a spectacle of fragmented
   intention.”
               - L. Weed, M.D.
quot;By computerizing health
records, we can avoid
dangerous medical mistakes,
reduce costs, and improve
care.quot;
      President George W. Bush
      State of the Union Address
           January 20, 2004
How Does HIT Save Money?
 •  EHR Effects
    –  Completeness, correctness, decision support, formulary, brand to
       generic, duplicate/redundant meds and tests, charge display
    –  Workflow support, messaging (pt/provider), referral, A/R, team
 •  CPOE Effects
    –  Reduction in hospitalization/LOS due to ADEs, clinical decision
       support
 •  HIEI Effects
    –  Reduction in unnecessary and redundant tests and procedures
    –  Labor cost savings
 •  Telehealth Effects
    –  Reduction in patient transport, utilization of hospitals, and
       physician office visits
 •  PHR Effects
    –    Administrative time savings
    –    Reduction in hospitalizations and physician visit utilization
    –    Improved medication safety
    –    Reduction in redundant laboratory tests                      www.citl.org
CITL HIT Value Assessments
 •    Net US could save $150B with HIT adoption, or
      approximately 7.5% or US Healthcare Expenditure
      –  The Value of Ambulatory Computerized Order Entry
         (ACPOE)
           •    $44B US nationally; $29K per provider, per year
      –    The Value of HealthCare Information Exchange and
           Interoperability (HIEI)
           •    $78B/yr
      –    The Value of IT-enabled Chronic Diabetes Management
           (ITDM)
           •    $8.3B Disease Registries; Advanced EHR $17B
      –    The Value of Physician-Physician Tele-healthcare
           •    >$20B*
      –    The Value of Personal Health Records
           •    Approx. $20B

                                                             www.citl.org
VA’s Success with Healthcare
Information Technology




    Data Source: Thomson TG, Brailer DJ. The Decade of Health Information Technology: Delivering Consumer-centric
    and Information-rich Health Care. Washington, DC: US Department of Health and Human Services; 2004.
Rates of Positive Survey Responses on
 the Effect of Adoption of EMRs, 2008
4% of physicians use fully functional electronic health records
13% use some form of basic electronic records




                                    DesRoches CM et al. N Engl J Med 2008;359:50-60
Barriers to HIT Adoption




   Source: The Commonwealth Fund National Survey of Physicians and Quality of Care.
National HIT Cost Savings to Providers
and Other Healthcare Stakeholders
Net, 89% of the benefit of HIT goes to others, and
HIT produces a significant public good – need for a Third Hand




                                      Middleton B
                                      Health Aff 2005;24(5):1269-72
Bones…
         Captain –

         I’m sick and tired of
            it and I’m not
            going to take it
            anymore!!

          Dr. “Bones” McCoy
             (apologies to Albert Finney –
                           Network News)
The Purchaser’s Dilemma
•    US healthcare is $1.7T, 16% GDP
     –    5% in 1963; Industrialized societies average less
          than 10%
     –    Costs rising 7-9%/yr, expected to double in 10yr
     –    25% of premium is for administrative overhead
          (limited value)
•    Public expenditure on healthcare now 43%
     of total (up 10% in past decade)
•    GM healthcare costs now $1500/automobile,
     most expensive component
•    Where will additional value be found in,
     or costs taken out of, the system?
http://ucatlas.ucsc.edu/spend.php
Determinants of Health and Their
Contribution to Premature Death

                            •  Purchasers are
                               paying into a
                               disease system
                               rather than a
                               wellness system

                            •  4% of health care
                               dollar is spent on
                               prevention and
                               public health


                          Schroeder S. N Engl J Med 2007;357:1221-1228
Health Care Costs Concentrated
in Sick Few
Distribution of Health Expenditures for the U.S.
                                                                                            Expenditure
Population, By Magnitude of Expenditure, 1997
                                                                                             Threshold
                 1%                                                                        (1997 Dollars)
                 5%
                10%

                                                              27%                          $27,914


                50%
                                                              55%                           $7,995
                                                              69%                           $4,115


                                                              97%                              $351
                                                                                                      www.cmwf.org


         Source: A.C. Monheit, “Persistence in Health Expenditures in the Short Run: Prevalence and
         Consequences,” Medical Care 41, supplement 7 (2003): III53–III64.
Cost Sharing Reduces Both Appropriate
and Inappropriate Hospital Admissions

      Percent reduction in number of hospital
      admissions per 1000 person-years




  *Based on Appropriateness Evaluation Protocol (AEP) instrument developed by
  Boston University researchers in consultation with Massachusetts physicians
                                                                                                            www.cmwf.org

       Source: A.L. Siu et al., “Inappropriate Use of Hospitals in a Randomized Trial of Health Insurance
       Plans,” New England Journal of Medicine 315, no. 20 (1986): 1259–1266.
Americans Spend More Out-of-Pocket
   on Health Care Expenses, 2004
Total health care spending per capita



                                                                                           United States




                              France                                Canada
                                                              a
                                                 Germany                      Australiab
                         Netherlands                          OECD Median
                                                                      a
                                                              Japan
                                       New Zealand




                                          Out-of-pocket spending per capita
      a2003
      b2003   Total Health Care Spending, 2002 OOP Spending


                       Source: The Commonwealth Fund, calculated from OECD Health Data 2006.
The Consumer’s Dilemma
•     Average American consumers $6240/yr of healthcare,
      or $12,200 for the ave. family
     –    Health premiums rising 4x faster than salary over past 6 yrs
     –    50% of personal bankruptcy due to healthcare costs
     –    42% of the public have experienced medical error themselves
          or in their family (24% with serious consequences)
•     45M Americans lack Healthcare insurance
     –    80M lack at some time during each year
•     A fractured and ‘unwired’ healthcare system
     –    Medicare beneficiaries see 1.3 – 13.8 unique providers
          annually, On average 6.4 different providers/yr
     –    90% of healthcare transactions in the US every year are
          conducted via mail, fax, or phone
•     Increasing exposure to tiered pharmacy plans,
      consumer directed care, define contribution plans…
      without transparency
     –    Absent reliable quality data
     –    No value-based choices
Majority of Americans Say Health Care System
Needs Fundamental Change or Complete Rebuilding

                                      Only minor             Fundamental                   Rebuild
                                    changes needed          changes needed                completely
 Percent reporting:

                                            16                      50                       32
 Total

 Annual income
    <$35,000                                11                      51                       38
    $35,000–$49,999                         13                      50                       36
    $50,000–$74,999                         16                      51                       31
    $75,000 or more                         19                      52                       28

 Insurance status
    Insured all year                        18                      52                       29
    Uninsured during year                   10                      44                       45

 U.S. region
    Northeast                               13                      51                       35
    North Central                           16                      50                       32
    South                                   15                      51                       33
    West                                    21                      48                       29

               Source: Commonwealth Fund Survey of Public Views of the U.S. Health Care
               System, 2008.
Nine of 10 Americans Support
  Well-Coordinated Care


Percent
                                            96                                                     94
                                                                        93
               92




          Source: Commonwealth Fund Survey of Public Views of the U.S. Health Care System, 2006.
Dilbert Wisdom…
Health Policy Priorities for Congress,
According to Health Care Opinion Leaders
               “How important do you think the following health care issues are
                      for Congress to address in the next five years?”
         Top 10 Issues: Percent responding “absolutely essential” or “very important”




     Note: Based on a list of 17 issues.
     Source: The Commonwealth Fund Health Care Opinion Leaders Survey, Jan. 2007.
Obama’s Health Plan:
Foundations
•  All Americans should have access to quality,
   affordable health care
  –  Moral and economic issue
•  Modernize healthcare system so that it improves
   health, lowers spending, and makes medical
   practice more effective and rewarding
  –  Lowest cost, highest value
•  We need a public health system that works with
   the medical system to maintain wellness,
   prevent disease and improve population health
Barak Obama’s Health Plan
1.  Universal Health Care
   - Health Care Exchange with private and public payers
2.  Health Care Reform
   - Affordability, cost control, improved quality, efficiency
   - Help patients receive better care: Investment in coordination of care,
       disease management, and quality measurement and reporting
       initiatives
   - Help providers delivery better care: expanding research, including
       comparative effectiveness research, to understand what works
   - Reform our reimbursement systems, to align financial reward with quality
       and not quantity of services, with good health outcomes, keeping
       Americans healthy, and reducing disparities.
3.  Promote prevention and strengthen public health
   - Promote healthy lifestyles at home, school, and work places
   - Improve public health infrastructure for community health and wellness,
       and disaster preparedness
  Health IT is the lynchpin to success for each part of his health
  platform
Cost of the Obama Health Plan

 •  Net best estimate is $50-65B per year when fully
    phased in
   –  Investments in information technology
      •  $10B investment for 5 years
 •  Funded by three means:
   –  Restoring the top two personal income tax brackets
      and rates on dividends
   –  Restoring capital gains tax to Clinton era levels
   –  Retaining the estate tax with a $7 million exemption
      rather than repealing it
Benefit of the Obama Health
Plan for Healthcare System
•  Investments in information technology
   –  HIT Savings $78B (RAND) - $150B (net CITL)
•  Reduced insurance industry overhead
   –  Commonwealth Fund est. $32-46B/yr savings
   –  Reduce uncompensated care (1% of private premiums)
•  Improved disease management, care coordination, clinical
   effectiveness research, and payment for excellence
   –  Enable comparative effectiveness, value-based purchasing
   –  RAND est. disease management could lead to an additional $81
      billion of savings
•  Net potential savings $120-200 Billion
Impact of Obama Health
Plan for Americans
•  Insurance costs decline by $2500 for a typical
   family
  –  Reduce private insurance premiums by 5%
•  10,000,000 more people with employer-based
   coverage
•  98-99% of all Americans will have healthcare
   coverage
•  More rewarding practice environment for
   providers and patients… less administrative
   hassle and expense
“I conclude that though
the individual physician
is not perfectible, the
system of care is, and that   Where are we?
the computer will play a
major part in the
perfection of future care
systems.”
      Clem McDonald, MD
      NEJM 1976




Thank you!
Blackford Middleton, MD
bmiddleton1@partners.org

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Supporting Barack Obama for President

  • 1. Democratic Presidential Candidate Senator Barack Obama’s Health Policy – An Opportunity for Change Blackford Middleton, MD, MPH, MSc, FACP, FACMI, FHIMSS Chairman, Center for Information Technology Leadership Corporate Director, Clinical Informatics Research & Development Partners Healthcare System Harvard Medical School
  • 2. Overview •  Introduction •  The Problems with US Health Care •  Three perspectives: Provider, Purchaser, Consumer •  The Opportunity with HIT •  The Obama HealthCare Plan •  Conclusion
  • 3. The Provider’s Dilemma •  Unexplained variation, disparities in access and utilization, medical error, patient safety, and quality issues vex US Healthcare –  18% of medical errors are estimated to be due to inadequate availability of patient information. –  Patient data unavailable in 81% of cases in one clinic, with an average of 4 missing items per case. –  Medical error the 8th leading cause of death –  1 in 4 prescriptions taken by a patient are not known to the treating physician –  1 in 5 lab and x-ray tests ordered because originals can not be found –  40% of outpatient prescriptions unnecessary –  Patients receive only 54.9% of recommended care
  • 5. 60% Variation In Medicare Resource Use Intensity For Equivalent Populations SOURCE: Wennberg et. al. Annals Of Internal Medicine 2/18/03
  • 6. Little Impact Of Spending On Quality
  • 7. Paper-based Medicine •  Prone to error •  Lots of information but no data •  Limited decision support, or measurement •  Does not integrate with eHealthcare… •  Will not transform healthcare
  • 8. Why? •  “Instead of teaching doctors to be intelligent map readers, we have tried to teach every one to be a cartographer.” •  “We practice healthcare as if we never wrote anything down. It is a spectacle of fragmented intention.” - L. Weed, M.D.
  • 9. quot;By computerizing health records, we can avoid dangerous medical mistakes, reduce costs, and improve care.quot; President George W. Bush State of the Union Address January 20, 2004
  • 10. How Does HIT Save Money? •  EHR Effects –  Completeness, correctness, decision support, formulary, brand to generic, duplicate/redundant meds and tests, charge display –  Workflow support, messaging (pt/provider), referral, A/R, team •  CPOE Effects –  Reduction in hospitalization/LOS due to ADEs, clinical decision support •  HIEI Effects –  Reduction in unnecessary and redundant tests and procedures –  Labor cost savings •  Telehealth Effects –  Reduction in patient transport, utilization of hospitals, and physician office visits •  PHR Effects –  Administrative time savings –  Reduction in hospitalizations and physician visit utilization –  Improved medication safety –  Reduction in redundant laboratory tests www.citl.org
  • 11. CITL HIT Value Assessments •  Net US could save $150B with HIT adoption, or approximately 7.5% or US Healthcare Expenditure –  The Value of Ambulatory Computerized Order Entry (ACPOE) •  $44B US nationally; $29K per provider, per year –  The Value of HealthCare Information Exchange and Interoperability (HIEI) •  $78B/yr –  The Value of IT-enabled Chronic Diabetes Management (ITDM) •  $8.3B Disease Registries; Advanced EHR $17B –  The Value of Physician-Physician Tele-healthcare •  >$20B* –  The Value of Personal Health Records •  Approx. $20B www.citl.org
  • 12. VA’s Success with Healthcare Information Technology Data Source: Thomson TG, Brailer DJ. The Decade of Health Information Technology: Delivering Consumer-centric and Information-rich Health Care. Washington, DC: US Department of Health and Human Services; 2004.
  • 13. Rates of Positive Survey Responses on the Effect of Adoption of EMRs, 2008 4% of physicians use fully functional electronic health records 13% use some form of basic electronic records DesRoches CM et al. N Engl J Med 2008;359:50-60
  • 14. Barriers to HIT Adoption Source: The Commonwealth Fund National Survey of Physicians and Quality of Care.
  • 15. National HIT Cost Savings to Providers and Other Healthcare Stakeholders Net, 89% of the benefit of HIT goes to others, and HIT produces a significant public good – need for a Third Hand Middleton B Health Aff 2005;24(5):1269-72
  • 16. Bones… Captain – I’m sick and tired of it and I’m not going to take it anymore!! Dr. “Bones” McCoy (apologies to Albert Finney – Network News)
  • 17. The Purchaser’s Dilemma •  US healthcare is $1.7T, 16% GDP –  5% in 1963; Industrialized societies average less than 10% –  Costs rising 7-9%/yr, expected to double in 10yr –  25% of premium is for administrative overhead (limited value) •  Public expenditure on healthcare now 43% of total (up 10% in past decade) •  GM healthcare costs now $1500/automobile, most expensive component •  Where will additional value be found in, or costs taken out of, the system?
  • 19. Determinants of Health and Their Contribution to Premature Death •  Purchasers are paying into a disease system rather than a wellness system •  4% of health care dollar is spent on prevention and public health Schroeder S. N Engl J Med 2007;357:1221-1228
  • 20. Health Care Costs Concentrated in Sick Few Distribution of Health Expenditures for the U.S. Expenditure Population, By Magnitude of Expenditure, 1997 Threshold 1% (1997 Dollars) 5% 10% 27% $27,914 50% 55% $7,995 69% $4,115 97% $351 www.cmwf.org Source: A.C. Monheit, “Persistence in Health Expenditures in the Short Run: Prevalence and Consequences,” Medical Care 41, supplement 7 (2003): III53–III64.
  • 21. Cost Sharing Reduces Both Appropriate and Inappropriate Hospital Admissions Percent reduction in number of hospital admissions per 1000 person-years *Based on Appropriateness Evaluation Protocol (AEP) instrument developed by Boston University researchers in consultation with Massachusetts physicians www.cmwf.org Source: A.L. Siu et al., “Inappropriate Use of Hospitals in a Randomized Trial of Health Insurance Plans,” New England Journal of Medicine 315, no. 20 (1986): 1259–1266.
  • 22. Americans Spend More Out-of-Pocket on Health Care Expenses, 2004 Total health care spending per capita United States France Canada a Germany Australiab Netherlands OECD Median a Japan New Zealand Out-of-pocket spending per capita a2003 b2003 Total Health Care Spending, 2002 OOP Spending Source: The Commonwealth Fund, calculated from OECD Health Data 2006.
  • 23. The Consumer’s Dilemma •  Average American consumers $6240/yr of healthcare, or $12,200 for the ave. family –  Health premiums rising 4x faster than salary over past 6 yrs –  50% of personal bankruptcy due to healthcare costs –  42% of the public have experienced medical error themselves or in their family (24% with serious consequences) •  45M Americans lack Healthcare insurance –  80M lack at some time during each year •  A fractured and ‘unwired’ healthcare system –  Medicare beneficiaries see 1.3 – 13.8 unique providers annually, On average 6.4 different providers/yr –  90% of healthcare transactions in the US every year are conducted via mail, fax, or phone •  Increasing exposure to tiered pharmacy plans, consumer directed care, define contribution plans… without transparency –  Absent reliable quality data –  No value-based choices
  • 24. Majority of Americans Say Health Care System Needs Fundamental Change or Complete Rebuilding Only minor Fundamental Rebuild changes needed changes needed completely Percent reporting: 16 50 32 Total Annual income <$35,000 11 51 38 $35,000–$49,999 13 50 36 $50,000–$74,999 16 51 31 $75,000 or more 19 52 28 Insurance status Insured all year 18 52 29 Uninsured during year 10 44 45 U.S. region Northeast 13 51 35 North Central 16 50 32 South 15 51 33 West 21 48 29 Source: Commonwealth Fund Survey of Public Views of the U.S. Health Care System, 2008.
  • 25. Nine of 10 Americans Support Well-Coordinated Care Percent 96 94 93 92 Source: Commonwealth Fund Survey of Public Views of the U.S. Health Care System, 2006.
  • 27. Health Policy Priorities for Congress, According to Health Care Opinion Leaders “How important do you think the following health care issues are for Congress to address in the next five years?” Top 10 Issues: Percent responding “absolutely essential” or “very important” Note: Based on a list of 17 issues. Source: The Commonwealth Fund Health Care Opinion Leaders Survey, Jan. 2007.
  • 28. Obama’s Health Plan: Foundations •  All Americans should have access to quality, affordable health care –  Moral and economic issue •  Modernize healthcare system so that it improves health, lowers spending, and makes medical practice more effective and rewarding –  Lowest cost, highest value •  We need a public health system that works with the medical system to maintain wellness, prevent disease and improve population health
  • 29. Barak Obama’s Health Plan 1.  Universal Health Care - Health Care Exchange with private and public payers 2.  Health Care Reform - Affordability, cost control, improved quality, efficiency - Help patients receive better care: Investment in coordination of care, disease management, and quality measurement and reporting initiatives - Help providers delivery better care: expanding research, including comparative effectiveness research, to understand what works - Reform our reimbursement systems, to align financial reward with quality and not quantity of services, with good health outcomes, keeping Americans healthy, and reducing disparities. 3.  Promote prevention and strengthen public health - Promote healthy lifestyles at home, school, and work places - Improve public health infrastructure for community health and wellness, and disaster preparedness Health IT is the lynchpin to success for each part of his health platform
  • 30. Cost of the Obama Health Plan •  Net best estimate is $50-65B per year when fully phased in –  Investments in information technology •  $10B investment for 5 years •  Funded by three means: –  Restoring the top two personal income tax brackets and rates on dividends –  Restoring capital gains tax to Clinton era levels –  Retaining the estate tax with a $7 million exemption rather than repealing it
  • 31. Benefit of the Obama Health Plan for Healthcare System •  Investments in information technology –  HIT Savings $78B (RAND) - $150B (net CITL) •  Reduced insurance industry overhead –  Commonwealth Fund est. $32-46B/yr savings –  Reduce uncompensated care (1% of private premiums) •  Improved disease management, care coordination, clinical effectiveness research, and payment for excellence –  Enable comparative effectiveness, value-based purchasing –  RAND est. disease management could lead to an additional $81 billion of savings •  Net potential savings $120-200 Billion
  • 32. Impact of Obama Health Plan for Americans •  Insurance costs decline by $2500 for a typical family –  Reduce private insurance premiums by 5% •  10,000,000 more people with employer-based coverage •  98-99% of all Americans will have healthcare coverage •  More rewarding practice environment for providers and patients… less administrative hassle and expense
  • 33. “I conclude that though the individual physician is not perfectible, the system of care is, and that Where are we? the computer will play a major part in the perfection of future care systems.” Clem McDonald, MD NEJM 1976 Thank you! Blackford Middleton, MD bmiddleton1@partners.org