Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

階層ベイズモデルで割安mobile PCを探す

5,069 views

Published on

データサイエンスLT

Published in: Technology
  • Dating for everyone is here: ❤❤❤ http://bit.ly/2u6xbL5 ❤❤❤
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • Follow the link, new dating source: ❶❶❶ http://bit.ly/2u6xbL5 ❶❶❶
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (Unlimited) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { http://bit.ly/2m77EgH } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m77EgH } ......................................................................................................................... ACCESS WEBSITE for All Ebooks ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { http://bit.ly/2m77EgH } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m77EgH } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m77EgH } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (Unlimited) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... ACCESS WEBSITE for All Ebooks ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

階層ベイズモデルで割安mobile PCを探す

  1. 1. 階層ベイズモデルで 割安mobile PCを探す @berobero11
  2. 2. 自己紹介 • 岩波データサイエンス刊行委員メンバー • 『StanとRでベイズ統計モデリング』 2 http://amzn.to/2c6XgL7
  3. 3. 目的 • 割安なmobile PCを買いたい • 割高なmobile PCは買いたくない ※ mobile PC: • ディスプレイが12~14型 • 重さ1kg前後 • 最新モデルに限定しました 3
  4. 4. データの取得方法 • メーカーを決める  本気で買うつもりで 公式サイトと価格comを比較  オプションポチポチしながら…  絶望の人力スクレイピング 4
  5. 5. データの種類 • 8社・10モデル • 44商品 – おすすめモデル中心 • 18個のPCの説明変数 – CPU・メモリ・SSD・PCIe・ディスプレイのサイズ/解 像度/光沢非光沢・重さ・バッテリ持続時間・キー ボードバックライト・LANポート・SIMポート・USB3.0 の数・USB3.1の数・各種出力など 5
  6. 6. データの様子 6 company _name model_name price CPU memorySSD PCIe … HDMI SD Lenovo ThinkPad X1 Carbon 156298 Core i5- 6200U 8 256 1 … 1 1 Lenovo ThinkPad X1 Carbon 167152 Core i7- 6500U 8 256 1 … 1 1 Lenovo ThinkPad X1 Carbon 139655 Core i5- 6200U 4 128 0 … 1 1 … … … … … … … … … … Apple MacBook Air 126958 Core i5- 5250U 8 256 1 … 1 1 Apple MacBook Air 141264 Core i7- 5650U 8 128 1 … 1 1 Apple MacBook Air 167184 Core i7- 5650U 8 256 1 … 1 1
  7. 7. モデル名 vs. 価格 7 [万円]
  8. 8. CPU vs. 価格 8 ※ CPU情報はスコアに変換しました https://www.cpubenchmark.net/ [万円]
  9. 9. 重さ vs. 価格 9 [万円] [kg]
  10. 10. 統計モデル 10 𝑛 = 1, … , 44𝑌𝑛 = 𝛼 + 𝛽1 𝑋 𝑛,1 + ⋯ + 𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑘 𝑛 + 𝜀 𝑛 𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑘 ~ Normal 0, 𝜎𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑘 = 1, … , 8 𝜀 𝑛 ~ Normal 0, 𝜎 𝑌 𝑛 = 1, … , 44 この辺が階層モデル 会社ごとに単純に集計すると過学習の恐れ 詳しくは書籍の8章で!
  11. 11. パラメータの推定方法 • StanとRで計算しました • Stan – 統計モデルを書くと自動的にパラメータを推定してくれる – アウトプットは事後分布からのMCMCサンプル – ADVI (自動変分ベイズ)も使える! 11 次ページ以降 結果
  12. 12. 回帰係数 𝛽 12 断言できるプラス要因はこの3つだけ
  13. 13. ブランド 13 大差なし
  14. 14. 実際の価格 vs. 真の価値 14 目立つ割安・割高はなし. 値段相応の価値.
  15. 15. 割引%offの Best3・Worst3 • Best3 • Worst3 15 model_name price 真の価値 %off CPU memory SSD MacBook Air 10.31万円 12.20万円 15.5 i5-5250U 8 128 Let's note SZ5 15.68万円 17.40万円 9.9 i5-6300U 4 128 MacBook Air 10.99万円 12.09万円 9.1 i5-5250U 4 256 model_name price 真の価値 %off CPU memory SSD Let's note SZ5 21.94万円 18.76万円 -16.9 i5-6300U 8 256 X1 Carbon 13.97万円 12.33万円 -13.2 i5-6200U 4 128 MacBook Air 16.72万円 15.10万円 -10.7 i7-5650U 8 256

×