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Coaching startups under conditions of extreme uncertainties

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Workshop slides for HTGF Family Day 2016

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Coaching startups under conditions of extreme uncertainties

  1. 1. COACHING START-UPS UNDER CONDITIONS OF EXTREME UNCERTAINTIES High-Tech Gründerfonds | Family Day 2016 Bonn, Germany | May 31st, 2016 Bernhard Doll | doll@orangehills.de Note: Optimised for presentation with tablets
  2. 2. Start-ups can be game changers in many industries...
  3. 3. …and sometimes a great way to burn your money.
  4. 4. Many start-ups fail…
  5. 5. …because they build things nobody wants.
  6. 6. 6 A typical challenge: From technology ...
  7. 7. ...to func�onal prototypes
  8. 8. 8 Affordable 3D prin�ng hardware Easy-to-use so�ware (even for non- engineers) (Costly) consumables to make your CFO happy ...to products and services for people
  9. 9. ...to innova�ve business models.
  10. 10. Technology Customers Economics Strategy Is the innova�on desired by customers and users? Is the innova�on technologically feasible ? Is the innova�on suitable to reach your strategic targets? Is the innova�on economically viable ? Innovation
  11. 11. Innovation is about dealing with uncertainties in areas where you are not expert in.
  12. 12. Building start-ups is still in many ways an unstructured and chaotic process.
  13. 13. How do you deal with uncertainties?
  14. 14. Ignoring the level of uncertainties by pretending the start-up process can be planned 1 2 �me level of uncertain�es Embracing uncertainties by structuring the learning process in the most efficient way
  15. 15. We want start-ups teams to work with the precision of surgeons, architects or scien�sts…
  16. 16. Business designStrategic Management SCRUM Kanban Design Thinking (Social) Prototyping Business Modelling Behavioral Economics Lean Startup Team Research How do we do business in the future? What is our bet on the future? How can we excite customers with simple means? How do we work together as a team? …with
  17. 17. What is our bet on the future? How can we excite customers with simple means? Business Design is an integrative process model to design new business under conditions of extreme uncertainties. visual worksheets 7 weeks per itera�on
  18. 18. Let’s talk about a startup that didn’t fail…
  19. 19. Germany’s largest distributor of residen�al mortgages
  20. 20. How do we do business in the future? © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Inspired by www.businessmodelgeneration.com. BUSINESS MODEL Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Target groups Who are our sales targets and who will be using our offerings? Resources Partners Primary What is our primary customer and user segment that unlocks the most value in our business and is easily accessible? Customers Users InvestmentsCostsPricing & revenue streamsPattern How much money do we need to spend before we earn?What are our revenue streams and how much do our customers pay (per unit)?How, when and how often do we charge our customers? What are the most important costs of creating and delivering the offerings? Brand & messages Offerings Channels Relationships Channels Processes Profit formula What (internal) key resources do we need to create and deliver the offerings? Who are our (external) key partners to create and deliver the offerings? What bundle of products and services do we offer to our customers and users? How do we want our brand to be perceived and what is our story to sell the offerings? Through which channels do our customers and users want to be reached? What kinds of relationships do our customers and users expect? Through which channels do our partners want to be reached? What (internal) key processes do we need to create and deliver the offerings? Delivery R&D Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#bml_en Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh What job(s) are our customers and users trying to get done? Job(s) to get done Pains Gains What do we do better than our competitors to create the value, which is hard to copy? Unfair advantage What value do we create for customers and users to get their job(s) done? Core value DNA Incremental redesign Disruptive innovation Use the “Hypotheses & Experiments Canvas” to challenge your business model by revealing critical assumptions and simple ways to test them. Use the ”Target Groups Canvas” to segment customers and users based on behavioural attributes.
  21. 21. How do we do business in the future? The first business model of interhyp.de...
  22. 22. “Interhyp is Germany‘s largest distributor of residential mortgages. As a broker, Interhyp does not act as a lender but instead selects the best mortgages for its customers among offers from over 250 commercial banks, saving banks and insurance companies. We focus on competent, personal and objective consulting by our approximately 316 mortgage consultants. Private customers receive advice from our homepage www.interhyp.de and through 23 regional offices in key German cities.” Source: Interhyp Annual Report 2011 …relied on digital sales channels and a call-center to interact with customers.
  23. 23. What was their “big bet” on the future in their sales approach? 1.  Discuss this question with your right neighbor 2.  Describe your key hypothesis and how you would test it to manage your uncertainties What is our bet on the future?
  24. 24. H: “They believed…” E: “I would have tested H by…” 1.  Discuss this question with your right neighbor 2.  Describe your key hypothesis and how you would test it to manage your uncertainties What is our bet on the future?
  25. 25. What is our bet on the future? © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS Analogs What things are new to us but we can learn from others because they have proven that it just works? What things are new to us, new to the market, and we can’t learn from anyone? + Customers + Users + Brand & messages + Channels + Relationships + Offerings + Resources + Processes + Partners + Profit formula + Business DNA Look at every single element of your business model to find analogs and antilogs: Test focus Importance Uncertainties A+ A- Make sure your analogs are reliable sources to learn from others. In many cases, analogies eventually turn out to be somehow different to your business when you look under the hood. What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further before you turn them into testable hypotheses? Antilogs Exploration Validation Experiments How can we test the identified hypotheses with the least effort? Hypotheses Which antilogs are both very important and uncertain? Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...” What hypotheses grow out of relevant antilogs in our test focus? “We believe...” How to test hypotheses? 1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses. 2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way. 3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards. Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour. It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling. Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to investigate important analogs even further to see what we can learn from others. Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to run your experiments in short cycles. Use the “Lean Offerings Canvas” and start designing your first products and services to hit the market and excite customers. Will the big banks accept us as business partners? Do people trust an IT pla�orm for mortgage business? Can we prevent customers from taking our rates and defec�ng to other banks? …that X% of our visitors on landing page submit an applica�on MVP with lean web frontend and closed ALPHA community …applica�ons in our database and customers connected with banks ...that X out of 50 close the deal within MVP test run of 2 weeks ...that X big banks join the pla�orm and transfer their interest rates daily LOI nego�a�ons with banks (S, M, L) ...wide range of financial products in database X out of 10 big banks in Germany sign an LOI within next 4 months ...
  26. 26. “Interhyp is Germany‘s largest distributor of residential mortgages. As a broker, Interhyp does not act as a lender but instead selects the best mortgages for its customers among offers from over 250 commercial banks, saving banks and insurance companies. We focus on competent, personal and objective consulting by our approximately 316 mortgage consultants. Private customers receive advice from our homepage www.interhyp.de and through 23 regional offices in key German cities.” Source: Interhyp Annual Report 2011 Interhyp.de today with 100 physical offices across Germany.
  27. 27. What is our bet on the future? What’s your “big bet” on the future in your real startup today? Use the next five minutes to reflect on your current business(es) as founder, investor, coach etc.
  28. 28. core tools © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. LEAN OFFERINGS / MVP Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Functional requirements Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#mvp_en Should have What is the extended set of user stories that increases the value of the product and/or service to the next level? What is a lean offering / MVP (= Minimum Viable Product)? A minimal set of user stories that fulfills at least the following requirements: + Are your hypotheses covered? + Can you charge your customers? + Is your DNA embedded? + Does your mother like it? To define user stories, look through the lenses of customers and users. Could have What are optional user stories that can help us better serve our customers and users in the future? F Hypotheses Keep in mind that each user story should be independent of any other user story. Competitive benchmark Non-functional requirements What user stories has our No. 1 competitor (”DNA fit”) considered in its offering to customers and users? Fc What non-functional requirements should be embedded in our product and/or service? NF ...what non-functional requirements do they fulfill? NFc Ease of implementation DNAfit Must have What is the minimal set of user stories customers and users expect to be implemented, in order to deliver the core value of the product and/or service? Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh What value do we create for customers and users to get their job(s) done? Core value What do we do better than our competitors to create the value, which is hard to copy? Unfair advantage DNA What job(s) are our customers and users trying to get done? Job(s) to get done Pains Gains Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to implement your lean offerings in short cycles. © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS Analogs What things are new to us but we can learn from others because they have proven that it just works? What things are new to us, new to the market, and we can’t learn from anyone? + Customers + Users + Brand & messages + Channels + Relationships + Offerings + Resources + Processes + Partners + Profit formula + Business DNA Look at every single element of your business model to find analogs and antilogs: Test focus Importance Uncertainties A+ A- Make sure your analogs are reliable sources to learn from others. In many cases, analogies eventually turn out to be somehow different to your business when you look under the hood. What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further before you turn them into testable hypotheses? Antilogs Exploration Validation Experiments How can we test the identified hypotheses with the least effort? Hypotheses Which antilogs are both very important and uncertain? Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...” What hypotheses grow out of relevant antilogs in our test focus? “We believe...” How to test hypotheses? 1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses. 2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way. 3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards. Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour. It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling. Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to investigate important analogs even further to see what we can learn from others. Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to run your experiments in short cycles. Use the “Lean Offerings Canvas” and start designing your first products and services to hit the market and excite customers. How can we excite customers with simple means? What is our bet on the future? ...and many other tools: +  Business Ecosystem +  Customer Journey +  KPIs +  Target Groups +  Compe��ve Landscape +  Financial Sanity Check +  Business Model Inspirator +  UI Design 7 weeks per itera�on
  29. 29. +  Agile process design to deal with uncertainties +  Easy way to manage the “unmanageable” +  Holistic thinking in business models, not just products +  Strong emphasis on doing, not planning +  Systematic learning based on evidence, not gut feeling +  Prototyping to support learning and team development +  Lean product design to generate cash quickly +  Rigid task management with short cycles to get teams into flow
  30. 30. core tools © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. LEAN OFFERINGS / MVP Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Functional requirements Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#mvp_en Should have What is the extended set of user stories that increases the value of the product and/or service to the next level? What is a lean offering / MVP (= Minimum Viable Product)? A minimal set of user stories that fulfills at least the following requirements: + Are your hypotheses covered? + Can you charge your customers? + Is your DNA embedded? + Does your mother like it? To define user stories, look through the lenses of customers and users. Could have What are optional user stories that can help us better serve our customers and users in the future? F Hypotheses Keep in mind that each user story should be independent of any other user story. Competitive benchmark Non-functional requirements What user stories has our No. 1 competitor (”DNA fit”) considered in its offering to customers and users? Fc What non-functional requirements should be embedded in our product and/or service? NF ...what non-functional requirements do they fulfill? NFc Ease of implementation DNAfit Must have What is the minimal set of user stories customers and users expect to be implemented, in order to deliver the core value of the product and/or service? Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh What value do we create for customers and users to get their job(s) done? Core value What do we do better than our competitors to create the value, which is hard to copy? Unfair advantage DNA What job(s) are our customers and users trying to get done? Job(s) to get done Pains Gains Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to implement your lean offerings in short cycles. © 2016 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. Design your business in your browser | http://www.rapidmodeler.deBusiness Design GAME | Playing seriously with innovation Download | http://blog.orangehills.de/#hyp_en HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS Analogs What things are new to us but we can learn from others because they have proven that it just works? What things are new to us, new to the market, and we can’t learn from anyone? + Customers + Users + Brand & messages + Channels + Relationships + Offerings + Resources + Processes + Partners + Profit formula + Business DNA Look at every single element of your business model to find analogs and antilogs: Test focus Importance Uncertainties A+ A- Make sure your analogs are reliable sources to learn from others. In many cases, analogies eventually turn out to be somehow different to your business when you look under the hood. What experiments are required to explore antilogs even further before you turn them into testable hypotheses? Antilogs Exploration Validation Experiments How can we test the identified hypotheses with the least effort? Hypotheses Which antilogs are both very important and uncertain? Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch Lean offerings post-launch Experiment pre-launch “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...” What hypotheses grow out of relevant antilogs in our test focus? “We believe...” How to test hypotheses? 1. Break down a high-level hypothesis into a set of low-level hypotheses. 2. Run experiments, if it is sufficient to reflect the status quo or possible to simulate affected parts of the future in a realistic way. 3. In any other case, build a MVP first and test the hypotheses afterwards. Never let people predict the future – not even their own behaviour. It‘s a waste of time! ...and keep in mind that most hypotheses can’t be proven “right”. It’s about getting a professional gut feeling. Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “We do...” “We are convinced, if...” incl. + threshold + timeframe “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” “...which will result in...”“We believe...” Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to investigate important analogs even further to see what we can learn from others. Use the “Action Plan Canvas” to define and assign tasks to run your experiments in short cycles. Use the “Lean Offerings Canvas” and start designing your first products and services to hit the market and excite customers. How can we excite customers with simple means? What is our bet on the future? ...and many other tools: +  Business Ecosystem +  Customer Journey +  KPIs +  Target Groups +  Compe��ve Landscape +  Financial Sanity Check +  Business Model Inspirator +  UI Design 7 weeks per itera�on Download for free: h�p://bit.ly/1TOdoG3 Thank you.
  31. 31. Dr. Bernhard Doll Orange Hills GmbH Sendlinger Str. 25 80331 München, Germany E. doll@orangehills.de T. +49-89-4520545-0 F. +49-89-4520545-69 Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh

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