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Template: Hypotheses & Experiments

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The “Validation Plan” can help you reveal critical and testable
(= falsifiable) hypotheses your business model is based on, which are both uncertain and important for the success of the innovation endeavour. Translate only the most important und uncertain antilogs (= test focus) into testable hypotheses. This, however, is not an easy task, especially at the beginning of innovation projects. We usually start with high-level hypotheses that are hard to test. Over time, we are eventually able to nail them down to very specific but still relevant statements. The following structure may help you phrase your hypotheses: <future><threshold>
“We believe that payment by credit cards will be accepted by more than 50% of our customers.” Every hypothesis needs an experiment in order to be tested. An experiment defines a sequence of actions needed to collect data and measure the threshold: <action><measurement><timeframe>
“We integrate credit card payments into our check-out process for X customers and count usage within 3 weeks.”
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Template: Hypotheses & Experiments

  1. 1. © 2017 Orange HillsTM GmbH. All rights reserved. HYPOTHESES & EXPERIMENTS Analogs What things are new to us but we can learn from others because they have proven that it just works? What things are new to us, new to the market, and we can’t learn from anyone? Look at every single element of your business model to find analogs and antilogs Test focus Importance Uncertainties Make sure your analogs are reliable sources to learn from others. In many cases, analogies eventually turn out to be somehow different to your business when you look under the hood. Antilogs Experiments “We test ....and are convinced, if...” What questions / hypotheses grow out of relevant antilogs in our test focus? Orange HillsTM GmbH | www.orangehills.de | Follow us on Twitter: @orangehillsgmbh “We believe...” “We don’t know...” “We explore this by...” Prototype or lean offerings required? Hypothesis Question Use the “Lean Offerings” canvas and start designing your first products and services to test hypotheses that can’t be tested upfront. Use the “Action Plan” canvas to define and assign tasks to run your experiments in short cycles. Use the “Action Plan” canvas to investigate important analogs even further to see what we can learn from others. Team DateIteration 1 2 3 Licensed to Orange Hills GmbH for use in commercial projects from 01 / 01 / 2017 to 31 / 12 / 2017. What methods do we use and how do we conduct the experiments? ExplorationValidation Targetgroup(s)Brands&messagesChannelsPartnerchannelsOfferingsResourcesProcessesPartnersProfitformulaBusinessDNARelationships ExplorationValidationExplorationValidationExplorationValidationExplorationValidationExplorationValidation Questions / hypotheses Methods / procedures post launchpre launch post launchpre launch post launchpre launch post launchpre launch post launchpre launch post launchpre launch Which antilogs are both very important and uncertain? Antilog level of knowlegde ? Question Hypothesis Method Execute! Note: Translate the antilogs in the test focus into either an exploration or validation depending on your today’s level of knowlegde. Define an appropriate method to collect data in the most efficient way. high low Exploration Validation

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