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Nzmea presidents functionmay13christchurch

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Bernard Hickey delivered a presentation on the outlook for NZ exporters to the NZMEA on May 13 in Christchurch

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Nzmea presidents functionmay13christchurch

  1. 1. Why debt reduction will dominate the 2010s and what it means for Kiwi exporters<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  2. 2. It’s all about de-leveraging and less foreign borrowing<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  3. 3. Bigger than 1929<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  4. 4. Big fat ATM<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  5. 5. Lending collapse<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  6. 6. Same here too<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  7. 7. Bubble pumped up<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  8. 8. So what happens now? Deleveraginghas only just begun <br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  9. 9. Pass the parcel<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  10. 10. Bond vigilantes“I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”James Carville<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  11. 11. 7 years long25% of GDP= NZ$45 bln<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  12. 12. Saving more<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  13. 13. Weak spending<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  14. 14. Weak lending<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  15. 15. Rising interest rates<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  16. 16. What’s different this time?The Core Funding Ratio is what’s different<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  17. 17. Less hot money<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  18. 18. Signs emerge that less hot money means a more stable (and lower) New Zealand dollar<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  19. 19. NZ$ stability?<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  20. 20. NZ a suburb of Australia, which is a province of China<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  21. 21. One big boom<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  22. 22. NZ exports to China have risen 140% in two years<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  23. 23. We are the other lucky country<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  24. 24. Our Australian links, the Chinese miracle and a less volatile NZ$ are good signs<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  25. 25. We face lower growth, slower lending and a Chinese flavour to everything<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  26. 26. The caveats:A Chinese bust.A hollowing out.Aussie exodus.Failure to reform.<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />
  27. 27. Mind the Gap<br />NZMEA President's Function, May 13, Christchurch, Bernard Hickey<br />

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