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Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16 What the Credit Crunch means for New Zealand and where the silver linings are

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<ul><li>September 15 – the day the neutron bomb went off and what almost happened </li></ul><ul><li>How the global banking system imploded </li></ul><ul><li>Why the debt mountain is so large </li></ul><ul><li>Why deleveraging is so powerful </li></ul><ul><li>The New Zealand connection </li></ul><ul><li>We’re not immune, but our world won’t end </li></ul><ul><li>What might happen next </li></ul><ul><li>Insolvency, nationalisation, deleveraging </li></ul><ul><li>The silver linings to this big cloud </li></ul>Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16

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<ul><li>US Federal Reserve Chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke </li></ul>Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16

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Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16 US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson

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<ul><li>Lehman CEO Dick Fuld AIG’s Martin Sullivan </li></ul>Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16

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Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16 Rod Petricevic and Mark Bryers

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Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16

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Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16

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Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16

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<ul><li>Recession lasting well into 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Global recession driven by de-leveraging </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment rising past 8% by end 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Median NZ house price to fall 30% from end 2007 peak by end 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Prices won’t return to 2007 levels until 2018 </li></ul><ul><li>Consumption must drop NZ$1.5 bln/month </li></ul><ul><li>Non-essential retail and importers to suffer </li></ul><ul><li>The boom of the “roaring noughties” is over </li></ul>Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16

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<ul><li>Trade restrictions </li></ul><ul><li>Financial nationalism </li></ul><ul><li>Rising long term interest rates </li></ul><ul><li>Stresses in the China-US nexus </li></ul><ul><li>Eurozone political and monetary instability </li></ul><ul><li>Very weak demand for exports </li></ul><ul><li>Strong demand for infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Weaker borrowing, consuming economy </li></ul><ul><li>Stronger savings and investing economy </li></ul><ul><li>Strong focus on efficiency, cost reduction </li></ul>Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16

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<ul><li>Cheaper borrowing for homeowners </li></ul><ul><li>OCR to hit 2%, variable mortgage in low 5s </li></ul><ul><li>Lower fuel and food prices… </li></ul><ul><li>But not that much cheaper </li></ul><ul><li>Lower NZ dollar </li></ul><ul><li>Could got to 40 USc </li></ul><ul><li>Bargain hunters paradise </li></ul><ul><li>Cars, houses, farms, clothes, anything </li></ul><ul><li>Housing becomes more affordable </li></ul><ul><li>40% single income to pay median mortgage </li></ul>Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16

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<ul><li>Flexible currencies and interest rates </li></ul><ul><li>Helicopter Ben and his money men </li></ul><ul><li>Fiscal stimuli the world over </li></ul><ul><li>We won’t repeat the mistakes of Smoot Hawley and shut down global trade </li></ul><ul><li>This was the recession we needed to have </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on infrastructure investment </li></ul><ul><li>Boost productivity and real incomes </li></ul><ul><li>Political stability in the wealthy west </li></ul>Bayley's Big Picture presentation Feb 16