Berlin 6 Open Access Conference: John Houghton


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Berlin 6 Open Access Conference: John Houghton

  1. 1. Alternative publishing models: Exploring costs AND benefits John Houghton Centre for Strategic Economic Studies Victoria University, Australia [email_address] +61 409 239 109
  2. 2. Recent and current projects <ul><li>Research Communication Costs in Australia , Emerging Opportunities and Benefits (DEST) ( http:// dspace . anu . edu .au/handle/1885/44485 ) . </li></ul><ul><li>The Economic and Social Impacts of Open Access (Easi-OA) ( ). </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Implications of Alternative Scholarly Publishing Models (JISC) ( ). </li></ul><ul><li>Podcast on economics of OA (JISC) ( podcast55johnhoughton . aspx ). </li></ul><ul><li>European Knowledge Exchange (Netherlands, and perhaps Denmark and Germany). </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  3. 3. Research communication costs AND benefits <ul><li>Costs, costs, costs…! </li></ul><ul><li>The goal should be the most cost-effective system, not (necessarily) the cheapest. </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  4. 4. Implications of alternative publishing models JISC Project <ul><li>Current work includes a JISC-funded project on the Economic Implications of Alternative Scholarly Publishing Models , in collaboration with Loughborough University. </li></ul><ul><li>The aim of the project is to explore the institutional, budgetary and wider economic implications of the major emerging models for scholarly publishing ( i.e. subscription publishing, OA publishing and self-archiving) , with particular emphasis on the implications for UK universities . </li></ul><ul><li>Phase I seeks to describe the publishing models, and identify all the costs and potential benefits involved. </li></ul><ul><li>Phase II seeks to quantify as many of the costs and benefits as possible, and to compare costs and benefits. </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  5. 5. Phase I: Approach and activity model JISC Project <ul><li>There are two approaches in the literature: (i) a focus on the publishing process, and (ii) systems perspectives putting publishing in a wider context. </li></ul><ul><li>Studies that focus on publishing activities alone tend to overlook areas in which costs are shifted around the system , confuse that shifting with cost reduction and not take account of the full system costs. </li></ul><ul><li>We adopted a system perspective and our costing include s activities related to publishing and those relating to funding research, performing research , and research library and dissemination functions. </li></ul><ul><li>We developed an activity model based on IDEF0 – often used for business process re-engineering. </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  6. 6. Scholarly communication process model JISC Project http://www. businessandlaw .vu. edu .au/ houghton / SCLCProcessModel /WWW-V7/ Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  7. 7. Cost model and matrix approach JISC Project <ul><li>Scholarly communication is multi-dimensional, so we adopted a ‘matrix approach’ to costing: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Activities ( e.g. peer review), </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Actors ( e.g. universities), </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Objects ( e.g. journal articles), and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Functions ( e.g. quality control and certification). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>With the aim of being able to break down and re-assemble the scholarly communication value chain along any of these dimensions. </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  8. 8. An Impacts Framework RESEARCH Most/Many served, but not all CONSUMERS/ SOCIETY Few served INDUSTRY/ GOVERNMENT Part served, but not all SUBSCRIPTION PUBLISHING Current reach OPEN ACCESS Potentially serves all RESEARCH Access for all, research participation based on merit, not means. Potential benefits : Speeding up discovery. Reduction of duplicative research. Fewer blind alleys. New research possibilities. Better educational outcomes & enhanced research capabilities. SOCIETY Access as needed, informed consumers ( e.g. health and education). Potential benefits : Contribution t o the 'informed citizen' and 'informed consumer', with implications for better use of health and education services, better consumption choices, etc. leading to greater welfare benefits, which in turn may lead to productivity improvements. INDUSTRY/GOVT (1) Access as needed, more informed producers and policy. (2) New businesses add value to content ( e.g. Weather Derivatives). Potential benefits : Accelerate and widen opportunities for collaboration, commercialisation & adoption.   The potential for much wider access for GPs/nurses, teachers/students, and small firms in consulting, engineering, ICT, nanotechnology, biotechnology, etc. The potential for the emergence of new industries based upon the open access content. Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  9. 9. Dimensions of impact : A ccess and P ermission Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  10. 10. Phase II: Quantifying costs and benefits JISC Project <ul><li>We adopted a staged approach to Phase II that tackles it from the bottom-up (as case studies and scenarios) and the top-down (in a simple economic model). </li></ul><ul><li>We explore the costs of the process elements and system costs, to see cost differences and direct savings. </li></ul><ul><li>We present cases and scenarios exploring the cost savings resulting from the alternative publishing models throughout the system, to see the indirect cost differences and savings. </li></ul><ul><li>Then w e model the impacts of changes in accessibility and efficiency on returns to R&D . </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  11. 11. Library costs by mode and model UK Higher Education Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  12. 12. Estimated system costs per article UK Higher Education Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  13. 13. An approach to overall impacts A modified Solow-Swan model <ul><li>There is a vast literature on returns to R&D, which while varied shows that social returns to publicly funded R&D are high – typically 20% to 60% a year. </li></ul><ul><li>The standard approach assumes that all R&D generates useful knowledge (efficiency) and all knowledge is equally accessible (accessibility), which is unrealistic. </li></ul><ul><li>W e introduce ‘accessibility’ and ‘ efficiency ’ into the standard model as negative, friction variables, and look at the impact of reducing the friction by increasing access and efficiency . </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  14. 14. Impact estimation ranges JISC Project <ul><li>Example of estimation tables (UK HERD, £ millions) </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  15. 15. Estimating potential impacts Publicly funded research in the UK <ul><li>With public sector R&D spending at ₤ 8.4 billion a year and a 20% return to R&D, a 5% increase in accessibility and efficiency would be worth ₤ 172 million pa. </li></ul><ul><li>With higher education R&D spending at ₤ 6.1 billion, a 5% increase in accessibility and efficiency would be worth ₤ 124 million pa. </li></ul><ul><li>With RC UK competitive grants funding a t ₤ 1.6 billion , a 5% increase in accessibility and efficiency would be worth ₤ 33 million pa. </li></ul><ul><li>These are recurring annual gains from one year’s R&D expenditure. </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  16. 16. Comparing cost and benefits JISC Project <ul><li>It is not possible to compare toll and OA publishing directly at the national level: toll access publishing seeks to provide UK subscriber s with access to worldwide research, whereas OA publishing seeks to provide worldwide access to UK research . </li></ul><ul><li>W e approach it from both sides and try to explore the lower and upper bounds by looking at: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ceteris paribus scenarios – t he implications of simply adding OA publishing and self-archiving to current activities , all other things remaining the same; and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Net cost scenarios – t he implications of OA publishing and self-archiving as alternatives to current activities , by adding the estimated savings to estimated returns. </li></ul></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  17. 17. Transition or an alternative system? JISC Project <ul><li>There is a lag between R&D expenditure and the realisation of returns to the research, so in the transition the impact s are lagged by 10 years and the ir value discounted . Hence, over a transitional period of 20 years , we are comparing 20 years of costs with 10 years of benefits. </li></ul><ul><li>In an alternative ‘steady-state’ system , t he benefits of historical increases in returns would enter the model in year one, so it would be comparing 20 years of costs with 20 years of benefits. </li></ul><ul><li>I t i s more realistic and of more immediate concern to model the transition , but a transitional model returns significantly lower benefit/cost ratios than would a n alternative ‘steady-state’ model ( i.e. the ‘steady-state’ benefits might be 3 times greater ) . </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  18. 18. Exploring FAQs JISC Project <ul><li>Then we explore some FAQs, and we currently have three examples: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The diversion of research funding to author-pays – looking at it from both sides, asking (i) if current Wellcome Trust or RCUK spending on author-pays fees is beneficial, and (ii) what is the maximum percentage of funds that could be diverted to author fees before exhausting the benefits; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The impact of delayed OA – estimating the impact of a one year delay or ‘OA embargo’ on returns to R&D; and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The impact of speeding up the research and discovery process – estimating the impact of a one year reduction in the lag between R&D expenditure and its economic impact ( e.g. from self-archiving pre-prints). </li></ul></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  19. 19. Summary and current status JISC Project <ul><li>Working to finalize an agreed set of data, and from that to finalize the report. </li></ul><ul><li>Hoping to make the model available online, so people can explore various scenarios using different assumptions and variables. </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipating a release early in the New Year. </li></ul>Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
  20. 20. Alternative publishing models: Exploring costs AND benefits John Houghton Centre for Strategic Economic Studies Victoria University, Australia [email_address] +61 409 239 109