Technology Roadmapping ICTNorcom


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Slides from workshop on technology roadmapping conducted for ICT Norcom june 2009

Technology Roadmapping ICTNorcom

  1. 1. TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING<br />17. juni, 2009<br />
  2. 2. TEKNOLOGISK INSTITUT<br />’Se fremad, fremad! Aflur den kommende tid de veje, den vil bane for udviklingen, og stil jer så dér, hvor I aner, at Instituttets hjælp bliver fornøden. Vent ikke, at nyt land nås ad gamle, banede veje. Ad ukendte stier og snarveje vil vejen ofte gå’<br />Selvejende, almennyttig institution – grundlagt 1906<br />Aktiviteter: Forskning og udvikling, rådgivning, undervisning, prøvning, certificering, konferencer og information<br />Ca. 1200 ansatte i Danmark, Sverige og Polen<br />Idegrundlag: At virke til gavn for erhvervsliv og samfund ved udvikling og formidling af teknologiske fremskridt<br />Oprindeligt motto: ”Fra Guld til gangbar Mønt”<br />Bent Bilstrup | 72201614 |<br />
  3. 3. Agenda<br />Introduction to technology roadmapping (TRM)<br />The motivation for roadmapping and roadmaps – the ”Why?”<br />Case Story: Gatehouse and roadmapping the SDR markets and technologies<br />Exercise – produce your own roadmap – part I<br />The roadmapping process – the ”How?”<br />Exercise – produce your own roadmap – part II<br />Fast track roadmap – the ”What’s next?”<br />
  4. 4. Exercise: The map of Sweden…<br />You have 30 seconds!<br />Take a piece of paper<br />Write your name on one side and turn it over<br />Draw a map of Sweden<br />Place the two cities Stockholm and Göteborg on you map<br />Estimate the distance in kilometers between the two cities<br />Go!<br />
  5. 5. Aprox 496 km.<br />Ask yourself: How many times are you put up to make quite precise predictions and calculations on a small amount of imprecise information? Fast!<br />
  6. 6. Conclusions – just to map out wherewearegoing….<br />Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a mature process and supported by numerous tools and methods<br />TRM can give you tremendous insight AND outlook – both don’t go for both at the same time<br />Roadmapping is a continuous process – the roadmaps are the outcome or artifacts from this process<br />The roadmaps are hypothesis on the future markets, their demands, technology options and possibilities – you can use them to reduce risk and combine them with scenarios to give these hypothesis dynamics and “life”<br />Use it to identify strategies and necessary activities<br />Roadmaps are superb tools for internal and external communication<br />Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts<br />A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to move forward together as a group or organization<br />You can do it – in fact you are already doing it….<br />
  7. 7. Introduction to technology roadmapping (TRM)<br />
  8. 8. WE WILL BELIEVE WRONG MAPS. WE WILL FOLLOW WRONG MAPS – ALSO OUR MAPS OF THE FUTURE…<br />I the late century the cartographs Gerard Mercator and Abraham Ortelius made a number of maps with California – correctly – depicted as a peninsula.<br />In 1602, Sebastian Vizcaino sailed up the California coast, and Father Antonio de la Ascension wrote a journal of the voyage. Claiming that California was separated from the American continent by the “Mediterranean Sea of California.”<br />For more than 100 years California was depicted on maps as an island even long after Father Kino established its penisularity about 1705. Beginning with Delisle’s map of America in 1722, some cartographers began again to show a peninsular California, but many cartographers continued to depict it as an island.<br />Finally in 1747, Ferdinand VII of Spain issued a royal edict declaring California as part of the mainland<br />Ask yourself: How precise are your maps?<br />Kort af Francisco de Ulloa der besejlede bugten udfor Californien i 1539<br />
  9. 9. Anotherroadmap most of usknow…<br />From Wikipedia<br />
  10. 10. ”A Roadmap for the Robotic and Human Exploration of Mars”, NASA 2004<br />
  11. 11. A roadmap we may know…<br />
  12. 12.<br />
  13. 13. SDR Hype Cycle<br />SCA ver 2.2<br />Remaining technology limitations<br /><ul><li> AD/DA conversion
  14. 14. Power consumption
  15. 15. Linear amplification
  16. 16. Broadband antennas
  17. 17. SW reload time</li></ul>MM3xR<br />Various demonstrations<br />JTRS Launch<br />PUSHING TECHNOLOGY ENVELOPE<br />VISIBILITY<br />JTRS <br />Re-organisation and<br />Re-targeting<br />Coalition waveform implementation<br />SpeakEasy<br />Euro-SDR Proto ?<br />DSPs, FPGAs<br />Early 1990’s<br />2015<br />2005<br />2000<br />2010<br />Technology<br />Trigger<br />Through of<br />Dissillusionment<br />Plateau of<br />Productivity<br />Peak of Inflated<br />Expectations<br />Slope of<br />Enlightenment<br />MATURITY<br />
  18. 18.
  19. 19. SDR Emerging Technology Roadmap<br />Reference : Dr. Klaus Moessner, CCSR, University of Surrey, UK<br />Ask yourself: How many roadmaps do you use or produce dayly?<br />
  20. 20. GPS metafor<br />Retrospective<br />Prospective<br />A roadmap is a forward directed and qualified tool for supporting decision making – like a GPS for a driver<br />More than one route are found as the context and preconditions change<br />A roadmap is the best qualified estimate on a safe or quick route to your destination<br />Ask yourself: Where are you looking for direction and guidance? Is this source trustworthy?<br />
  21. 21. The beginning:[place]: Motorola[time]: Late 70’s<br />Technology Roadmapping – the process of producing roadmaps – where introduced in Motorola in the late 70’s<br />Through the 80’s the roadmapping process are integrated tightly as one of Motorola&apos;s most important control- and communication tools – both internally but just as much externally in relation to suppliers and markets/costumers<br />Motorola formulated the goals with their roadmaps:<br />Establish a cooperation tool which both development dept. and marketing could use<br />Be able to more qualified assumptions on future developments in technologies or markets<br />Be able to coordinate across a large and diverse organization and increase consistency<br />Identify ”gaps” – holes in the collective knowledge / product series / markets – more rapidly and more effectively<br />To time and synchronize efforts towards new technologies and new markets<br /> <br />Ask yourself: How well does these goals from Motorola fit your own? <br />
  22. 22. Technology Roadmaps and Roadmapping<br />Where are we now?<br />Where do we want to go?<br />How do we get there?<br />From “Nowhere” to “Now Here”<br />”A Roadmap is an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry composed from the collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest drivers of change in that field”, Brian Galvin CEO Motorola<br />A ’Roadmap’ is a qualified guess on the path for a given technology, market, business sector or strategic goal<br />A roadmap consists of selected methods such as:<br />Trend-analysis<br />Market and product analysis<br />Expert opinions, forecasts (R&D)<br />Emerging technology identification and analysis<br />Strategic development<br />“Roadmapping” is the process that produces a number of interrelated roadmaps<br />Ask yourself: Which and how many elements of the roadmapping process and roadmaps can you identify in your own organization?<br />
  23. 23. Why roadmapping?<br />
  24. 24. What can Technology Roadmaps do for you?<br />Give one – or more likely: more – well argumented hypothesis on the future markets, their demands, options and possibilities – hereby reducing risk<br />Identify the “hard” and “soft” technologies necessary to capture future benefits and possibilities<br />Identify strategies and activities from where companies and industries can get access to new sources of knowledge – eg. strategic partnerships, common R&D areas (See the recent alliance between Vestas and Boeing)<br />Roadmaps are superb tools in the internal and external communication: the invite to dialog and a roadmap is always strengthen if it is challenged<br />Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts: don’t invest in new technologies if the roadmap for a targeted market doesn’t say that adoption here is ready<br />A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to move forward after a common layout / architecture / business plan etc.<br />Ask yourself: What would you like roadmapping to provide you?<br />
  25. 25. A roadmap as a strategic lens on the world<br />Ask yourself: What “lenses” provides you with outlook or perspectives on the surrounding world? Are they aligned? Are they shared?<br />
  26. 26. Roadmapping is a learning process<br />Identifiedrisk<br />Insecurity of prediction<br />”Wild guesses” with no or poor documentation<br />Informed estimates<br />Reliable estimates<br />Identifiedrisk<br />Time<br />Increasing leaning value<br />Ask yourself: How do you identify and eliminate risks?<br />
  27. 27. 4 main topics in roadmapping<br />Ask yourself: Who or what would you use in your organization to cover each topic?<br />
  28. 28. Scoping is essential for the outcome!<br />Analytical and methodologically<br />Expert driven<br />Customer driver<br />Amount of data<br />Timespan for roadmap<br />Timespan for roadmapping process<br />Level of abstraction<br />Society<br />Policy<br />Industry<br />Corporate<br />Market<br />Product<br />Technology<br />(Resources)<br />Ask yourself: Which method would fit you the best? Which abstraction would benefit you the most?<br />
  29. 29. Case: Gatehouse<br />Technology Roadmapping of Software Defined Radio (SDR)<br />
  30. 30. About Gatehouse<br />Based on extensive experience within satellite communications GateHouse has developed an Inmarsat BGAN Waveform for SDR<br />The waveform is SCA compliant and has all the advantages from the BGAN system:<br />Global coverage<br />High data rate transfer (up to 492 kbit/s)<br />L-Band<br />For land, maritime and aeronautical use<br />Software that connects<br />GateHouse was founded in 1992 by the current CEO, Michael Bondo Andersen. During the last decade GateHouse has risen to become a well-know international player in the software development market for communication systems. Contributory to this success are the BGAN Protocol Stack, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and the numerous consultancy service contracts for the Danish Army.<br />Now GateHouse employs about 80 highly skilled M.Sc. in engineering, business developers, sales and marketing specialists. Their geniuses are deployed in the solutions we make for our customers translating their requirements into &quot;software that connects&quot;.<br />Today GateHouse operates within 5 business areas sharing the same dedication to suply mission critical solutions characterised by reliability and interoperability.<br />The business areas are:<br />Satellite Communications<br />Tracking, monitoring and control (TrMC)<br />Coastal Surveillance<br />Defence<br />Software Defined Radio (SDR)<br />
  31. 31. The purpose of Technology Roadmapping at Gatehouse<br />
  32. 32. Artefacts<br />
  33. 33. Timing is the key to success<br />F 1<br />F 2<br />T 1<br />Rekonfigurabel fysisk platform<br />Smart antennas<br />T 2<br />M 2<br />M 1<br />P1<br />Investeringer<br />Kompetence udvikling<br />Etablering af værdikæde<br />
  34. 34. Exercise – themes & abstraction<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />Task: Startup a roadmap for ”ITS – Intelligent Transportation systems”<br />Vision:The term intelligent transportation system (ITS) refers to efforts to add information and communications technology to transport infrastructure and vehicles in an effort to manage factors that typically are at odds with each other, such as vehicles, loads, and routes to improve safety and reduce vehicle wear, transportation times, and fuel consumption.The vision is that the driving forces on societal and sector levels will make a powerful pull and a numbers of enabling and driving ICT technologies will provide ITS with the necessary infrastructure<br />Process:<br />Make post-its and send to the person left to you. When a post-it returns to you put in the middle of the table. Do this for 10 minutes<br />Begin – as a group – to place the post-its on the ”brown paper” provided on the wall<br />Start the process with sorting them according to their level of abstraction and themes / sub-themes<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />ABC<br />
  35. 35. The Roadmapping Proces<br />
  36. 36. The roadmapping process seen iterative<br />The process begins with a very broad scope<br />Narrowing in short iterations<br />Early iterations are short (hours/days)<br />Later Iterations are longer (weeks) and perhaps even in parallel<br />Ask yourself: How good are you to run and facilitate processes?<br />
  37. 37. Outlined roadmap process per iteration<br />As proposed in Phaal & Müller: ”An architecturalframework for roadmapping” 2008<br />Ask yourself: Where would you think your process would be the most productive – ideation, divergence, convergence, synthesis?<br />
  38. 38. Gatehouse case revisited: activities and structure<br />Adopted from: “T-Plan: the fast start to Technology RoadmappingPlanning your route to success”<br />
  39. 39. The TRM framework 1/3<br />Ask yourself: Can you point out where to seek the 5 information types in your organization?<br />Adapted from: ”Fast-StartTechnologyRoadmapping” Phaal, Farrukh & Probert, 2008<br />
  40. 40. The TRM framework 2/3<br />Ask yourself: Which Push / Pull-effects are the strongest in your context?<br />Adapted from ”TechnologicalForecasting & Social Change” Phaal & Muller 2007<br />
  41. 41. The TRM framework 3/3<br />The Scenarios – the stories – the multiple instantiations of the roadmap<br />The important disruptive elements<br />Ask yourself: In your case - which scenario would be the most powerful or effective as a communication vehicle?<br />
  42. 42. From Gatehouse case<br />
  43. 43. Learning points for the process:<br />Appoint a facilitator among the group (the architect?)<br />Make a preliminary roadmap for the first workshop<br /><ul><li>Give the group a starting point – even though you know it’s inaccurate and with errors
  44. 44. Use 3. party roadmaps (ask Mr. Google)</li></ul>Control your abstractions<br /><ul><li>Seek a limited number of abstraction levels
  45. 45. Keep them well-balanced: don’t over-expose the bottom ones just because you can…
  46. 46. Keep it simple – very simple – in the first 2 iterations
  47. 47. Keep the abstraction levels in alignment for the first 2 iterations</li></ul>Agree on the time span for the roadmap<br /><ul><li>Keep the alignment of the time span for as long as you can</li></ul>Agree on the time span for the roadmapping process<br /><ul><li>For each iteration
  48. 48. For the whole process until first delivery (fx a report to a project review or kick-off)</li></ul>Classify and group input in themes all the time<br /><ul><li>Again: control the abstractions</li></ul>Seek and qualify with “Facts and Figures”<br /><ul><li>Even though they contradict each other
  49. 49. Name your sources</li></ul>Maintain and keep the roadmap up-to-date<br />Ask yourself: The last time you facilitated a process - how did you do that? Are there any learning points from that you need to take into consideration?<br />
  50. 50. Exercise continued – mapping & condensing<br />Point out two themes we will try to map out (preferable one business and one technology)<br />Agree on the time span of the roadmap – use the provided ”brown paper”<br />Split in two groups<br /><ul><li>Group 1: Technology
  51. 51. Group 2: Business</li></ul>Start the process by mapping out the post-its on the time line<br />Group 2: classify dynamics as ”enablers”, ”drivers” and ”barriers”<br />
  52. 52. Exercisecontinued<br />Condensate the two roadmaps to one<br />Any inconsistencies?<br />Any new dynamics?<br />Each person takes a boardmaker and are allowed 10 votes – represented by a mark or dot.<br /><ul><li>Vote on the grouped post-its or single post-it you find most important – you may by more that one vote on one post-it.</li></ul>Point out 3 areas to qualify with ”facts & figures”<br />
  53. 53. What´s next?<br /> A suggestednext step: fast trackroadmapping<br />
  54. 54.
  55. 55. Roadmapping as a platform for Open Innovation?<br />Commonactivities<br />Company specificactivities<br />
  56. 56. Fast track roadmapping<br />Sell the concept of TRM roadmapping<br /><ul><li>Get the key stakeholders identified and involved
  57. 57. Set the overall scope for the TRM process</li></ul>Initiating the TRM process – how to get started?<br /><ul><li>Set the TRM process core-team
  58. 58. Identify supporting resource-members</li></ul>Define scope of the TRM process and roadmap<br /><ul><li>Identify largest technology areas
  59. 59. Identify technology alternatives
  60. 60. Develop roadmaps</li></ul>Integrate or adobt TRM into existing processes<br /><ul><li>Align / adopt to whatever development or analysis process inhouse
  61. 61. Make TRM communication package
  62. 62. Use resource-members as ambassadors</li></ul>Maintain the TRM-process on an everyday basis<br /><ul><li>Review and validate
  63. 63. Find external review partners (costumers, suppliers, etc.)</li></ul>Preliminaryactivities<br />Developmentactivities<br />Follow-up / reviewactivities<br />
  64. 64. A-fast-track TRM process – with reference to framework<br />Ask yourself: Won’t what guy ever stop???<br />Adapted from: ”Fast-StartTechnologyRoadmapping” Phaal, Farrukh & Probert, 2008<br />
  65. 65. Thankyou…<br />Bent Bilstrup | 72201614 |<br />
  66. 66. Furtherreading<br />“An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy”, Robert Phaal, Gerrit Muller (Technological Forecasting & Social Change (2008)<br />”Establish a creativeenvironment for roadmapping of i-system methodology”, Tieju MA, Andrzej P. WIERZBICKI, Yoshiteru NAKAMORI<br />”Evolution of roadmapping at Motorola”, Richey, James M., Grinnel, Mary (Research | Technology Management, march-april 2004)<br />“Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping”, R Phaal, CJP Farrukh and DR Probert<br />“Fundamentals of Technology Roadmapping” Marie L. Garcia & Olin H. Bray<br />