2010 Overview

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General overview of 2008 results and preview of 2010 races.

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2010 Overview

  1. 1. Penultimate Draft 1
  2. 2. WHAT IS FILIBANTER? Penultimate Draft 2
  3. 3. Jim Ellis’ Political Baseball Card Hometown: Sacramento, California Rookie Season: San Diego County Republican Party, and then served as an original staff member for then- Congressman Bill Lowery (R-CA). All Star: Served as consultant to three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups. Position: Provides political analysis for clients that include corporations such as AT&T, UPS, DuPont, and Wal-Mart, as well as lobbying organizations and trade associations. Penultimate Draft 3
  4. 4. Bennet Kelley’s Political Baseball Card Hometown: Providence, Rhode Island. Rookie Season:: Senator Claiborne Pell’s re- election campaign and also worked in Capitol Hill and District Offices. All Star: Co-founded and was National Co- Chair for the Democratic National Committee’s Saxophone Club, its young professional fundraising and outreach arm during Clinton era. Position: Award winning political columnist for Huffington Post and Santa Monica Daily Press. Founder Internet Law Center. Penultimate Draft 4
  5. 5. Filibanter Provides Unique Insights on Post-Partisan Washington Penultimate Draft 5
  6. 6. Post Partisan? We tried that in my country. Penultimate Draft 6
  7. 7. OK, that was wishful thinking. Penultimate Draft 7
  8. 8. You Can Hear Them Every Thursday on Straight Talk with Melissa Hopkins Or read their Point-Counterpoint postings on Politics Magazine’s Campaign Insider Blog Penultimate Draft 8
  9. 9. In our last episode . . . >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  10. 10. Source: Wikipedia >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  11. 11. Changes from 2004 9 States + Nebraska (02) Switched from R to D from 2004 Source270toWin.com >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  12. 12. Changes from 1996 Different coalition than Clinton’s 1996 Win Source270toWin.com >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  13. 13. Senate: +8 Dems House: +21 Dems GOP Suffers Major Set Backs for 2nd Election in a row >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  14. 14. GOP Pct of Congressional Vote by Region (2008) >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  15. 15. States GOP/Dems Received 55% or Higher of Congressional Vote GOP REGION DEMS PACIFIC STATES 1 2 BIG SKY + AK 2 ROCKY MT 1 2 PLAINS 2 INDUSTRIAL MIDWEST 3 BORDER STATES 1 2 CONFEDERATE STATES 2 MID ATL (EXCL DC) 4 NEWENGLAND 4 >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  16. 16. Highest Turnout since 1968 >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  17. 17. …Ah, to be Young Again 2008 Youth (18-24) vote 12.5 million - All-time record Accounted for 2/3rds of increased turnout 66% for Obama Carried approx. 40 states 2-1 Party ID advantage for Dems Photo by Phoney Nickle >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  18. 18. African Americans Since 2004: 2% increase of overall electorate 4 million new voters 21.7% more voted than 2004 Photo: Damon Winter Key factor in NC and VA switching >> 0 >> 1 >> 2 >> 3 >> 4 >>
  19. 19. What Year is It? • Republicans hope Health Care will lead to repeat of 1994 – House: +54, Senate + 8 • High unemployment could parallel 1982 – House: +27, Senate + 1 GOP EYE EXAM Penultimate Draft 19
  20. 20. 1934? • Democrats hope for first New Deal midterm – House: +9, Senate +9 (despite high unemployment) – High Disapproval of Cong. GOP – Only 29% believe acting in good faith • Backlash against GOP Congress helped Clinton avoid midterm losses in ‘98 – House: +5, Senate – NC Penultimate Draft 20
  21. 21. For Some House Members Election Day is Friday the 13th 21 House Democrats are in District where Obama Vote Was 10% or More Below National Result AL: Bright (2nd), Griffith (5th), MS: Taylor (4th), Children (1st) Berry (1sT) OK: Boren (2nd) AR: Berry (1st), Ross (4th) TN: Davis (4th), Gordon (6th), GA: Marshall (8th) Tanner (8th) ID: Minnick (1st) TX: Edwards (17th) KY: Chandler (6th) UT: Matheson (2nd) LA: Melancon (3rd) VA: Boucher (9th) MD: Kratovil (1st) WV: Mollohan (1st), Rahall (3rd) MO: Skelton (4th) Penultimate Draft 21
  22. 22. For Some House Members Election Day is Friday the 13th 40% In 14 Districts Obama Got Less Than 40% AL: Bright (2nd), Griffith (5th), MS: Taylor (4th), Children (1st) Berry (1sT) OK: Boren (2nd) AR: Berry (1st), Ross (4th) TN: Davis (4th), Gordon (6th) ID: Minnick (1st) TX: Edwards (17th) TX: UT: Matheson (2nd) LA: Melancon (3rd) MO: Skelton (4th) MO: Penultimate Draft 22
  23. 23. Friday the 13th Part 2 Joe Cao (LA-2) is the only (LA- Republican House Member in District where McCain vote was 10% or more below the national result Obama carried the district with 74% Penultimate Draft 23
  24. 24. Cardinal Rules of American Politics #1 - All politics is local Penultimate Draft 24
  25. 25. Cardinal Rules of American Politics #1 - All politics is local #2 – Never forget the first Rule Penultimate Draft 25
  26. 26. Look at Races by Region West: Pacific Coast and Rocky Mountain States East: New England and Mid Atlantic States (PA in Midwest Group) Penultimate Draft 26 South: Confederate States and Border States Midwest: Rust Belt, Great Lakes Region and Plains States
  27. 27. The Northeast Penultimate Draft 27
  28. 28. 70.00% Cong. Vote % 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% D 30.00% R 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2008 Avg. 00-08 3 11 Senate House 2008 EVs Dem Dem Obama GOP GOP McCain 17 64 98 Penultimate Draft 28
  29. 29. Rare Openings in Lion’s Den Years in Senate for NE Senators 36 Leahy (VT) Legend – 24 Mikulksi (MD) RED=OPEN SEAT YELLOW= YELLOW= IN PLAY Dodd (CT) 28 BLACK=SAFE Kennedy (MA) 48 Biden (DE) 38 Gregg (NH) 18 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 . © Yaay Penultimate Draft 29
  30. 30. The Midwest Penultimate Draft 30
  31. 31. Cong. Vote % 60 54 51 48 50 43 40 D 30 R 20 10 0 2008 Avg. 00-08 16 EV 6 Senate House D D 49 R D R 63 R 17 118 Penultimate Draft 31
  32. 32. The Main Event • Open Senate Seats in IL and OH • 2 Dem and 2 GOP House seats rated Tossups • Districts for lightening rods were listed as merely leaning GOP: – Jean Schmidt and – Michele Bachmann Penultimate Draft 32
  33. 33. The South Penultimate Draft 33
  34. 34. Cong. Vote 52 51.1 51 49.94 50 49.1 49 48 47 46.4 46 45 44 2008 Avg. 00-08 55 5 EVs Senate House Dem Dem 75 Dem Rep Rep 84 Rep 129 21 Penultimate Draft 34
  35. 35. Penultimate Draft 35
  36. 36. The West Penultimate Draft 36
  37. 37. 60.00% 52.45% 50.56% 50.00% 46.11% Cong 43.48% Vote 40.00% D 30.00% R 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2008 AVG 00-08 28 37 House 10 Senate EVs DEM DEM DEM GOP GOP GOP 63 16 96 Penultimate Draft 37
  38. 38. Battle over boxers • Harry Reid (former Boxer) in trouble in NV • Carly Fiorina to challenge Barbara Boxer in CA • Colorado’s Appointed Senator Bennet in close race • Major ballot initiatives in AZ and CA Penultimate Draft 38
  39. 39. Beating Goliath Sen. Scott Lucas Maj. Leader 1949-1951 Sen. Ernest McFarland Maj. Leader 1951-1953 Rep. Tom Foley Speaker 1989-1995 Sen. Tom Daschle Maj. Leader 2001-2003 Penultimate Draft 39
  40. 40. Ballot Initiatives • Tax cuts and increases • Gay Marriage • Gambling • Legalize and Tax Marijuana Penultimate Draft 40
  41. 41. Governor’s Races • 39 Gubernatorial elections in 2009-10 • 21 Open Seats • Ds must protect 21 states; Rs 18 • 12 States Projected to Switch Parties Penultimate Draft 41
  42. 42. Governor’s Races • 39 Gubernatorial elections in 2009-10 • 21 Open Seats • Ds must protect 21 states; Rs 18 • 12 States Projected to Switch Parties Will Jerry Brown Orbit Penultimate Draft the Governor’s Mansion again? 42
  43. 43. What Factor Will Race Play? Penultimate Draft 43
  44. 44. Penultimate Draft 44
  45. 45. Penultimate Draft 45
  46. 46. CQ Projections: Senate Senate (60 Dems/40 GOP) 44 Dems 16 Dems 16 GOP 24 GOP Not Up Up Up Not Up Dem Safe Likely Leans Dem GOP Leans Safe Dems Dems Dem Leans GOP Likely GOP Tossup Tossups GOP GOP 5 6 4 3 2 5 2 6 1 Penultimate Draft 46
  47. 47. CQ House Projections House (257 Dems/178 GOP) 144 63 Dems 42 GOP 136 GOP Safe Competitive Competitive Safe GOP GOP Dem Likely Leans Dem Leans Likely Likely Leans Leans Dem Dem Tossups GOP GOP Dem Dem GOP 32 27 3 14 24 1 3 1 Penultimate Draft 47
  48. 48. CQ State House Projections Governors 28 Dems/22 GOP GOP GOP Dem Dems 16 Not Not Up/Safe 18 Competitive Seats Competitive Up/Safe 10 Seats 5 GOP GOP DEM Dem Likely Leans TOSSUP Leans Likely Likely Leans Leans Likely Dem Dem 3 Dems GOP GOP Dem Dem GOP GOP 2 8 4 GOP 5 4 1 2 4 1 Penultimate Draft 48
  49. 49. Predictions Penultimate Draft 49
  50. 50. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist “There is no way Dukakis or anyone for that matter can blow a 17 point lead.” Bennet Kelley Greece (August 1988) Penultimate Draft 50
  51. 51. Penultimate Draft 51
  52. 52. Penultimate Draft 52

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