Ace presentation gbf korea 26 oct 2011_final

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Ace presentation gbf korea 26 oct 2011_final

  1. 1. THE 3RD ASEAN ENERGY OUTLOOK THE GREEN BUSINESS FORUM 2011The Korea Energy Management Corporation (KEMCO) 26 October 2011, Seoul, Korea
  2. 2. ACE at the Glance The ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) was established on January 1, 1999 as an Inter-Governmental Organization, guided by a Governing Council composed of SOE Leaders of the ASEAN Member Countries. ACE as a technical catalyst for economic growth and development of ASEAN by initiating, coordinating, facilitating and disseminating all energy activities to the region and the rest of the world. Follow the Blueprint for ASEAN cooperation in the field of energy: The ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2010-2015, theme: “Bringing Policies to Actions: Towards a Cleaner, more Efficient and Sustainable ASEAN Energy Community”. ©ACE, October 2011 2
  3. 3. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook Mid 2011, the ASEAN Centre for Energy released The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook A joint output by ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ), and National ESSPA Teams. Developed an energy demand and supply outlook model for the ASEAN region up to 2030. ©ACE, October 2011 3
  4. 4. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook ASEAN is one of the fastest growing economic regions in the world and has a fast growing energy demand driven by economic and demographic growth. Economy and Demography• Total land area : 4.34 million square kilometers or 3.3% world’s land area• Total population : 566 million or around 8.6% of the total world population, grew by 1.4% per annum from 1995 to 2007• Total GDP : 866 billion USD (constant 2000 value), grown at an annual average rate of 4.3% from 1995 to 2007• GDP per capita varied widely among the member states from 343 to 29,185 USD in 2007 ©ACE, October 2011 4
  5. 5. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook Projection Scenarios • Used the historical correlation of final energy Business-as-Usual consumption and economic activity from 1980 to 2007. • The GDP growth as well as the energy supply would be(BAU) Scenario or the based on current targets by each government as well. Base Case Scenario • In view of the use of regression analysis, the trends of future consumption follow historical trends. • It is assumed that the energy efficiency saving goals of the governments of all the member states of ASEAN is met. Alternative Policy • The scenario also includes use of alternative fuels and Scenario (APS) technologies such as nuclear technology, renewable energy and biofuels. ©ACE, October 2011 5
  6. 6. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook Primary Energy Consumption from 1990 to 2030 (BaU Scenario)Total primary energy consumption increased from 252 MOTE in 1990, 339 MTOE in 1995 to 511 MTOE in 2007 or3.6% per annum. Under BaU, it will growth 4.5% per year from 2007 to reach 1,414 MTOE in 2030. Coal will havethe fastest annual growth as demand increases in power generation, but oil will remain as the major source ofenergy. ©ACE, October 2011 6
  7. 7. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook Primary Energy Consumption from 1990 to 2030 (APS)In the APS, the growth of primary energy consumption will be at a slower 3.6% per annum to reach only 1152MTOE in 2030, 18.5% lower than in the BAU scenario. This is the result of imposing EE&C action plans and savingtargets of the member countries. Primary energy intensity will decrease by 29.7% to 408 TOE/million USD. ©ACE, October 2011 7
  8. 8. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook Final Energy Consumption from 1990 to 2030 (BaU Scenario)Increased at an annual rate of 3.8% from 186 MTOE in 1990, to 241 MTOE in 1995, and to 375 MTOE in 2007. UnderBaU Scenario, Final Energy Consumption in ASEAN will grow at an average annual rate of 4.4% from 375 MTOE to1,018 MTOE in the period 2007-2030. The transport sector consumption will grow the fastest during the periodwith annual growth rate projected at 5.6% driven by the increasing per capita income. ©ACE, October 2011 8
  9. 9. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook Final Energy Consumption from 1990 to 2030 (APS)In the APS, final energy consumption will grow at a lower annual rate at 3.6% to 843 MTOE in 2030. This lowergrowth is a result of implementing the EE&C programs in all sectors, excluding use as non-energy. Compared to theBaU, the energy savings potential of the transport sector will be around 22.4%, while for the Industries and othersectors will be 19.3% and 14.5%. Overall, the average total energy saving in final consumption will be around 17.2%. ©ACE, October 2011 9
  10. 10. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook CO2 Emission from 1990 to 2030 (BaU Scenario vs APS)Total CO2 emission in the APS will be about 679 million tons of Carbon equivalent (Mt-C), 24% lower than the BaUscenario (895 Mt-C). CO2 emission per unit of GDP will also increase at the average annual rate of 0.5% from 283 t-C/million USD in 2007 to 317 t-C/million USD in 2030 in the BaU. In the APS, on the other hand, CO2 intensity willdecrease by 0.7% per year to 240 t-C/million USD. ©ACE, October 2011 10
  11. 11. The 3rd ASEAN Energy OutlookRAISED CONCERNS TO THE ENERGY SECURITY OF ASEAN & GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY• ASEAN will continue to be heavily dependent on fossil fuels especially oil in the future.• The rapid growth of electricity demand will also be a driving force in increasing use of fossil fuels especially coal.• One of the most effective ways of meeting future demand is improving energy efficiency as shown by the APS results. In this regard, ASEAN might to revisit their energy efficiency programs to optimize the benefits that could be derived from them.• Another sustainable way to meet increasing demand is to accelerate the development of clean energy such as renewable and alternative energy.• ASEAN needs to improve the energy investment climate so that it will become more conducive to investors.• ASEAN should also continue to strengthen regional cooperation especially in sharing best practices in energy development and utilization including energy efficiency. ©ACE, October 2011 11
  12. 12. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook FINDING AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS As member countries continue to pursue their economic goals, primary energy consumption and CO2 emission in ASEAN will increase almost three folds in the BaU scenario – there will be increasing pressure on energy security and global environmental stability. If current energy production levels in the region do not increase - the region will have to source out this additional demand from outside the region. Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs, low- carbon technologies and increased shares of non-fossil fuels in power generation - would be needed to reduce carbon intensity and enhance energy security. ©ACE, October 2011 12
  13. 13. CO2 Emissions by Fuel, Emissions per Head & Sector, and Carbon Intensity of Energy ©ACE, October 2011 13
  14. 14. CO2 Emissions by Fuel 1973 and 2007 Fuel Shares of CO2 Emissions** *World includes international aviation and international marine bunkers.**Calculated using IEA’s Energy Balance Tables and the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines. CO2 emissions are from fuel combustion only. *** Other includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste. Key World Energy Statistics , IEA 2009. ©ACE, October 2011 14
  15. 15. Global Energy Related CO2 Emissions 2005 ©ACE, October 2011 15
  16. 16. Carbon Intensity of Energy Carbon Intensity of Energy of Selected Countries 2003-2007 *World includes international aviation and international marine bunkers. Energy demand growth itself does not necessarily lead to an increase in emissions.Countries with substantial hydro or nuclear resources: Brazil & France have low carbon intensities. Countries which use a lot of coal: China & Australia show high intensities. [Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistic 2009 (data 2007)] ©ACE, October 2011 16
  17. 17. Mitigation Potential for A Specific Period of Time ©ACE, October 2011 17
  18. 18. Mitigation Potential for A Specific Period of Time ©ACE, October 2011 18
  19. 19. NATIONALLY APPROPRIATE MITIGATION ACTIONS (NAMAs) The Need ofIntegrated National ProcessesTHE GREEN BUSINESS FORUM 2011 The Korea EnergyManagement Corporation (KEMCO)26 October 2011, Seoul, Korea Dr. Hardiv H. Situmeang Kyoto, 2 July 2011
  20. 20. Decision 1/CP.16Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long- term Cooperative Action under the Convention Paragraph 48 Agrees that developing countries Parties will take NAMAs in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity building, aimed at achieving a deviation in emissions relative to “business as usual” emissions in 2020.
  21. 21. NAMAs by DEVELOPING COUNTRY PARTIES [Its Categories – Cancun, Mexico] Category Remarks (Unsupported or Self-supporting): Autonomous mitigation actions undertaken by developing country Parties on their own to achieve certain emission reduction level without international1. Domestically (outside) support under the UNFCCC framework as domestically Supported supported mitigation actions. The emission reduction achieved NAMAs would be accounted for the associated developing country Party, and the MRV should be done domestically. Associated required financing comes from domestic financial sources. Mitigation actions by developing country Parties supported directly by developed country Parties as internationally supported mitigation actions under the UNFCCC framework. The2. Internationally generated emission reductions cannot be used to offset Supported emissions by developed country Parties in meeting their GHG NAMAs emission reduction commitments. It would be accounted for the associated developing country Party, and the MRV should be done internationally in accordance with guidelines to be developed under the Convention.
  22. 22. Multi Sectoral Business as Usual Baseline Unilateral / (Aggregated) Domestically Supported NAMAs [GHG Emissions] Credited NAMAs Internationally Supported NAMAs Future Path of GHG Emissions T0 T1 Tn 2020 [Tahun]NAMAs Categories of Developing Country Parties
  23. 23. Unilateral / National Business as Usual Baseline Domestically (Multi Sectoral - Aggregated) Supported NAMAs [GHG Emissions] 26 % 41 % Credited NAMAs Internationally Supported NAMAs Future Path of GHG Emissions T0 T1 Tn 2020 [Tahun]National integrated processes in meeting the national emission reduction target based on cost effectiveness and its implementability level.
  24. 24. 3 RELATED KEY ISSUES THAT SHOULD BE SOLVED IN WIDE SPECTRUM BASIS To establish National Business as Usual Baseline which is a multi sectoral business as usual baseline (aggregated), and follows by establishment of aggregated mitigation actions, To establish NAMAs through National Integrated Processes to be put under 2 (two) NAMAs categories:  Domestically supported NAMAs to achieve the national emission reduction target which is 26% below the national business as usual baseline, and  Internationally supported NAMAs to achieve the national emission reduction target up to 41%, increase from 26% below the National Business as Usual Baseline under the UNFCCC framework, and To propose from the remaining aggregated mitigation actions which are not selected under the above NAMAs categories to be put further under credited NAMAs.
  25. 25. Future Path of GHG National Emissions Reduction (Multi Sectoral Mitigation Actions) National Business as Usual Baseline Past Trend and (Multi Sectoral - Aggregated) Current State ofGHG Emissions GHG Emissions  Sector # 1  Sector # 2  Sector # 3  Sector # 4  Sector # --  Sector # n Aggregated Mitigation Future Path Actions (Selected from of GHG Emissions Potential Mitigation Actions of Each Sectors T0 T1 Tn [T i m e] National integrated processes in meeting the national emission reduction target based on cost effectiveness and its implementability level.
  26. 26. Article 3.4 of the ConventionThe Parties have a right to, and should, promote sustainabledevelopment. Policies and measures to protect the climate systemagainst human-induced change should be appropriate for thespecific conditions of each Party and should be integrated withnational development programmes, taking into account thateconomic development is essential for adopting measures toaddress climate change. Integrate Climate Change Program into National Development Plan (Programmes)
  27. 27. Job Creation 4 PILLARS Economic and PovertyEradication NAMAs Social Development Meeting the National Emission Reduction Target as a Contribution to Global Coherent Mitigation Effort Please see: the UNFCCC Convention, Article 4, Paragraph 7.
  28. 28. SOME POSSIBLE SCREENING CRITERIASome possible screening criteria can be used to rank the implementabilitylevel of proposed potential mitigation action options of each sector besidesits cost effectiveness modified from the UNFCCC Resource Guide Module 4,and take into consideration the above four pillars such as:• Consistency with national development goal,• Consistency with national environmental goals,• Data availability and quality,• Political and social feasibility,• Replicability, e.g. adaptability to different geographical, socio-economic- cultural, legal, and regulatory settings, and• Macro-economic considerations, such as: the impact on GDP; the number of jobs created or lost; effects on inflation or interest rates; the implications for long-term development: sustainable economic growth & social development, and poverty eradication; foreign exchange and trade, etc.Screening criteria should be consistent with the overall framing of proposedpotential mitigation scenarios from each sector which is important anduseful when using bottom-up methodologies in which a wide range oftechnologies, national policies and existing legal and regulatory frameworks.The calculation of abatement cost for each potential mitigation action isconsidered as very important. The magnitude of its abatement cost and theagreed criteria will determine the priority level of each mitigation actions inits associated sectoral scope and its priority level in the national scale.
  29. 29. Proposed Potential Mitigation Actions Cost ImplementabilityEffectiveness Level Priority List Potential Mitigation Actions
  30. 30. POWER SECTOR TRANSPORT SECTOR Aggregated Aggregated Business-as- Business-as- Usual Usual Baseline Baseline Potential Potential Mitigation Mitigation Actions ActionsINDUSTRIAL SECTOR Aggregated Aggregated Business-as- Business-as- Integrated Usual Usual Baseline Baseline Modeling Potential Mitigation Actions Drive the energy system toward low carbon energy sources, low- carbon and carbon-free energy technologies, greater efficiency in energy production and distribution and in energy use.
  31. 31. Integrated Modeling of Energy Sector GHG • Macroeconomic and Energy ParametersEmissions • Data Base DevelopmentReduction • Development of Business as Usual BaselineScenarios • Sectoral Analysis Power Integrated Sector Modeling Industrial Sector Objectives,Strategies, and Transport Approaches. Sector • Integrating the associated emission reduction scenarios • Energy supply to meet useful energy demand • Broader energy mix to alleviate sustainable challenges • Etc.
  32. 32. National BAU Baseline / Aggregated BAU Baseline 1st Layer Energy Land Based Other Sector Sector Targeted Sector 2nd Layer Power Industry Transport REDD+ Other Sector Sector Sector Activity 3rd Layer Cement Pulp & Paper Required Processes to Establish National BAU Iron & Steel Baseline / Aggregated Textile BAU Baseline (Bottom-up Approach)Interconnectedpower systems By modes and Sub-sectors Sub-national and isolated sub-national Industry levels levels
  33. 33. Establishment of Aggregated Business as Usual Baseline of Each Sector Establishment of Potential Mitigation Actions of Each Sector Establishment of National Business as Usual Baseline and Aggregated Mitigation Actions Establishment of NAMAs and National Long-Term CO2 Emission Reduction Paths Calculate Carbon Budget for Each Sector Propose Required Policies, Measures and Instruments
  34. 34. Thank Youwww.aseanenergy.org

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