FGS 2012 - It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

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Ben Garney discusses the future of Flash and what Flash developers can do to survive it - and why he's feeling strangely calm about all of it.

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FGS 2012 - It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

  1. 1. It’s The End Of The World As We Know It, And I Feel Fine. By Ben Garney For latest slides & more info, visit http://bengarney.com/Saturday, March 3, 2012
  2. 2. Introduction • Who am I? • What’s going on? • Where are we going?Saturday, March 3, 2012
  3. 3. Hill Valley, 1955Saturday, March 3, 2012
  4. 4. GarageGames, 2006Saturday, March 3, 2012
  5. 5. Saturday, March 3, 2012
  6. 6. Recent Events • Adobe drops Flash in mobile browsers. • Financial analyst call in January. • Open sourcing Flex. • Flash Player Roadmap last month.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  7. 7. Flash in the Market • Flash has a great position. • But right behind it... • Corona, Moai, Unity • Scaleform, Iggy, In-house tech. • HTML5, Emscripten, Swiffy, GordonSaturday, March 3, 2012
  8. 8. ErosionSaturday, March 3, 2012
  9. 9. The Flash Tripod • Tools - Flash Builder, Flash Pro • Runtime - Player, AIR • Platform - SWF, AVM+, APIsSaturday, March 3, 2012
  10. 10. Declining AssetsSaturday, March 3, 2012
  11. 11. “Declining” Outcomes • Led to GG sale to IAC for ~$50M... • Left and started PushButton Labs... • Torque survived shutdown, still selling!Saturday, March 3, 2012
  12. 12. “Declining Asset” is a label to help make decisions. Not business reality.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  13. 13. Back to Adobe... • Writing on the wall. • Long term winner: HTML5 • But Flash still lives....Saturday, March 3, 2012
  14. 14. CommunitySaturday, March 3, 2012
  15. 15. Tech Communities • Look out for the vocal minority. • The people you hear from are emotionally invested. • Users have a limited perspective.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  16. 16. Saturday, March 3, 2012
  17. 17. Reaction • End of the world! • Flash is dead! • Wait, are we talking about our ex-girlfriend, or software?Saturday, March 3, 2012
  18. 18. Reports Of My Death...Saturday, March 3, 2012
  19. 19. Adobe’s Outs • Replace Player with HTML5. • Leverage tools to target JS. • And the subtle play...Saturday, March 3, 2012
  20. 20. Adobe’s Outs • HTML5 is the future. • Open standard. • Public opinion supports it! • Wide deployment.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  21. 21. Adobe’s Outs • HTML5 is the future? • Vendor friction. • Mixed priorities. • JS is not great for large apps.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  22. 22. Adobe’s Outs • Take advantage of HTML5 boom. • Take Flash off the agenda... • And let it fly under the radar.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  23. 23. Flash Outcomes • Could die quietly... • Could maximize revenue in mid-term... • Could allow a renaissance.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  24. 24. Future ProofingSaturday, March 3, 2012
  25. 25. Build it, and they will come.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  26. 26. Diversify.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  27. 27. Platforms Die.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  28. 28. (And I Feel Fine.)Saturday, March 3, 2012
  29. 29. Saturday, March 3, 2012
  30. 30. Saturday, March 3, 2012
  31. 31. Saturday, March 3, 2012
  32. 32. ConclusionSaturday, March 3, 2012
  33. 33. Conclusion • Flash is a “declining asset”... • (Whatever that means.) • Leverage Flash as long as you can! • Your skillsets are not... • Future proof yourself.Saturday, March 3, 2012
  34. 34. Conclusion • Thanks for coming! • http://bengarney.com • @bengarney • Questions?Saturday, March 3, 2012

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