IBM Institute for Business ValueMobile driving Internet to the massesRob van den DamGlobal Telecommunications Industry Lea...
IBM Institute for Business ValueThe IBM Institute for Business Value creates fact basedthought leadership that help client...
IBM Institute for Business ValueAgenda          A short Look Back          Disruptive Forces          A Connected and S...
IBM Institute for Business ValueOver the past decade global communications penetration - andmobile cellular telephony spec...
IBM Institute for Business Value    CSPs* in developing markets have shown strong growth and even    lead the way in adopt...
IBM Institute for Business ValueThen came the era of mobile internet, data, a mass of applications, andthe ability to also...
IBM Institute for Business ValueIn China, as in many other Asian markets, mobile devices are theprimary device to access t...
IBM Institute for Business ValueIn China, the number of 3G subscribers is growing fast; Chinasurpassed US in smartphone sh...
IBM Institute for Business ValueDramatic forces are radically altering the telecommunications land-scape, confronting CSPs...
IBM Institute for Business Value OTT providers are expanding their dominant position in the communications landscape      ...
IBM Institute for Business ValueAlmost each Social Media tool as the world knows it hasits equivalent in China            ...
IBM Institute for Business ValueChinese Consumers are increasingly communicating over-the-top: IM, Chat, Internet Video st...
IBM Institute for Business Value     Internet users in China use mobile/wireless devices to     access the internet more t...
IBM Institute for Business Value  According CNNIC instant messaging is by far the most used  mobile Internet application, ...
IBM Institute for Business ValueMobile data (really video) explodes, causing significant capexand opex pressures on CSPs  ...
IBM Institute for Business ValueConsumers now have unprecedented power to build & demolishbrand strength as they blog, tex...
IBM Institute for Business ValueFamily/Friends, Internet search and Social Media havebecome the preferred sources of infor...
IBM Institute for Business ValueActive government involvement means increasingregulations                                 ...
IBM Institute for Business ValueThe global hierarchy is changing as we see a shift of economicpower from mature to emergin...
IBM Institute for Business Value In China, people expect to significantly increase spending on mobile broadband           ...
IBM Institute for Business ValueIBM’s Telco 2015 Scenario envisioning study reveals four contrastinglikely future scenario...
IBM Institute for Business ValueFor all four scenarios rollout of new technologies are required tosolve the problem of dis...
IBM Institute for Business ValueOur world is changing and becoming smarter                   It is becoming increasingly  ...
IBM Institute for Business Value By investing in smarter networks, Cloud, analytics and security CSPs can play a crucial r...
IBM Institute for Business Value  ….and use the mobile internet and smarter applications to  improve lifestyle of people  ...
IBM Institute for Business Value                                   Thank you                                              ...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Mobile driving Internet to the masses - Mobile Internet World 2012

1,107 views

Published on

Presentation for Mobile Internet World & Awards, Dec 6 2012, Beijing, China

0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,107
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
5
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
101
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Mobile driving Internet to the masses - Mobile Internet World 2012

  1. 1. IBM Institute for Business ValueMobile driving Internet to the massesRob van den DamGlobal Telecommunications Industry LeaderIBM Institute for Business Value © 2012 IBM Corporation
  2. 2. IBM Institute for Business ValueThe IBM Institute for Business Value creates fact basedthought leadership that help clients realize business value Future Value Realization CXO Agendas Studies Surveys 3 to 10 year industry outlook In-depth assessment of today’s Chief Officiers studies – CEO, with action oriented next steps critical issues, opportunities, etc CIO, CMO, CFO, CHRO, etc.2 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  3. 3. IBM Institute for Business ValueAgenda  A short Look Back  Disruptive Forces  A Connected and Smarter world  Telecom as Middleware for a smarter world3 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  4. 4. IBM Institute for Business ValueOver the past decade global communications penetration - andmobile cellular telephony specifically - has been phenomenal Telecom Penetration 1999 - 2011 90% Mobile subscriptions Internet Users 80% Fixed Telephone lines Fixed BB Subscriptions 70% Mobile BB Subscriptions 60% 50% 40% 30% 1999: 2011: 20% Access to Mobile- 10% telephone cellular of any kind subscriptions 0% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 ± 15% ± 85%4 Source: ITU Statistics database © 2012 IBM Corporation
  5. 5. IBM Institute for Business Value CSPs* in developing markets have shown strong growth and even lead the way in adoption of the SMS-based data lifestyle applications Mobile Cellular Subscriptions 140% Telecom Penetration 120% Developed 100% Developing China 80% 2001 60% Total 719 40% million 20% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 SMS-based data lifestyle applications Total 6 billion China Mobile offers Developed ‘Nong Xin Tong’ for Developing farmers to provide news, weather information and details of farming-related government policies (50 million users) ± 1 billion5 *Communications Service Provider © 2012 IBM Corporation
  6. 6. IBM Institute for Business ValueThen came the era of mobile internet, data, a mass of applications, andthe ability to also send images/video from everyone to everywhere Mobile internet subscriptions Q3 2011 Mobile data 50% 40% Data 30% 20% Developed Developing Voice 10% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Smartphones/Tablets App Stores In 2011 sold: Nbr applications: - 490 Mio Smartphones (63% 10/11 growth) - iPhone Apps > 500K - 210 Mio Notebooks - Android Apps > 600K (7.5% 10/11 growth) - Window Phone > 100K - 63 Mio Tablets (274% 10/11growth)6 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  7. 7. IBM Institute for Business ValueIn China, as in many other Asian markets, mobile devices are theprimary device to access the Internet Mobile Internet as percentage of Mobile subscriptions and Internet users (January 2011) 100% Mobile Internet Users as % of Mobile Subscriptions Mobile Internet Users as % of Internet Users 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% South Japan China US Indonesia India Korea 37% June 2012 72% June 2012 Source: ITU Statistics database7 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  8. 8. IBM Institute for Business ValueIn China, the number of 3G subscribers is growing fast; Chinasurpassed US in smartphone shipments 30% Share of global 3G subscriptions in China40% Smartphone shipments as percentage of Mobile30% subscriptions 20%20% 201110% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 0% 30% Internet & Mobile Internet users600 Internet Users Mobile Internet Users 20%500 2012400 10%300200100 0% 0 China US India Brasil UK 2008Dec 2009Jun 2009Dec 2010Jun 2010Dec 2011Jun 2011Dec 2012Jun © 2012 IBM Corporation8 Source: China Internet Network Information Center, 2012; IDC 2012
  9. 9. IBM Institute for Business ValueDramatic forces are radically altering the telecommunications land-scape, confronting CSPs with both major challenges and opportunities Disruptive Over- Empowerment of the-Top (OTT) Consumer Competitors Rise of Social Active Government Media Involvement Explosion of Change in Global Mobile Data Hierarchy9 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  10. 10. IBM Institute for Business Value OTT providers are expanding their dominant position in the communications landscape Market Value Market Value of Market Top 25 Value of drivers = 1/2 Top 150 Telecom of Internet Providers traffic 70% of market cap The massive shift in value continues towards the OTTs as capital markets prize the direct customer relationship and value provided by OTTs, >>>>>>> reducing the CSP valuation back to utility status!10 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  11. 11. IBM Institute for Business ValueAlmost each Social Media tool as the world knows it hasits equivalent in China Source: MCI China 201111 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  12. 12. IBM Institute for Business ValueChinese Consumers are increasingly communicating over-the-top: IM, Chat, Internet Video streaming, Social Networks, VoIP Daily UNDER 25s Usage 1 Email/IM/Chat 87% 2 3 Mobile Telephony Social Networking 85% 62% 62% of under 25s 4 Video Streaming 57% use social networks 5 Fixed Voice 47% daily 6 VoIP 26% 1 Email/IM/Chat 89% 2 Mobile Telephony 87% 57% of under 25s 3 Fixed Voice 68% with Internet 4 Social Networking 60% stream or 5 Video Streaming 59% download video daily ABOVE 25s 6 VoIP 41%12 © 2012 IBM Corporation Source: 2011 IBM Global Telecom Consumer Survey
  13. 13. IBM Institute for Business Value Internet users in China use mobile/wireless devices to access the internet more than consumers in mature markets Half of Chinese internet users access UGC, Daily Mobile/Wireless Internet access: live video broadcasts and audio content daily comparison between China and mature markets (% of survey respondents) User Generated Content 49% 45% (e.g. YouKu) 51% 20% Live Video 51% 41% Broadcast Audio Content 43% (e.g. online music, 54% 37% Internet radio) 19% Daily Use Weekly China 21% Microblog users in China (in millions & percentage of internet users) Mature 10% markets 2010 63,1 (13.8%) (47,7%) 2011 249,913 © 2012 IBM Corporation Source: 2011 IBM Global Telecom Consumer Survey,; China Internet Network Information Center, Jan 2012
  14. 14. IBM Institute for Business Value According CNNIC instant messaging is by far the most used mobile Internet application, putting pressure on CSP revenue Population of users of mobile Internet services to total mobile Internet population in China (end June 2012) Instant Messaging 83% Search 67% News 58% Music 0,492 Microblogs 44% Online books 42% Social Networks 41% Games 30% Videos 28% Source: China Internet Network Information Center, 2012;14 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  15. 15. IBM Institute for Business ValueMobile data (really video) explodes, causing significant capexand opex pressures on CSPs Global Mobile Data Traffic, 2011–2016 (TB x 1000/ month) 10 8 0 4 10804 Mobile VoIP Middle East & Africa Mobile Gaming Central & Eastern Europe Mobile File Sharing 20% Latin America 6896 78% 6896 18% Mobile M2M North America CAGR Mobile Web/Data Western Europe 4 2 15 4215 23% Mobile Video Asia Pacific 2379 2 3 79 70.5 12 52 % 1252 40% 59 7 597 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2016 • Global mobile data grew 2.3-fold • Mobile data traffic will increase 18-fold • Mobile video traffic exceeded 50% • 2/3 of mobile data traffic will be video • China accounts for 5% of mobile traffic • China will account for > 10% of mobile traffic15 © 2012 IBM Corporation Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2011–2016.
  16. 16. IBM Institute for Business ValueConsumers now have unprecedented power to build & demolishbrand strength as they blog, text and comment via Social Media Perceived Quality Mobile Internet Connection What happens when being disconnected? Availability Disconnections Most/ Always sometimes Never Sometimes/ Never 7% Always Attempt to redial/reconnect 34% 61% 25% Most 93% 23% of Tell friends about my Tell friends/ the poor experience 14% 79% family bout time their poor Most of the time Avoid providers with experience whom friends had bad 15% 75% 43% experiences Contact customer 90% 8% 77% Avoid service Providers Never/Sometimes 69% with poor Switch providers, - 8% 62% experience e.g. use a different SIM Always 32% My provider proactively 9% 58% contact me16 Source: 2011 IBM Global Telecom Consumer Survey, China © 2012 IBM Corporation
  17. 17. IBM Institute for Business ValueFamily/Friends, Internet search and Social Media havebecome the preferred sources of information in China What are you preferred sources of information when you are looking for communication products and services? 66% Recommendations/ advice 72% 56% Internet search 57% 45% Social media 59% 34% Websites of communication providers 24% 20% Emails/ promotional offers 15% 18% Traditional advertising 19% 8% Shopping portals/ auctions 10% All Ages Under 25s 8% Retail stores 11% Source: IBM Institute for Business value 2011 IBM Global Telecom Consumer Survey,17 Question: What are you preferred sources of information when you are looking for communication products and services? © 2012 IBM Corporation
  18. 18. IBM Institute for Business ValueActive government involvement means increasingregulations 2010 70% of Telecom CEOs Global anticipate heavier CEO Study regulations ahead Small government, light Big government, heavier 16% 14% 70% regulation regulation Move or return to unrestrained Greater government involvement, market with limited state more regulation and government ownership or regulatory reform as a stakeholder in strategic businesses CH EU Broadband regulations © 2012 IBM Corporation18
  19. 19. IBM Institute for Business ValueThe global hierarchy is changing as we see a shift of economicpower from mature to emerging markets Expected Consumer Spending Mature Expected Consumer Spending Mature Net Increase/Decrease markets Net Increase/Decrease Mobile Telephony M obileTelephony 40% Utilities Utilities 4% Mobile Broadband M obile broadband 36% Food &&drinks Food drinks -3% Transportation Transportation 33% Transportation Transportation -6% Fixed Telephony. Fixed Telephony 33% MobileMobile Broadband broadband -10% Holidays Holidays/vacations 32% MobileTelepony Mobile Telephony -14% Clothing Clothing 28% PayPay television television -16% Utilities Electric/Gas Utilities 27% Sports Sports -18% Food & drinks Food & drinks 27% Fixed Telephony Fixed Telephony -19% Going out Going out 20% Clothing Clothing -19% Elect. Appliances Electrical appliances 16% Holidays Holiday/vacation -23% Pay television Pay television 16% +26%average Electrical Elect.Appliances -24% appliances Sports Sports 5% Going out out Going -32% Q4 2011 Mobile Operators Q4 2011 Mobile Operators Service Revenue Growth YoY: 14.6% Service Revenue Growth YoY: 0.6%19 © 2012 IBM Corporation Source: 2011 IBM Global Telecom Consumer Survey, Global N= 13237 Question: Compared to previous years, are you likely to spend less, the same or more on the following products / services in the next 2-3 years?
  20. 20. IBM Institute for Business Value In China, people expect to significantly increase spending on mobile broadband Net Increase / Decrease Consumer spending MOBILE Broadband (2011 – 2014) Emerging Markets 45% Netherlands 35% 31% Germany Czech R. Australia Canada. Portugal Belgium Sweden Greece France Cyprus Japan Spain USA Italy 15% 15% UK 12% 8% 5% 6% -3% -2% South Africa Russia UAE China Poland India Korea Mexico Brazil -7% -7% -6% -6% -10% -9% -13% -12% -16% -15% -20% -25% -32% -43% Q05 Compared to 2010 and previous Mature Markets years, are you likely to spend less, the same or more on the following products / services in the next 2-3 years?20 Source: 2011 IBM Global Telecom Consumer Survey, Global N= 13237; Mature Countries N=8865; Emerging Countries N=4372; © 2012 IBM Corporation Question: Compared to previous years, are you likely to spend less, the same or more on the following products / services in the next 2-3 years?
  21. 21. IBM Institute for Business ValueIBM’s Telco 2015 Scenario envisioning study reveals four contrastinglikely future scenarios for the telecommunications industry FUTURE INDUSTRY SCENARIOS •• Disaggregation of Carrier collaboration CLASH OF • Carrier Assets Co-op of GENERATIVE and alliances GIANTS infrastructure •• Involvement Vertical Common Critical BAZAR End-to-end Govern- Success Attributes providers ment, Municipalities Market solutions • Fragmentation •• Mega & Affordable OpenCarriers Cost-effective ultra-fast broadband strategy connectivity to in •• Driven Network /customer insights to by Brands Emerging Carriers optimize experience & costperson/object any Mature markets Agile, flexible, reconfigurable processes & infrastructure •Reduce Spending Cost containment Consumers Culture of innovation and • ARPU Erosion collaboration • Investor Loss of SURVIVAL MARKET Confidence CONSOLIDATION SHAKEOUT • Cash Crisis21 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  22. 22. IBM Institute for Business ValueFor all four scenarios rollout of new technologies are required tosolve the problem of disassociated revenue and costs 500 WiFi Million subscribers MEATraffic 400 LatanVolume / Voice Traffic 300 Asia/Pacific WiFiRevenue Dominant Mobile 200 CEE Data Network Cost Offload (existing 100 Western Europe technologies) North America 0 2012 2015 Ecosystem Revenue Telecom Revenue Network Cost China accelerates plans to (future issue 4G LTE permits by 2013 technologies) 11/09/12, Beijing China may be getting 4G LTE considerably earlier than previously suggested the government. The Minister for Information and IT, Data Dominant Miao Wei, had previously told regional carriers that 4G permits would not be issued until 2014, Time however a report by Chinese state press Xinhua claims he is instead preparing to issue 4G permits next year. Source: Nokia-Siemens; IBM Institute for Business Value (IBV) Analysis22 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  23. 23. IBM Institute for Business ValueOur world is changing and becoming smarter It is becoming increasingly INSTRUMENTED Billions of camera phones, billions of RFID tags embedded into our world and across entire ecosystems It is becoming more INTERCONNECTED At the end of 2011 2.3 billion people were on the Web …. and a trillion connected objects – cars, appliances, camera, roadways, pipelines – will comprise the “Internet of Things” Systems are becoming more INTELLIGENT 90% of the world’s data was created in the past 2 years. 2.5 quintillion bytes of data created every day23 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  24. 24. IBM Institute for Business Value By investing in smarter networks, Cloud, analytics and security CSPs can play a crucial role in enabling smarter industries …. Smarter energy Smarter Smarter Smarter Smarter solutions and utilities government healthcare transportation for retail Smarter Smarter Smarter Smarter Smarter banking chemical and insurance education electronics petroleum24 © 2012 IBM Corporation
  25. 25. IBM Institute for Business Value ….and use the mobile internet and smarter applications to improve lifestyle of people Retail/Shopping Banking/Insurance Healthcare Vertical Market applications ranked as #1 by consumers surveyed in CHINA Nbr 1: Receive Mobile Nbr 1: Manage bank Nbr 1: Reminders for coupons/Discounts (57%) accounts through mobile medications/appointments (54%) device (59%) Public Services Travel & Transport Utilities Nbr 1: Authentisate for Nbr 1: Pay for public Nbr 1: Alert when monthly usage public/local services (56%) transportation (60%) reaches pre-set threshold (61%) © 2012 IBM Corporation25 Source: 2011 IBM Global Telecom Consumer Survey, China
  26. 26. IBM Institute for Business Value Thank you Rob van den Dam Global Telecom Industry Leader IBM Institute for Business Valuewww.ibm.com/iibv rob_vandendam@nl.ibm.com26 © 2012 IBM Corporation

×