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How your data can predict the future                               Big Data Neural Networks &                             ...
THEFUTURE            `THAT FITS
WHATYOU DOEQUALSDATA
Approaches to                              Reading Tools                                 Ethics         Prediction        ...
WORLD VIEWOF DATA
World View of Data:“What is Big data?”"What is true and false – i.e., how we see theworld?”“Building Blocks”"How should we...
“ Every time weblog, comment on one, usesend an  email, post a                perform a search, tweet,                    ...
The New York Times recently explainedBig Data as“ looking at that  Big Analysis…  information in  novel ways to  find new ...
Cheryl Phillips of The Seattle Timesconcluded that“ transformative Big Data is the power of technology and “ storytelling
HAPPINESSMETRICS:YOURFEELINGSAS BIGDATA
SPREAD OF IDEAS
MOSAICTHEORY
SENTIMENT PROCEEDS OUTCOMESENTIMENTPROCEEDSOUTCOME
ACCESSTO DATA,TOOLS, &VISUALIZATION
DATA ASRELEVATION
ORREVOLUTION
OREXISTENTIAL DETERMINISM            “Why Big Data won’t make            you smart, pretty, or rich”            – Fast Com...
OVER-      CONFIRMATION      WHO MINDSCONFIDENCE   BIAS / MOTIVES   THE MODELS?                                INPUTFEEDBA...
PREDICT• WHERE YOU ARE LIKELY  TO GO• WHAT MOVIE YOU WILL  WATCH• WHAT ART YOU WILL BUY
DESCRIPTIVE > PREDICTIVE >PRESCRIPTIVE“How Companies Know Your Secrets” Feb 2012
CULTROMICS“Volume 16, Number 9”5 September 2011
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich
APPROACHESTO PREDICTION
THE USE OF STATISTICALMODELS
EARTHQUAKE MODEL
GENETIC MODELS
MODELS +DATA
NEURAL NETWORKS
PREDICTIONMARKETS
PREDICTIONMARKETS
USE CASE FORADVERTISING
SELF-GENERATEDBEHAVIOR CHANGE
Christoph Sebastian Deterdinghttp://codingconduct.cc/#2733848/The-MAO-Model-Research-for-Behavior-Change
Christoph Sebastian Deterdinghttp://codingconduct.cc/#2733848/The-MAO-Model-Research-for-Behavior-Change
Christoph Sebastian Deterdinghttp://codingconduct.cc/#2733848/The-MAO-Model-Research-for-Behavior-Change
Christoph Sebastian Deterdinghttp://codingconduct.cc/#2733848/The-MAO-Model-Research-for-Behavior-Change
ETHICS
Automating Research Changes                the Definition of KnowledgeSIX                Claims to Objectivity and Accurac...
PRIVACY   OWNERSHIP   CONTRIBUTION
DATA ANDANALYTICSCONCEPTS
DATA STORAGE CONCEPTSGoogle “Robert Scoble + Cloudera”
OBTAIN    MODELCLEAN     VISUALIZEEXPLORE   INTERPRET
OBTAIN + CLEANhttps://bitly.com/bundles/hmason/1
EXPLORE
MODEL
INTERPRET aka WRANGLE
READING,TOOLS,RESOURCES
THOUGHT          Daniel Rasmus          Danah BoydLEADERS   Kate Crawford          Hilary Mason          Alex Pentland    ...
TOOLS + PLATFORMS
WHAT YOU’LL NEED FOR YOURSELFWhat you’ll need for yourself Understand how you work – how do you value rewards Monitoring s...
AN ANALYTICS PRACTICE IN ACREATIVE ENVIRONMENT   Business Intelligence and economics analysts   A rolodex of model maker...
A PREDICTIONABOUT DATA
DATA EXCHANGESOF BEHAVIOR,INTENTION — YOUWILL OWN IT
FURTHER DEBATEON OPEN VSCLOSED DATA
AN EXCHANGE FOR MODELS   ANTHROPOLOGIS                   PSYCHOLOGISTS     TEACHERS        TS     PHYSICIANS     ECONOMIST...
INDUSTRIESTO BETRANSFORMED
THE BEST WAYTO PREDICTTHE FUTURE ISTO INVENT IT“   This is the century in which you    can be proactive about the    futur...
How Your Data Can Predict The Future
How Your Data Can Predict The Future
How Your Data Can Predict The Future
How Your Data Can Predict The Future
How Your Data Can Predict The Future
How Your Data Can Predict The Future
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How Your Data Can Predict The Future

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Today, we have data – lots of it. We can process information – in many ways. And with these two tools and a little bit of creativity, we are discovering the vast depths of human behavior and by extension, a way to accurately predict the future -- and our future happiness. In fact, we can quantify human movement, behaviors, desires, and even moods on a scale that wasn’t possible before a series of advances in processing power, developments in psychology and social network science, and most importantly, access to data.
In advertising, industry, and humanity, we have experienced the evolution from Web 1.0 (informational) to Web 2.0 (platform) to Web 3.0 (semantic) to elements of Web 4.0 (anticipatory) – In this anticipatory era, what can we dream of next? Beyond addressability and increasing ad relevance, how can businesses utilize these advances in product development and other market initiatives? Can we make the leap from inductive logic to human-paralleled intuition? Can this make up for our human brain mechanics that make predicting our own happiness so difficult?
In this talk we’ll cover the evolutions in data access, models for information processing, and the science of collaboration to see not only how they have been leveraged in businesses but also how they are used to better understand human behavior, and hopefully in the near future, a little bit of happiness.

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How Your Data Can Predict The Future

  1. How your data can predict the future Big Data Neural Networks & Prediction Markets #happydata @gnostica March 10, 2012Becky Wang Twitter.com/gnosticaSaatchiNY Head of Insights & Analytics / Director of Digital Linkedin.com/in/gnostica
  2. THEFUTURE `THAT FITS
  3. WHATYOU DOEQUALSDATA
  4. Approaches to Reading Tools Ethics Prediction Resources 2 4 6 1 3 5 7 Use Case for Data and A PredictionWorld View Advertising Analytics Concepts About Data
  5. WORLD VIEWOF DATA
  6. World View of Data:“What is Big data?”"What is true and false – i.e., how we see theworld?”“Building Blocks”"How should we attain our goals?”"What should we do?""Where are we heading?”
  7. “ Every time weblog, comment on one, usesend an email, post a perform a search, tweet, a cell phone, shop online, update our profile on a social networking site, use a credit card, or even go to the gym, we leave behind a mountain of data, a digital footprint, that provides a treasure trove of information . . . forming a ‘societal nervous system’ that is generating a cloud of data about “ people that is growing at an exponential rate – Frank Moss, former director, MIT Media Lab
  8. The New York Times recently explainedBig Data as“ looking at that Big Analysis… information in novel ways to find new patterns “ for prediction
  9. Cheryl Phillips of The Seattle Timesconcluded that“ transformative Big Data is the power of technology and “ storytelling
  10. HAPPINESSMETRICS:YOURFEELINGSAS BIGDATA
  11. SPREAD OF IDEAS
  12. MOSAICTHEORY
  13. SENTIMENT PROCEEDS OUTCOMESENTIMENTPROCEEDSOUTCOME
  14. ACCESSTO DATA,TOOLS, &VISUALIZATION
  15. DATA ASRELEVATION
  16. ORREVOLUTION
  17. OREXISTENTIAL DETERMINISM “Why Big Data won’t make you smart, pretty, or rich” – Fast Company, Daniel Rasmus
  18. OVER- CONFIRMATION WHO MINDSCONFIDENCE BIAS / MOTIVES THE MODELS? INPUTFEEDBACK LACK OF CHANGES LOOPS MODELS (BECAUSE THE WORLD CHANGES)
  19. PREDICT• WHERE YOU ARE LIKELY TO GO• WHAT MOVIE YOU WILL WATCH• WHAT ART YOU WILL BUY
  20. DESCRIPTIVE > PREDICTIVE >PRESCRIPTIVE“How Companies Know Your Secrets” Feb 2012
  21. CULTROMICS“Volume 16, Number 9”5 September 2011
  22. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich
  23. APPROACHESTO PREDICTION
  24. THE USE OF STATISTICALMODELS
  25. EARTHQUAKE MODEL
  26. GENETIC MODELS
  27. MODELS +DATA
  28. NEURAL NETWORKS
  29. PREDICTIONMARKETS
  30. PREDICTIONMARKETS
  31. USE CASE FORADVERTISING
  32. SELF-GENERATEDBEHAVIOR CHANGE
  33. Christoph Sebastian Deterdinghttp://codingconduct.cc/#2733848/The-MAO-Model-Research-for-Behavior-Change
  34. Christoph Sebastian Deterdinghttp://codingconduct.cc/#2733848/The-MAO-Model-Research-for-Behavior-Change
  35. Christoph Sebastian Deterdinghttp://codingconduct.cc/#2733848/The-MAO-Model-Research-for-Behavior-Change
  36. Christoph Sebastian Deterdinghttp://codingconduct.cc/#2733848/The-MAO-Model-Research-for-Behavior-Change
  37. ETHICS
  38. Automating Research Changes the Definition of KnowledgeSIX Claims to Objectivity and AccuracyPROVOCATIONS are MisleadingOF DATA Bigger Data are Not Always Better Databy Not All Data Are EquivalentDanah Boyd Just Because it is Accessibleand Doesn’t Make it EthicalKate Crawford Limited Access to Big Data Creates New Digital Divides
  39. PRIVACY OWNERSHIP CONTRIBUTION
  40. DATA ANDANALYTICSCONCEPTS
  41. DATA STORAGE CONCEPTSGoogle “Robert Scoble + Cloudera”
  42. OBTAIN MODELCLEAN VISUALIZEEXPLORE INTERPRET
  43. OBTAIN + CLEANhttps://bitly.com/bundles/hmason/1
  44. EXPLORE
  45. MODEL
  46. INTERPRET aka WRANGLE
  47. READING,TOOLS,RESOURCES
  48. THOUGHT Daniel Rasmus Danah BoydLEADERS Kate Crawford Hilary Mason Alex Pentland Nicholas Christakis Andreas Weigand MIT Media Lab Scott Page Sebastian Deterding Charles Duhigg Opera Networks Cloudera Quantified Self Martin Binder
  49. TOOLS + PLATFORMS
  50. WHAT YOU’LL NEED FOR YOURSELFWhat you’ll need for yourself Understand how you work – how do you value rewards Monitoring software or data entry for the cue Software (understand the relationship between the cue and the routine) Visualization is key Iterate
  51. AN ANALYTICS PRACTICE IN ACREATIVE ENVIRONMENT Business Intelligence and economics analysts A rolodex of model makers – anthropologists, editors, authors Open Data Tools – Palantir, Quid, Recorded Future Visualize to make the case A development environment at your desktop Creative team to prototype
  52. A PREDICTIONABOUT DATA
  53. DATA EXCHANGESOF BEHAVIOR,INTENTION — YOUWILL OWN IT
  54. FURTHER DEBATEON OPEN VSCLOSED DATA
  55. AN EXCHANGE FOR MODELS ANTHROPOLOGIS PSYCHOLOGISTS TEACHERS TS PHYSICIANS ECONOMISTS ARTISTS JOURNALISTS NOVELISTS TECHNOLOGISTS
  56. INDUSTRIESTO BETRANSFORMED
  57. THE BEST WAYTO PREDICTTHE FUTURE ISTO INVENT IT“ This is the century in which you can be proactive about the future; you dont have to be reactive. The whole idea of having scientists and technology is that “ those things you can envision and describe can actually be built. — Alan C. Kay, fellow at Apple Computer Inc.

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