Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of Gaming

  Ben Cousins, EA




Andreas Gursky – 99 Cent (1...
Generic Personal Opinion
       Disclaimer
      The personal opinions of the presenter
      expressed during this talk d...
Nostradamus
‟The Wii will fail‟ – Ben
   Cousins, E3 2006
FAIL


       ‟The Wii will fail‟ – Ben
          Cousins, E3 2006
”Future of games is :-

• User Created Content
• Data in the cloud, not
  local
• Simple interfaces
• Mass market content
...
”Future of games is :-

• User Created Content
• Data in the cloud, not
  local
• Simple interfaces
• Mass market content
...
„The Innovators Dilemma‟, Clayton M. Christensen
The Automobile and the Supermarket
Piggly Wiggly (est. 1916)
Horatio Nelson Jackson
„New and Improved‟ – Richard S. Tedlow
1919




From the Smithsonian Collection
1920




From the Smithsonian Collection
1947




From the Smithsonian Collection
King Kullen (est. 1930)
„New and Improved‟ – Richard S. Tedlow
• The status quo was a high-quality but costly and
  inconvenient experience

• A new technology appeared and grew exponen...
The Internet and the Videogame




Tim Berners-Lee‟s first ever WWW server at CERN
Zzap 64 covers
• The status quo was a high-quality but costly and
  inconvenient experience

• A new technology appeared and grew exponen...
• The status quo was a high-quality but costly and
  inconvenient experience
• A new technology appeared and grew exponentially
• This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher
    convenience, cheaper consumer experience


         Travian     ...
• This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher
  convenience, cheaper consumer experience




    Online           ...
• This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher
  convenience, cheaper consumer experience




                     ...
• This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher
  convenience, cheaper consumer experience




 Entry price         ...
120




             100




              80
Metacritic




              60




              40




              20


...
Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
Accessibility




Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
New items,
     Accessibility                     payment methods




Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
New items,
     Accessibility                       payment methods




                                       Quality
Bat...
• Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice
  and easy access to products
• Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high
  quality expectations that would keep them paying the
  high price...
• The new business model grew exponentially and took
  over
Firefox
Elite




                   vs
Paradroid
                        Gauntlet




Forbidden Forest        Operation W...
Arcade         Home



              Outrun




         Gauntlet




                    Ghouls and Ghosts
Arcade                   Home




                                Commodore 64
         Space Harrier




         Outrun
...
House of the Dead

£0.50 = 10 minutes

Cost per hour = £3




Tomb Raider

£40 = 25 hours

Cost per hour = £1.60
PlayMeter 2006 figures    NPD 2006 figures

NA Industry total revenue    NA Industry total revenue

                $6 bil...
PlayMeter 2006 figures    NPD 2006 figures

NA Industry total revenue    NA Industry total revenue

                $6 bil...
PlayMeter 2006 figures        NPD 2006 figures

NA Industry total revenue        NA Industry total revenue

              ...
Further reading
The Innovator‟s Dilemma - Clayton M.
             Christensen

       Free – Chris Anderson

      Trade-O...
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of
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Can we expect as cataclysmic a power-shift in our industry as the US retail business experienced in the last century? This presentation uses the historical analogy of the rise of the supermarket in the post-automobile world to inform us about a possible future of the games industry. How did the technological revolution of the motor car create an increase in convenience and a reduction of the quality of the shopping experience for the average American, and how did that shift change the retail landscape in the US? How can we apply this and similar technology-driven business revolutions to our own rapidly changing industry as we react to the technological revolution of the internet?

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Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of

  1. 1. Kings of Convenience - What Walmart Tells Us About the Future of Gaming Ben Cousins, EA Andreas Gursky – 99 Cent (1999)
  2. 2. Generic Personal Opinion Disclaimer The personal opinions of the presenter expressed during this talk do not necessarily state or reflect those of Electronic Arts and should not be interpreted in any way as representing current or future policies of that organization. Any attempt to reproduce opinions expressed during this talk as representative of Electronic Arts will be met by snorting disdain, elitist high-minded mocking and pedantic petty corrections.
  3. 3. Nostradamus
  4. 4. ‟The Wii will fail‟ – Ben Cousins, E3 2006
  5. 5. FAIL ‟The Wii will fail‟ – Ben Cousins, E3 2006
  6. 6. ”Future of games is :- • User Created Content • Data in the cloud, not local • Simple interfaces • Mass market content • Social Networking • Hyperlinks • Low system specs • Persistence, levelling” – Ben Cousins, Nordic Game 2007
  7. 7. ”Future of games is :- • User Created Content • Data in the cloud, not local • Simple interfaces • Mass market content • Social Networking • Hyperlinks • Low system specs • Persistence, levelling” – Ben Cousins, Nordic Game 2007
  8. 8. „The Innovators Dilemma‟, Clayton M. Christensen
  9. 9. The Automobile and the Supermarket
  10. 10. Piggly Wiggly (est. 1916)
  11. 11. Horatio Nelson Jackson
  12. 12. „New and Improved‟ – Richard S. Tedlow
  13. 13. 1919 From the Smithsonian Collection
  14. 14. 1920 From the Smithsonian Collection
  15. 15. 1947 From the Smithsonian Collection
  16. 16. King Kullen (est. 1930)
  17. 17. „New and Improved‟ – Richard S. Tedlow
  18. 18. • The status quo was a high-quality but costly and inconvenient experience • A new technology appeared and grew exponentially • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience • Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice and easy access to products • Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high quality expectations that would keep them paying the high prices • The new business model grew exponentially and took over
  19. 19. The Internet and the Videogame Tim Berners-Lee‟s first ever WWW server at CERN
  20. 20. Zzap 64 covers
  21. 21. • The status quo was a high-quality but costly and inconvenient experience • A new technology appeared and grew exponentially • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience • Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice and easy access to products • Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high quality expectations that would keep them paying the high prices • The new business model grew exponentially and took over
  22. 22. • The status quo was a high-quality but costly and inconvenient experience
  23. 23. • A new technology appeared and grew exponentially
  24. 24. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Travian Halo Wars Metin 2 Assassin's Creed 2 Combat Modern Arms Warfare 2
  25. 25. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Online Consumer Lower quality distribution price trends expectations cost falling to zero
  26. 26. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Quality less Infinite shelf Less need to important to space/time ‘be noticed’ differentiate
  27. 27. • This technology enabled a new lower quality, higher convenience, cheaper consumer experience Entry price Attention Higher zero span shorter convenience
  28. 28. 120 100 80 Metacritic 60 40 20 0 Sales – Week 1+2
  29. 29. Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
  30. 30. Accessibility Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
  31. 31. New items, Accessibility payment methods Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
  32. 32. New items, Accessibility payment methods Quality Battlefield Heroes Gross Sales Graph
  33. 33. • Expert advice was less vital because of wide choice and easy access to products
  34. 34. • Incumbent businesses assumed that customers had high quality expectations that would keep them paying the high prices "Social games, social network integration, mobile and portable games, a few you're hearing a lot about today, they're interesting and present brand development and marketing opportunities,” “[But] they remain characterized by unproven business models, a lot of clutter, and relatively low barriers to entry,”
  35. 35. • The new business model grew exponentially and took over
  36. 36. Firefox Elite vs Paradroid Gauntlet Forbidden Forest Operation Wolf
  37. 37. Arcade Home Outrun Gauntlet Ghouls and Ghosts
  38. 38. Arcade Home Commodore 64 Space Harrier Outrun Nintendo NES
  39. 39. House of the Dead £0.50 = 10 minutes Cost per hour = £3 Tomb Raider £40 = 25 hours Cost per hour = £1.60
  40. 40. PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue $6 billion $13.5 billion
  41. 41. PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue $6 billion $13.5 billion Console software, hardware Portable software, hardware PC software
  42. 42. PlayMeter 2006 figures NPD 2006 figures NA Industry total revenue NA Industry total revenue $6 billion $13.5 billion Air Hockey Console software, hardware Bulk Vending Portable software, hardware Cigarette Vending PC software Countertops/Touch Screens Cranes 8-Line Games Electronic Darts Foosball Full Line Vending General Business Jukeboxes Kiddie Rides Pinballs Pool Tables Redemption/Novelty Rotaries Shuffleboards Video Games Video Poker
  43. 43. Further reading The Innovator‟s Dilemma - Clayton M. Christensen Free – Chris Anderson Trade-Off – Kevin Maney bcousins@ea.com

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