GLO
BAL
WARM

ING
Climate changes
Climate changes
18,000 years ago

Present

Glacier ice
Sea ice
Florida’s coast during the LGM

Climate change has effects
18,000 years ago
Warming

Fluctuate	
  with	
  climate:
• Temperature	
  (pa+erns)
• Ice	
  cover
• Sea	
  level
• Precipita7on	
  (pa+erns...
Essen1al	
  Principles
of	
  Climate	
  Science
1.	
  The	
  Sun	
  is	
  the	
  primary	
  
source	
  of	
  energy	
  for	
  Earth’s	
  
climate	
  system
Naturally,	
  heat-­‐trapping	
  gases	
  in	
  
the	
  atmosphere	
  keep	
  the	
  
Earth’s	
  surface	
  warm

Human	
 ...
2.	
  Climate	
  is	
  regulated	
  by
complex	
  interac1ons
among	
  various	
  systems
Humans
46
47
3.	
  Life	
  on	
  Earth	
  depends	
  
on,	
  is	
  affected	
  by,	
  and	
  
affects	
  climate
4.	
  Climate	
  varies	
  
over	
  space	
  and	
  1me	
  
through	
  both	
  
natural	
  and	
  human	
  
processes

Mui...
5.	
  Our	
  understanding	
  of	
  
the	
  climate	
  system	
  is	
  
improved	
  through	
  
observa1ons,	
  theore1cal...
6.	
  Human	
  ac1vi1es	
  
are	
  impac1ng	
  the	
  
climate	
  system
7.	
  Climate	
  change	
  
will	
  have	
  
consequences	
  on	
  
the	
  Earth	
  system	
  
and	
  human	
  life
1824:

Jean-­‐Bap1ste	
  Fourier	
  discusses	
  greenhouse	
  effect	
  
1861:

John	
  Tyndall	
  Publishes	
  
that	
  CO2	
  and	
  H2O	
  are	
  
greenhouse	
  gasses
1896:

Svante	
  Arrhenius	
  proposed	
  anthropogenic	
  
greenhouse	
  effect;	
  burning	
  fossil	
  fuels	
  will	
 ...
1938:

G.S.	
  Callendar	
  argues	
  that	
  
anthropogenic	
  warming	
  is	
  underway
1956:

Gilbert	
  Plass	
  calculates	
  that	
  CO2	
  emissions	
  will	
  
have	
  a	
  significant	
  effect	
  on	
  Ea...
1957:

Roger	
  Revelle	
  warns	
  "large-­‐scale	
  geophysical	
  
experiment”;	
  he	
  and	
  David	
  Keeling	
  beg...
Atmospheric	
  CO2	
  (ppmv)
Present CO2
concentration
(391 ppmv)

!+#$
!*#$
!)#$
!(#$
!'#$
!&#$
!!#$
!%#$
!"#$
"+''$

"+(...
CO2 concentration
after 30 years of
unrestricted fossil fuel
burning (600 ppmv)

270
240
210
180

Temp.
Proxy

CO2 (ppmv)
...
1980s:

Warmest	
  decade	
  on	
  record
1990s:

Warmest	
  decade	
  in	
  1000	
  years
Global Instrumental Temperature Record
1

Global Temperature anomalies (°C)
5-year running mean

0.8

Global Temperature A...
Snow	
  in
the	
  desert?
Ice cover

Temperature
Ice cover

?
Temperature
Hysteresis
system that exhibits non-linear behavior
Arc1c	
  Sea	
  Ice	
  Mel1ng

1979
Arc1c	
  Sea	
  Ice	
  Mel1ng

2005
Arc1c	
  Sea	
  Ice	
  Mel1ng

2007
Arc1c	
  sea	
  ice	
  extent
Summer	
  Ice	
  Extent	
  	
  (106	
  km2)

'"
&#$"
&"
%#$"
%"
$#$"
$"
!#$"
!"
()&$"

()'$"...
Arc1c	
  Warming

Temperature Anomaly (°C)

2.0

1.0

0.0

All land area
Arctic (land north of 65°N)
-1.0

1960

1980

200...
Larsen	
  B,	
  Mar-­‐02
Larsen	
  B,	
  Mar-­‐02
Larsen	
  B,	
  Mar-­‐02
Larsen	
  B,	
  Mar-­‐02
Larsen	
  B,	
  Mar-­‐02
Larsen	
  B,	
  Mar-­‐02
Larsen	
  B,	
  Mar-­‐02
Sea-level rise
Sea-­‐level	
  rise
1. Thermal	
  expansion
2. Mel3ng	
  small	
  glaciers	
  
and	
  ice	
  caps
3. Freshening	
  of	
  w...
“

Those	
  of	
  us	
  who	
  live	
  
on	
  small	
  specks	
  of	
  
land	
  .	
  .	
  .	
  have	
  not	
  
agreed	
  t...
McCarty	
  Glacier,	
  Alaska

2004

1909
Rhone	
  1900
Rhone	
  2008
Kilimanjaro

1993

2000
Qori	
  Kalis

1978

2002
Patagonia

1928

2004
225’
25’

250’
Antarctic Warming (1957-2006)
R.	
  Huff,	
  J.	
  Box,	
  S.	
  Starkweather,	
  T.	
  Albert
Total	
  melt	
  area

Source:	
  Passive	
  Microwave	
  Satellite	
  Melt	
  Record
2007 Melt-day anomaly
Microwave data from SSMI reveals
more melting days in 2007 than
during the period 1988–2006
Credit: ...
Mass change on Greenland
200
Unfiltered data
Seasonally filtered data

0

Mass Change [Gt]

-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
...
June	
  14,	
  2001
June	
  13,	
  2002
June	
  17,	
  2003
That’s	
  about	
  
600,000	
  lbs	
  per	
  
person	
  on	
  Earth!

Since	
  2003:

More	
  than	
  2	
  trillion	
  ton...
Sea-­‐level	
  rise
Sea-­‐level	
  rise
Sea-­‐level	
  rise
of	
  1m	
  can	
  increase	
  the
	
  change	
  in	
  mean	
  sea	
  level	
  
A
ore	
  than	
  1000	
  1mes.
y	
  of	
  ...
Coastal	
  
popula1on
25’	
  rise	
  in	
  sea	
  level
250’	
  rise	
  in	
  sea	
  level
Manhaian
Manhaian	
  +26’
Manhaian	
  +26’
Consequences
10
Data (CDIAC)

9
8
7

Model Scenarios

Fossil Fuel Emissions (Gigatonnes C / yr)

Depends	
  on	
  our	
  emissions
A1B
...
Global	
  average	
  temperatures
will	
  rise	
  1-­‐6°C	
  by	
  2100
Increased	
  diseases,	
  
both	
  air-­‐borne	
  (e.g.	
  
asthma)	
  and	
  insect-­‐
borne	
  (e.g.	
  malaria)
Over	
  1,000,000	
  species	
  face	
  ex1nc1on
More	
  extreme	
  
weather:

Droughts	
  and	
  floods,	
  
frosts	
  and	
  heat-­‐waves,	
  
and	
  severe	
  storms
Severe	
  water	
  shortages,	
  
especially	
  where	
  supply	
  
depends	
  on	
  glaciers
Wide-­‐spread	
  hunger	
  
due	
  to	
  drought	
  and	
  
deser1fica1on
Numbers	
  of	
  CATEGORY	
  4	
  AND	
  5	
  
storms	
  by	
  ocean	
  basin
Water	
  temperature	
  and	
  storms	
  severity
Atlantic Potential Destructive intensity (PDI)

0.4
Atlantic Storm Inten...
Idealized	
  hurricane	
  simula1ons

(9	
  GCMs,	
  3	
  basins,	
  4	
  parameteriza1ons,	
  6-­‐member	
  ensembles)
16...
50%
Hurricanes are now 50% STRONGER and LONGER lasting
than 30 years ago
Coastal	
  flooding	
  and	
  
storm	
  surges
Environmental
Refugees
Millions of people

150 (projected)

50 (projected)

25

1995

2010
Source: IPCC (2007)

2050
OTHER	
  HAZARDS
Glacial	
  quakes
Glacier	
  out-­‐burst	
  floods
What	
  can	
  we	
  do?
Plant	
  trees!
Reduce	
  consumpDon
Shop	
  smart
AlternaDve	
  energy
Biodiesel

Cleaner
Renewable
Reduced	
  emissions
Grown	
  on	
  US	
  farms
Reduce	
  
dependence	
  on	
  
foreign	
  oi...
Be	
  informed
Unplug
ncy
cie
e	
  effi
rov
Imp
Don’t	
  buy	
  ocean-­‐front	
  
property
T
R
A
M
S
Form	
  PACs
Don’t	
  remain	
  happy	
  in	
  ignorance
todda@me.com
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
Global warming
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Global warming

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Global warming

  1. 1. GLO BAL WARM ING
  2. 2. Climate changes
  3. 3. Climate changes 18,000 years ago Present Glacier ice Sea ice
  4. 4. Florida’s coast during the LGM Climate change has effects 18,000 years ago
  5. 5. Warming Fluctuate  with  climate: • Temperature  (pa+erns) • Ice  cover • Sea  level • Precipita7on  (pa+erns) • Vegeta7on  cover
  6. 6. Essen1al  Principles of  Climate  Science
  7. 7. 1.  The  Sun  is  the  primary   source  of  energy  for  Earth’s   climate  system
  8. 8. Naturally,  heat-­‐trapping  gases  in   the  atmosphere  keep  the   Earth’s  surface  warm Human  ac1vi1es  are  increasing   the  concentra1ons  of  some  of   these  gases,  amplifying  the   natural  greenhouse  effect
  9. 9. 2.  Climate  is  regulated  by complex  interac1ons among  various  systems
  10. 10. Humans
  11. 11. 46
  12. 12. 47
  13. 13. 3.  Life  on  Earth  depends   on,  is  affected  by,  and   affects  climate
  14. 14. 4.  Climate  varies   over  space  and  1me   through  both   natural  and  human   processes Muir  glacier,  Alaska August  1941 Muir  glacier,  Alaska August  2004
  15. 15. 5.  Our  understanding  of   the  climate  system  is   improved  through   observa1ons,  theore1cal   studies,  and  modeling
  16. 16. 6.  Human  ac1vi1es   are  impac1ng  the   climate  system
  17. 17. 7.  Climate  change   will  have   consequences  on   the  Earth  system   and  human  life
  18. 18. 1824: Jean-­‐Bap1ste  Fourier  discusses  greenhouse  effect  
  19. 19. 1861: John  Tyndall  Publishes   that  CO2  and  H2O  are   greenhouse  gasses
  20. 20. 1896: Svante  Arrhenius  proposed  anthropogenic   greenhouse  effect;  burning  fossil  fuels  will   build-­‐up  CO2  and  lead  to  “desirable”  warming  
  21. 21. 1938: G.S.  Callendar  argues  that   anthropogenic  warming  is  underway
  22. 22. 1956: Gilbert  Plass  calculates  that  CO2  emissions  will   have  a  significant  effect  on  Earth’s  radia<on   balance,  3°F  by  end  of  century
  23. 23. 1957: Roger  Revelle  warns  "large-­‐scale  geophysical   experiment”;  he  and  David  Keeling  begin   monitoring  CO2
  24. 24. Atmospheric  CO2  (ppmv) Present CO2 concentration (391 ppmv) !+#$ !*#$ !)#$ !(#$ !'#$ !&#$ !!#$ !%#$ !"#$ "+''$ "+('$ "+)'$ "+*'$ "++'$ %##'$
  25. 25. CO2 concentration after 30 years of unrestricted fossil fuel burning (600 ppmv) 270 240 210 180 Temp. Proxy CO2 (ppmv) 300 350 Present CO2 concentration (391 ppmv) 800 600 400 200 Thousands of Years Before Present Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004 0
  26. 26. 1980s: Warmest  decade  on  record
  27. 27. 1990s: Warmest  decade  in  1000  years
  28. 28. Global Instrumental Temperature Record 1 Global Temperature anomalies (°C) 5-year running mean 0.8 Global Temperature Anomaly (ºC) 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0 -0.2 Smokin’ -0.4 Hottest decade in 1000 years -0.6 Hottest decade on record -0.8 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  29. 29. Snow  in the  desert?
  30. 30. Ice cover Temperature
  31. 31. Ice cover ? Temperature
  32. 32. Hysteresis system that exhibits non-linear behavior
  33. 33. Arc1c  Sea  Ice  Mel1ng 1979
  34. 34. Arc1c  Sea  Ice  Mel1ng 2005
  35. 35. Arc1c  Sea  Ice  Mel1ng 2007
  36. 36. Arc1c  sea  ice  extent Summer  Ice  Extent    (106  km2) '" &#$" &" %#$" %" $#$" $" !#$" !" ()&$" ()'$" ())$" *++$" Source:  Na7onal  Snow  and  Ice  Data  Center
  37. 37. Arc1c  Warming Temperature Anomaly (°C) 2.0 1.0 0.0 All land area Arctic (land north of 65°N) -1.0 1960 1980 2000
  38. 38. Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02
  39. 39. Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02
  40. 40. Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02
  41. 41. Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02
  42. 42. Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02
  43. 43. Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02
  44. 44. Larsen  B,  Mar-­‐02
  45. 45. Sea-level rise
  46. 46. Sea-­‐level  rise 1. Thermal  expansion 2. Mel3ng  small  glaciers   and  ice  caps 3. Freshening  of  water 4. Mel3ng  ice  sheets • • Greenland:  7.4  m  (25’) Antarc7ca:  74  m  (250’) • • West  Antarc7ca  (7  m) East  Antarc7ca  (67  m)
  47. 47. “ Those  of  us  who  live   on  small  specks  of   land  .  .  .  have  not   agreed  to  be  sacrificial   lambs  on  the  altar  of   success  of  industrial   civiliza1on. Ambassador  Lionel  Hurst of  An1gua  and  Barbuda June  28,  2002 Photo by rembcc
  48. 48. McCarty  Glacier,  Alaska 2004 1909
  49. 49. Rhone  1900
  50. 50. Rhone  2008
  51. 51. Kilimanjaro 1993 2000
  52. 52. Qori  Kalis 1978 2002
  53. 53. Patagonia 1928 2004
  54. 54. 225’ 25’ 250’
  55. 55. Antarctic Warming (1957-2006)
  56. 56. R.  Huff,  J.  Box,  S.  Starkweather,  T.  Albert
  57. 57. Total  melt  area Source:  Passive  Microwave  Satellite  Melt  Record
  58. 58. 2007 Melt-day anomaly Microwave data from SSMI reveals more melting days in 2007 than during the period 1988–2006 Credit: NASA/Earth Observatory
  59. 59. Mass change on Greenland 200 Unfiltered data Seasonally filtered data 0 Mass Change [Gt] -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 -1400 2007 Extreme Summer Melt -1600 -1800 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: GRACE measurements
  60. 60. June  14,  2001
  61. 61. June  13,  2002
  62. 62. June  17,  2003
  63. 63. That’s  about   600,000  lbs  per   person  on  Earth! Since  2003: More  than  2  trillion  tons  of  ice  in  Greenland,   Antarc1ca  and  Alaska  has  melted
  64. 64. Sea-­‐level  rise
  65. 65. Sea-­‐level  rise
  66. 66. Sea-­‐level  rise
  67. 67. of  1m  can  increase  the  change  in  mean  sea  level   A ore  than  1000  1mes. y  of  extreme  events  by  m frequenc
  68. 68. Coastal   popula1on
  69. 69. 25’  rise  in  sea  level
  70. 70. 250’  rise  in  sea  level
  71. 71. Manhaian
  72. 72. Manhaian  +26’
  73. 73. Manhaian  +26’
  74. 74. Consequences
  75. 75. 10 Data (CDIAC) 9 8 7 Model Scenarios Fossil Fuel Emissions (Gigatonnes C / yr) Depends  on  our  emissions A1B A1FI (Worst case?) A1T A2 B1 B2 6 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  76. 76. Global  average  temperatures will  rise  1-­‐6°C  by  2100
  77. 77. Increased  diseases,   both  air-­‐borne  (e.g.   asthma)  and  insect-­‐ borne  (e.g.  malaria)
  78. 78. Over  1,000,000  species  face  ex1nc1on
  79. 79. More  extreme   weather: Droughts  and  floods,   frosts  and  heat-­‐waves,   and  severe  storms
  80. 80. Severe  water  shortages,   especially  where  supply   depends  on  glaciers
  81. 81. Wide-­‐spread  hunger   due  to  drought  and   deser1fica1on
  82. 82. Numbers  of  CATEGORY  4  AND  5   storms  by  ocean  basin
  83. 83. Water  temperature  and  storms  severity Atlantic Potential Destructive intensity (PDI) 0.4 Atlantic Storm Intensity (PDI) 0.2 Aug.-Oct. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Emanuel, K. (2005), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 2005
  84. 84. Idealized  hurricane  simula1ons (9  GCMs,  3  basins,  4  parameteriza1ons,  6-­‐member  ensembles) 160 Category 5 Category 4 Category 3 140 Number of occurrences Control (mean = 934 mb) 120 High CO2 (mean = 924 mb) 100 80 60 40 20 0 880 900 920 940 Minimum central pressure (mb) Knutson, T. K., and R. E. Tuleya, 2004, Journal of Climate. 960
  85. 85. 50% Hurricanes are now 50% STRONGER and LONGER lasting than 30 years ago
  86. 86. Coastal  flooding  and   storm  surges
  87. 87. Environmental Refugees Millions of people 150 (projected) 50 (projected) 25 1995 2010 Source: IPCC (2007) 2050
  88. 88. OTHER  HAZARDS Glacial  quakes Glacier  out-­‐burst  floods
  89. 89. What  can  we  do?
  90. 90. Plant  trees!
  91. 91. Reduce  consumpDon
  92. 92. Shop  smart
  93. 93. AlternaDve  energy
  94. 94. Biodiesel Cleaner Renewable Reduced  emissions Grown  on  US  farms Reduce   dependence  on   foreign  oil Increases   mileage,   power,  and   engine  life
  95. 95. Be  informed
  96. 96. Unplug
  97. 97. ncy cie e  effi rov Imp
  98. 98. Don’t  buy  ocean-­‐front   property
  99. 99. T R A M S
  100. 100. Form  PACs
  101. 101. Don’t  remain  happy  in  ignorance
  102. 102. todda@me.com

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