Intensive learning session hosomi

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Intensive learning session hosomi

  1. 1. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy Intensive Learning Session   on “Transport Planning and Demand Forecasting” 2007.07.26 Akira Hosomi, Dr. Eng
  2. 2. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market EconomyTable of Contents 1. Transport Planning Procedure 2. Transport Surveys 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method 4. JICA STRADA for Demand Forecasting 5. Practice using UB road network
  3. 3. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy1. Transport Planning Procedure• Transport planning should be subject to facts scientifically examined, and it should be followed by a proper procedure in a logical way without any influence of politics.• The reasonable methodology for transport planning and demand forecasting system are needed for formulating better M/P.
  4. 4. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 1. Transport Planning Procedure • Typical procedure for transport planning Survey on People’s Survey on Traffic Traffic Behaviors Condition (Household Interview (Series of Traffic Survey) Surveys) Current Socio Economic Status Traffic Demand Current Forecasting Problems Urban Plan / SystemLand Use Plan Action (Short Term) Plan Future Socio Simulation of Forecasted Economic Future Traffic Future Status Situation Problems Mid-Long Term Plan
  5. 5. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) Household Interview Survey, person trip survey in other words, is conducted.. – to obtain a basic data for formulating comprehensive transport plan – to acquire information on the one-day travel characteristics of the residents in the study area as well as socio-economic aspects Socio-Economic Traffic Present Status Travel Situation (2007) (Population, Ownership Behaviors (Traffic volume, of Vehicles, etc) travel time, etc.) Future Socio-Economic Travel Traffic(2010, 2020 Status Behaviors Situation
  6. 6. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) – Trip Information – description of trips made in a day • Origin and Destination • Trip purpose • Travel time and cost • Transport mode choice To Work(AM 8:30) • Parking To Home (PM 6:00) Social etc. (PM 8:00) To Home (PM 10:00)
  7. 7. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) – Household information • Socio-economic profile – income, assets, etc.. • Vehicle ownership – Personal information of household member • Socio-economic profile – income, filed of employment, etc.. • State of mobility • Working/school conditions – working/school hours, location, etc.
  8. 8. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS – Sample size • 4,500 households (2% of total households of the city) • Head of each family and all members over 6 years old – Sampling Method • Random sampling survey method (2% of population from each khoroo) – Methods of Data Collection • The survey was carried out by university students, getting assistance from social workers and administrative officers of Khoroos, and section leaders of Khoroos/ apartment leaders in the filed.
  9. 9. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS (2,000 sample only) − Vehicle Ownership by Household All Apartment Ger Area 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% No vehicles 1 2 3 4 5>
  10. 10. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS (2,000 sample only) − Driver’s License All Apartment Ger Area 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Motorcycle only (A) Car and small truck (B) Big truck (C) Bus (D) All vehicles (E) None
  11. 11. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS (2,000 sample only) − Vehicle Ownership by Individuals 16% Ger Area 14% Apartment 12% All 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Car Truck Bicycle Microbus Motorcycle
  12. 12. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS (2,000 sample only) − Ownership of Public Transport Discount Card All Apartment Ger Area 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Yes No
  13. 13. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS − Alternative of Travel without Own Vehicle (2,000 sample only) All Apartment Ger Area 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Use of public transport Use household vehicle Walk Seldom going out Sent off/pick-up by others Others
  14. 14. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS (2,000 sample only) − Time Distribution of Trips 12% Departing time 10% Arriving time 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 time
  15. 15. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS − Time Distribution of Trips by Purpose (2,000 sample only) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 To Home To Work To School (to study) At work / Business To go shopping/Market To send / To pick up To get other living needs To eat (not at home) To get water Social/ Recreation/ Religious To have an exercise Other private purposes
  16. 16. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS − Average Travel Time by Time of the Day (2,000 sample only) 120 Average Travel Time(minutes) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 time
  17. 17. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS − Trip Purpose (2,000 sample only) To Home 1% 0% To Work 13% 2% 1% To School (to study) At work / Business 2% To go shopping/Market 2% 5% 43% To send / To pick up 2% To get other living needs To eat (not at home) 14% To get water 15% Social/ Recreation/ Religious To have an exercise Other private purposes
  18. 18. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS 1% − Mode of Travel 0% (2,000 sample only) 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Walking 3% Standard Bus (>25 pax) 4% Minibus (<=25 pax) Car - driver Taxi 7% Car - passenger (NOT taxi) Trolley Bus Company Bus 44% Bicycle 17% Motorcycle - driver Rail Train School Bus Truck 22% Motorcycle – passenger Tourist Bus Air Others
  19. 19. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS 0% (2,000 sample only) − Mode of Travel 1% 0% (excluding Walking) 0%%0% 0% 0 0% Standard Bus (>25 pax) 1% Minibus (<=25 pax) 6% Car - driver Taxi 8% Car - passenger (NOT taxi) Trolley Bus Company Bus 40% 13% Bicycle Motorcycle - driver Rail Train School Bus Truck 31% Motorcycle – passenger Tourist Bus Air Others
  20. 20. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS 1% 0% (2,000 sample only) − Mode of Travel 0% Area) (Ger 1% 0% 0% 0% Walking 3% Standard Bus (>25 pax) 2% Minibus (<=25 pax) Car - driver 5% Taxi Car - passenger (NOT taxi) Trolley Bus Company Bus 22% 44% Bicycle Motorcycle - driver Rail Train School Bus Truck 22% Motorcycle – passenger Tourist Bus Air Others
  21. 21. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS 1% − Mode of Travel 0% 0% (Apartment) (2,000 sample only) 0% 0% 0% 0% Walking 4% Standard Bus (>25 pax) Minibus (<=25 pax) 7% Car - driver Taxi Car - passenger (NOT taxi) 11% Trolley Bus Company Bus 44% Bicycle 11% Motorcycle - driver Rail Train School Bus Truck 22% Motorcycle – passenger Tourist Bus Air Others
  22. 22. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS (2,000 sample only) − Average Travel Walking Bicycle Time by Mode of Motorcycle - driver Travel Motorcycle – passenger Car - driver Car - passenger (NOT taxi) Minibus (<=25 pax) Standard Bus (>25 pax) Trolley Bus Taxi Tourist Bus Company Bus School Bus Truck Rail Train Air Others 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Average Travel Time (minutes)
  23. 23. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS (2,000 sample only) − Reason for Modal Choice All Apartment Ger Area 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% No other choice Convenience Cost Travel time Comfort Safety
  24. 24. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS (2,000 sample only) − Evaluation on Trip Overall Safety Convenient Travel Time 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very bad Bad So-so Good Very good
  25. 25. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Household Interview Survey (HIS) in UBMPS (2,000 sample only) − Evaluation on Trip by Walking Mode – Overall – Bicycle Motorcycle - driver Motorcycle – passenger Car - driver Car - passenger (NOT taxi) Minibus (<=25 pax) Standard Bus (>25 pax) Trolley Bus Taxi Tourist Bus Company Bus School Bus Truck Rail Train Air Others 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very bad Bad So-so Good Very good
  26. 26. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Traffic Surveys Method - To understand the traffic behaviors of the residents who live in the outside of the study area Cordon Line Survey -Traffic volume count by directions - Origin and destination interview for drivers/passengers at stations -To get information for adjustment of OD matrix taken by HIS as well as to obtain the load factors for each mode of transport Screen Line Survey -Traffic Count by directions -No. of Passengers by ocular measurement Traffic Count -To get information for calibrating forecasting model Survey / Intersection -Traffic Count by directions Traffic Count Survey -To get information for calibrating forecasting mode Travel Speed Survey - Travel Speeds Measurement for certain routes(roads) by modes
  27. 27. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Traffic Surveys in UBMPS – Location of Cordon Line Survey CL-9 CL-1 CL-8 CL-2 CL-7 CL-3 CL-5 CL-4 CL-6 Cordon Line Survey TC and OD Interview were also conducted at Points • Railway Station (UB Central Station) (only roadside survey points) • Chinggis Khaan International Airport
  28. 28. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Traffic Surveys in UBMPS – Result of Cordon Line Survey No. Survey Station (Boundary) Time Traffic Volume Hours Vehicles CL-1 Ulaanbaatar - Darkhan 24 2,161 CL-2 Ulaanbaatar - Lun 24 1,138 CL-3 Ulaanbaatar - Altanbulag 16 77 CL-4 Ulaanbaatar - Dundgobi 16 46 CL-5 Ulaanbaatar - Zuunmod 16 1,190 CL-6 Ulaanbaatar-Choir 24 553 CL-7 Ulaanbaatar-Khentii 24 992 CL-8 Ulaanbaatar-Terelj 16 542 CL-9 Ulaanbaatar-Rashaant 16 102 CL-10 Railway Station (UB Central Station) 24 4,293 CL-11 Chinggis Khaan International Airport 24 3,808
  29. 29. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Traffic Surveys in UBMPS – Location of Screen Line Survey Screen Line Survey: 3-day Continuous TC at 10 Locations
  30. 30. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Traffic Surveys in UBMPS – Result of Screen Line Survey Unit: Veh./16 Hrs SL-1 5,834 SL-2 44,076 East-West SL-3 33,456 SL-4 48,635 SL-5 50,843 Sub-total 182,843 SL-6 20,238 SL-7 41,470 North-South SL-8 27,116 SL-9 20,824 SL-10 12,878 Sub-total 122,527 Total 305,370
  31. 31. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys Unit: Veh./16 Hrs• Traffic Surveys in UBMPS – Cross Section Traffic Count Survey TC-1 19,342 TC-2 3,559 TC-3 10,577 TC-4 16,999 TC-5 37,502 TC-6 20,964 TC-7 40,538 TC-8 54,495 TC-9 19,404 TC-10 18,758 TC-11 9,726 TC-12 27,110
  32. 32. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Traffic Surveys in UBMPS – Traffic Comparison between 1998 and 2007 N 9726 19404 37502 Dari Ekh Rd 19342 Khuvsgal Rd Trade Union Str 20964 Children Park 20824 Railway Crossing on East of Narantuul Market Rd to Sonsgolon Zaisan Str 16999 Chingis Ave 10577 20238 - Total Number of Vehicles per 16 hours
  33. 33. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Traffic Surveys in UBMPS – Traffic Comparison between 1998 and 2007 Dambadarjaa N 5834 44076 33456 Zuun Ail Selbe Brdg 48635 Brdg Near Sky Arslantai Brdg 12878 Dood Selbe Brdg 50843 Enkhtaivan Brdg Gurvaljin Brdg Olymp str Dund Gol Brdg 41470 27116 20238 20238 - Total Number of Vehicles per 16 hours
  34. 34. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 2. Transport Surveys• Traffic Surveys in UBMPS – Travel Speed Comparison between 1998 and 2007 Travel Speed Vehicle Type Route Direction 1998 2007 East 41.4 25.4 Peace Avenue West 42.4 25.7 Khuvsgalchid - East 30.3 21.3 Ikh Toiruu West 29 20.9 CAR South 40.9 19.1 Ikh Toiruu North 42.5 20.3 East 42.3 31.7 Narny Zam West 41.2 19.7 UBIS - East 35.7 21.4 Yarmag West 31.9 20.1 BUS UBIS - East 24.1 16.8 Chingeltei West 24.1 18
  35. 35. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• 4 STEPS METHOD Output Input STEP 1 Future Socio Generated and Trip Generation Economic Attracted Trips by and Attraction Framework Zone STEP 2 Interzonal Trip Distribution OD Table Impedance STEP 3 Vehicle OD Tables by Modal Split Ownership Modes STEP 4 Future Network Traffic Assignment Assigned Traffic Evaluation Performance Indicator
  36. 36. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• 4 STEPS METHOD Generation Trip Generation/Attraction How many trips will Attraction generate/attract at the zone? Trip Distribution How many trips will travel between zones? Modal Split Railway How many trips will be done by each mode? Traffic Assignment How many trips will use the Car Bus road/route?
  37. 37. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• What is OD table? OD table express the movements of people/commodities by using a zoning matrix -Need to convert all areas into ‘zone’ -Need to know the movements of people/commodities between any two zones
  38. 38. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• How to make OD table? Person Trip Survey Cordon Line Survey In-Out Out-In-Out Out-In In-In In-Out Study Area Study AreaScreen Line Survey In-Out Out-In-Out In-In Out-In Study Area
  39. 39. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Data Processing from Person Trip Survey (1)   Calculation of ‘Expansion Rate’ k Pi e k Expansion rate (for category k and zone i) ei = k k i si Pi k Population (for category k and zone i) sik Sampled number of households’ members (for category k and zone i) e.g. Population of Zone 018 male:11,046 female: 10,944 Sampled number of male:42 households’ members female: 38 Expansion male:263 rate female:288
  40. 40. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Data Processing from Person Trip Survey (2)   Expansion of Trip Information k Dij No. of trips D =d e k ij k k ij i from zone i to j by category k(i≠j) k d ij No. of observed trips by sampled from zone i to j by category k(i≠j) e.g. No. of observed male:30 Zone 018Zone 027 trips by sampled female: 23 Purpose: to work (/day) Mode: Motorcycle male: 7,890 No. of trips female: 6,624
  41. 41. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Data Processing from Person Trip Survey Purpose: to work DESTINATION Mode: Car INSIDE OUTSIDE 027 I N S 018 14,514 O I R D E I G I O N U T
  42. 42. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Data Processing from Cordon Line Survey (1)   Calculation of ‘Expansion Rate’ k T k em Expansion rate em = k m k (for category k and survey point m) s m T m k Traffic Volume (for category k and survey point m) k s m Sampled number of driver/passengers (OD interview) (for category k and survey point m) e.g. Traffic volume at Road 1 Car: 22,156 Sampled number of Car: 2,521 driver/passengers (OD) Expansion Car: 8.79 rate
  43. 43. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Data Processing from Cordon Line Survey (2)   Expansion of Trip Information k D No. of trips D =d k ij k k e m⋅ij m ij from zone i to j by category k at station m(i≠j) k d m⋅ij No. of observed trips by sampled from zone i to j by category k at station m(i≠j) e.g. No. of observed Zone 324Zone 027 15 trips by sampled Purpose: to work (/day) Mode: Car No. of trips 132
  44. 44. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Data Processing from Cordon Line Survey Purpose: to work DESTINATION Mode: Car INSIDE OUTSIDE 027 I N S O I R D E I G Out-In-Out I O N U 324 132 T
  45. 45. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Data Processing from Cordon Line Survey by Purpose DESTINATION by Mode INSIDE OUTSIDE I N S O I R D E I G I O N U T Data Adjustment by Data from Screen Line Survey
  46. 46. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Data Processing from Screen Line Survey (1)   Categorization of OD trip Categorizing into 4 groups Counted by Screen Line Survey
  47. 47. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Data Processing from Screen Line Survey (2)   Calculation of ‘Adjustment Rate’ ∑∑ D i j k ij ⋅p k a k Adjustment rate (for category k) a k = ∑T m m k pk Average number of passengers (for category k) e.g. Total OD categorized Car: 1,468,321 as Total Traffic volume Car: 1,543,231 categorized as Expansion Car: 0.95 rate for
  48. 48. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Data Processing from Screen Line Survey (3)   Adjustment of Number of Trips k ˆ D ij ˆk Dij Adjusted No. of trips D = k ij k from zone i to j by category k (i≠j) a e.g. No. of observed Zone 018Zone 027 trips by sampled 14,514 Purpose: to work (/day) Mode: Car Adjusted No. of trips 15,278
  49. 49. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Zoning System on UBMPS 120 Zones in 6 districts
  50. 50. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Traffic Assignment − Building network Zone j • Travel speed j • Link capacity Zone i • QV function i − Passenger trips are converted to vehicle trips • Average occupancy • PCU factor by mode i j − Vehicle trips are assigned on the network • Several assignment technique1
  51. 51. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Road Network on UBMPS
  52. 52. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Road Network on UBMPS
  53. 53. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Road Capacity Carriage-way Qmax / hour Qmax / day Urban/ No. of Service Service Service Service Service ServiceClass Rural Vmax Min Max Lanes Cross Section (max) Fixed per m Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 80 2 1,300 2,600 26,000 Urban 100 4 2,200 8,800 88,000 Car 100 6 2,200 13,200 132,000 Exclussive 70 2 1,000 2,000 20,000 Rural 80 4 1,760 7,000 70,000 80 6 1,760 10,600 106,000 30 <6m 2 3m 2,500 1,300 1,400 1,600 16,250 17,500 20,000 35 7m <12m 2+α 3.5+2.5m 2,500 250 1,300 1,400 1,600 16,250 17,500 20,000 Urban 40 13m <20m 4+α 3.5+3.5+2.0m 2,200 300 4,500 5,100 5,600 56,250 63,750 70,000 45 21m <28m 6 3.5+3.5+3.5+2.0 2,200 300 6,800 7,600 8,400 85,000 95,000 105,000 50 29m< 8 3.5+3.5+3.5+3.5+2.0 2,200 9,000 10,100 11,300 112,500 126,250 141,250 Primary 40 <6m 2 3m 2,500 1,700 1,900 2,300 17,000 19,000 23,000 45 7m <12m 2+α 3.5+2.5m 2,500 250 1,700 1,900 2,300 17,000 19,000 23,000 Rural 50 13m <20m 4+α 3.5+3.5+2.0m 2,200 300 5,900 6,700 7,900 59,000 67,000 79,000 55 21m <28m 6 3.5+3.5+3.5+2.0 2,200 300 8,900 10,100 11,900 89,000 101,000 119,000 60 29m< 8 3.5+3.5+3.5+3.5+2.0 2,200 11,900 13,500 15,800 119,000 135,000 158,000 30 <6m 2 3m 2,500 1,100 1,300 1,400 13,750 16,250 17,500 35 7m <12m 2+α 3.5+2.5m 2,500 200 1,100 1,300 1,400 13,750 16,250 17,500 Urban 40 13m <20m 4+α 3.5+3.5+2.0m 2,200 220 3,900 4,400 4,900 48,750 55,000 61,250 45 21m <28m 6 3.5+3.5+3.5+2.0 2,200 220 5,900 6,700 7,400 73,750 83,750 92,500 50 29m< 8 3.5+3.5+3.5+3.5+2.0 2,200 7,900 8,900 9,900 98,750 111,250 123,750 Secondary 40 <6m 2 3m 2,500 1,300 1,500 1,800 13,000 15,000 18,000 45 7m <12m 2+α 3.5+2.5m 2,500 200 1,300 1,500 1,800 13,000 15,000 18,000 Rural 50 13m <20m 4+α 3.5+3.5+2.0m 2,200 220 4,600 5,200 6,200 46,000 52,000 62,000 55 21m <28m 6 3.5+3.5+3.5+2.0 2,200 220 6,900 7,900 9,200 69,000 79,000 92,000 60 29m< 8 3.5+3.5+3.5+3.5+2.0 2,200 9,200 10,500 12,300 92,000 105,000 123,000 25 <6m 2 3m 2,500 1,100 1,200 1,400 13,750 15,000 17,500 Urban 30 7m <12m 2+α 3+2.5m 2,500 200 1,100 1,200 1,400 13,750 15,000 17,500 35 13m <20m 4+α 3.5+3.5+2.0m 2,200 200 3,800 4,300 4,800 47,500 53,750 60,000 Tertiary 35 <6m 2 3m 2,500 900 1,100 1,300 9,000 11,000 13,000 Rural 40 7m <12m 2+α 3.5+2.5m 2,500 200 900 1,100 1,300 9,000 11,000 13,000 45 13m <20m 4+α 3.5+3.5+2.0m 2,200 200 3,300 3,700 4,400 33,000 37,000 44,000
  54. 54. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Assignment Technique − Incremental Assignment • OD trips are divided n times and assigned on shortest route. Shortest route is searched at each time according to travel time calculated by QV function − Diversion Rate Assignment • Network includes toll road, two shortest routes w or w/o toll road are searched and diversion between those two are calculated − Equilibrium Assignment • Equilibrium situation on a network is calculated reflecting that road users select optimal travel route
  55. 55. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Assignment Technique QV Function Link Performance Function V: Travel Speed Q: Traffic Volume t: Travel Time C: Traffic Volume
  56. 56. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Assignment Technique − Incremental and equilibrium using QV function are not so different but theoretically, BPR function should be used for the equilibrium assignment − Both parameters for BPR function (USA parameter and Dutch parameter) have not been examined yet in the Mongolian situation and it is considered that Original parameters should be needed aside from these known parameters.
  57. 57. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Evaluation − Network Performance • Volume Capacity Ratio (V/C R) • Average Speed • Vehicle (PCU) – KM • Vehicle (PCU) - Hour − Economic Indices: Direct Impact • Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) • Travel Time Cost (TTC) Comparison of “With” case and “Without case” − Economic Indices: Indirect Impact • Loss by Accident / Injury and Death • Air Pollution / Noise
  58. 58. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• ( 配分結果)
  59. 59. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Modeling for Future Traffic Demand: Trip Generation/Attraction − Estimates of daily trip generation and attraction by traffic zone Generation Gi = a1 xi1 + a 2 xi2 + a 3 xi3 + c Population, No. of Workers, Students… Attraction Aj = a1 x1j + a 2 x 2 + a 3 x 3 + c j j − Trip generation/attraction by household group • Different tendency of modal choice by vehicle ownership can be reflected. • Target of potential demand in public transport will be clear.
  60. 60. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Modeling for Future Traffic Demand: Trip Distribution − Intra-zonal Model (Present Pattern) Tii = RiGi − Inter-zonal Model (Gravity Type) Gα Aβj i Tij = k γ d ij Comparison of Trip Distribution Comparison of Trip Length Distribution 300 2,500 250 2,000 No. of Trips (000) Estimated (000) 200 1,500 Observed 150 2002 Estimated 1,000 100 500 50 0 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Travel Distance (km) Existing (000)
  61. 61. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method• Modeling for Future Traffic Demand: Modal Choice − Disaggregated Logit Model exp(Vijrs ) Pijrs = rs ∑rs ∈Ω exp(Vij ) Tijr = PijrTij Travel Time, Travel Cost, Vehicle V rs ij = α1h + α 2 d + α 3tij + α 4 pij rs rs Ownership, etc. Modal Share by Travel Distance Modal Share by Travel Distance (Estimated) (Existing) 100% 100% 80% Others 80% Others Bus Bus 60% 60% Car Car Motorcycle Motorcycle 40% 40% Bicycle Bicycle 20% Walk 20% Walk 0% 0% < km km km m m m m m < m m m m km km km 3k 5k 7k 9k m .5 .5 .5 1k 3k 5k 7k 9k 1k .5 .5 .5 12 17 22 12 17 22 Observed (caseDistance (km) Travel of HCMC) Estimated (case of HCMC)
  62. 62. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy 3. Transport Demand Forecasting Method Survey on People’s Survey on Traffic Traffic Behaviors Condition (Household Interview (Series of Traffic Survey) Surveys) Current Socio Economic Status Traffic Demand Current Forecasting Problems Urban Plan / SystemLand Use Plan Action (Short Term) Plan Future Socio Simulation of Forecasted Economic Future Traffic Future Status Situation Problems Mid-Long Term Plan
  63. 63. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) 4. JICA STRADA for Demand Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy Forecasting• What is “JICA STRADA”? − JICA STRADA is a computer software developed by JICA for application in transport demand analysis and assignment. It is an abbreviation of “System for TRAffic Demand Analysis”. − This software has been adopted among the world cities such as… • Metro Manila (Philippines: 1999, 2002, 2005) • Hanoi (Vietnam: 2005) • Lima (Peru: 2004) • Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam: 2004) • Nairobi (Kenya: 2004) • Jakarta (Indonesia: 2003) • Cairo (Egypt: 2002) …etc.
  64. 64. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) 4. JICA STRADA for Demand Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy Forecasting• What is “JICA STRADA”? − It is composed of 17 sub-programs: • Trip Matrix Builder • Disaggregate Model • OD Calibrator • Matrix Manipulator • GIS Converter • Network Editor • Transit Line Editor • Incremental Assignment • User Equilibrium Assignment • Stochastic User Equilibrium Assignment (UEA) • Transit Assignment • Time of Day UEA • Combined Model Split and Assignment Model • LP Assignment • Highway Reporter • Intersection Analyzer • Evaluator
  65. 65. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS)4. JICA STRADA for Demand Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market EconomyForecasting OD table relatedSTEP 1 Trip Generation Matrix Manipulator OD Calibrator and Attraction Trip Matrix Builder Disaggregate ModelSTEP 2 Network related Trip Distribution Network Editor Transit Line Editor GIS ConverterSTEP 3 Assignment related Modal Split Incremental Assignment Time of Day UEA User Equilibrium Assignment Stochastic UEASTEP 4 Transit Assignment Combined Assignment Traffic Assignment LP Assignment Evaluation related Evaluation Highway Reporter Evaluator Intersection Analyzer
  66. 66. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) 4. JICA STRADA for Demand Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy Forecasting• Matrix Manipulator − Handling OD matrices − Tables of zonal indices and GA trips − Graphic display from matrices
  67. 67. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) 4. JICA STRADA for Demand Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy Forecasting• Network Editor − Editing Network File − Specifying Parameters
  68. 68. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) 4. JICA STRADA for Demand Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy Forecasting• Incremental Assignment − Traffic Demand Assignment by Incremental Approach
  69. 69. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) 4. JICA STRADA for Demand Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy Forecasting• Highway Reporter − Showing link assignment results − Calculation of Evaluation Indices − Showing some other information such as.. • Interzonal Impedance • Directional Flow at Intersection • Route Information • Link OD Details • Transit Assignment Result
  70. 70. The Study on City Master Plan and Urban Development Program of Ulaanbaatar City (UBMPS) Intensive Learning Session on Urban Planning under Market Economy5. Practice using UB road network(1)Consider the necessary projects in 2010 and 2020 respectively based on the result of traffic assignment.(2)Make an evaluation report of the projects which you proposed at (1).

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