What is TRANZFORJoint funded:IRSES Madam Curie Action Framework 7; MoRST, DIISR, AASSupported by INRA, Scion, ISA, CSIRO, ...
Forests and climate change  • WP 1 - Genomics and tree breeding strategies  • WP 2 - Forest Models  • WP 3 - Environmental...
Australian climate change adaptation for forestry: currentactivities and future needs  Michael Battaglia
Australia is dry and getting drier         …with consequences for our forests1950 - 2008                  1970 - 2008
With drying comes fire riskBy 2050, the percent change in the number of days with Very High or Extreme fire weather are:• ...
Regional forest carbon stocks and fire     impacts: a shift?                           Long-term decrease in carbon stock ...
Forest fires and water supplyWildfires in 1939 have decreased stream flows to Melbourne by about 300GL per year (40%) due ...
NOWPinkard and Kriticos pers. comm                                  2070
Climate-driven tree mortality in Australian plantations     On the increase – in Australia and elsewhere         See Allen...
No mortality                                     Assuming mortalityRelative to 1980 growth           Relative to 1980 grow...
Biodiversity                            Distribution of species with mean annualFrequency distribution of   temperature ra...
Australian biome distribution at Last Glacial Maximum, present, and 2100(600ppm CO2 scenario) using BIOME 4.0.(Steffen et ...
a)                                                               b)         c)                                            ...
National response .. some examples• COAG National climate change action plan   • Climate change and forest action plan   •...
Framework for what we do (in productionforestry research)• Better, more useful vulnerability assessments    – not climate-...
Activities – again a sample (related to                                          production and carbon forestry)          ...
Domain of government investmentIndustry focus after NCCARF review          Pinkard et al. 2010
TRANZFOR: where we have been     •    WP 1 - Genomics and tree breeding strategies S,I •     Virtual gene project (Wu-Cull...
TRANZFOR: future missions    •   Forest Mortality    •   Full carbon cycle /soils    •   GxExM for carbon forestry    •   ...
Battaglia aust adaptation needs
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Battaglia aust adaptation needs

  1. 1. What is TRANZFORJoint funded:IRSES Madam Curie Action Framework 7; MoRST, DIISR, AASSupported by INRA, Scion, ISA, CSIRO, UKFR
  2. 2. Forests and climate change • WP 1 - Genomics and tree breeding strategies • WP 2 - Forest Models • WP 3 - Environmental services • WP 4 - Risk assessment • WP 5 - Bioenergy
  3. 3. Australian climate change adaptation for forestry: currentactivities and future needs Michael Battaglia
  4. 4. Australia is dry and getting drier …with consequences for our forests1950 - 2008 1970 - 2008
  5. 5. With drying comes fire riskBy 2050, the percent change in the number of days with Very High or Extreme fire weather are:• Number of ‘Very High’ fire danger days: +20-100%• Number of ‘Extreme’ fire danger days: +100-300% Lucas et al., 2007
  6. 6. Regional forest carbon stocks and fire impacts: a shift? Long-term decrease in carbon stock (net emission of CO2)CarbonStock(Mt) ‘mature’ fire regrowth forest Time (years) After Polglase pers. comm
  7. 7. Forest fires and water supplyWildfires in 1939 have decreased stream flows to Melbourne by about 300GL per year (40%) due to increased forest water use in just 65,000 ha ofregenerating forest. 1400 1200 1000 500 mm x 65,000 ha Annual catchment = 325 GL runoff (mm) 800 600 400 95% confidence limits 200 2009 0 0 50 100 150 200 Kuczera, 1987 Forest age (yrs) After Polglase pers. comm
  8. 8. NOWPinkard and Kriticos pers. comm 2070
  9. 9. Climate-driven tree mortality in Australian plantations On the increase – in Australia and elsewhere See Allen et al (2010) For Ecol Manage 259: 660–684 for global review Australian plantations ‘ moderately vulnerable’ – IPCC Late summer E. globulus plantations in WAFrom McDowell et al.(2008)New Phytologist 178: 719–739 After White pers. comm
  10. 10. No mortality Assuming mortalityRelative to 1980 growth Relative to 1980 growth% change % change < -10 < -10 -9 - 0 -9 - 0 1 - 10 1 - 10 > 10 > 10 www.fwpa.com.au/Resources/RD/Reports
  11. 11. Biodiversity Distribution of species with mean annualFrequency distribution of temperature ranges < 1°Cmean annual T range for (Hughes et al. 1996)eucalypt species
  12. 12. Australian biome distribution at Last Glacial Maximum, present, and 2100(600ppm CO2 scenario) using BIOME 4.0.(Steffen et al. 2009 Australia’s biodiversity and climate change. Summary for policy makers 2009)
  13. 13. a) b) c) d)Carbon markets and land-use changeProfitability of reforestation of cleared landscapes for carbon sequestration, expressed as equalised annual equivalents (EAE), under acarbon price of $20/t of CO2-e and the baseline commodity price scenario. Carbon plantings are economically viable when EAE > 0. Thetree systems modelled are: a) Eucalyptus globulus; b) Eucalyptus cladocalyx and Eucalyptus camaldulensis blend; c) Eucalyptus kochii,and ; d) mixed environmental plantings. Crossman et al. 2010
  14. 14. National response .. some examples• COAG National climate change action plan • Climate change and forest action plan • Support research to address major knowledge gaps (FFICCRF, NCCARF)• Other national response • National Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2010-20 • National water initiative and complementary state legislation • Sustainable yields studies and MDBC irrigation changes • Black Saturday Royal Commission Recommendations
  15. 15. Framework for what we do (in productionforestry research)• Better, more useful vulnerability assessments – not climate-centric but decision-centric – but has to be based on understanding forest functioning as well as human systems• Identify and build adaptive capacity• Explore adaptation options and their different dimensions• Social science to better understand adaptation decisions (barriers, synergies)• Work with industry and policy partners to develop pathways to adoption Modified from pers. Comm. Howden
  16. 16. Activities – again a sample (related to production and carbon forestry) Reviews: •NNCARF forest vulnerability review •NAFI Adaptation to climate change in Australia’s plantation industry review Vulnerability assessments: •FWPA climate change and plantations impacts % -9 1- 0> 1 10 0 Re - lati ch ve an to < -1 ge 0 1 98 0g ro wth •BRS climate change and plantations •Water security, climate and land-use change– Lu Zhang &WfHC Functioning and climate change: •Hawkesbury + UWS Face: elevated CO2, temperature, nutrients,water •FFICCRF Forest mortality project •Genetic flows in fragmented landscapes •Wood properties •OzFlux, Forest/biosphere-atmosphere interactions Capacity building and carbon markets and biofuels: •FFICCRF carbon markets project •FASA sub-tropical and tropical germplasm / ALRTIG & ATSC •Sustainable biofuels project / Gen2 sustainable oil mallees
  17. 17. Domain of government investmentIndustry focus after NCCARF review Pinkard et al. 2010
  18. 18. TRANZFOR: where we have been • WP 1 - Genomics and tree breeding strategies S,I • Virtual gene project (Wu-Cullity) C • Altitudinal variation in water use Nothofagus (Bresson) • Genetic and environmental stability of the relationship between Water E Use Efficiency (WUE) and discrimination against Carbon 13 (Δ13C) (Douthe-Warren) • WP 2 - Forest Models C • Pinus pinaster (Fontes-Almeida)C,I • Silvopastoral models (Battaglia-Palma)C,I • Fast growing plantations and water (White-Cassella) • WP 3 - Environmental services • WP 4 - Risk assessmentS • Wind modelling (Gardiner-Finnigan) C • Post fire recovery / Fire Paradox(Gomes-Moirea-Catry • WP 5 - Bioenergy C • Harmonising sustainability frameworks (O’Connell-Tubby)
  19. 19. TRANZFOR: future missions • Forest Mortality • Full carbon cycle /soils • GxExM for carbon forestry • Integrate approaches policy / adoption - lessons • Native forest resilience? • Detection and monitoring of change? • Multi-criteria decision making/land use? • Landscape connectivity – biodiversity and gene flows • Biosecurity/Weeds • Urban forestry / periurban forestry? • Forest functioning and elevated CO2/ regulation of photosynthesis/models of physiology

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