Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Talent Management: What's The Evidence

Talent Management – What’s the Evidence?
With Rob Briner & Eric Barends
28th April 2016, 3:00PM-5:00PM, IMI Conference Centre, Dublin 16

In this session, Rob Briner, Prof. of Organisational Psychology, University of Bath and Eric Barends, MD, Centre for Evidence-Based Management, put talent management under the microscope. They challenge some of the traditional thinking behind talent management shaped almost 20 years ago by The War for Talent – including the idea that potential can readily be identified in complex roles and that the best organisations have the best people.

  • Be the first to comment

Talent Management: What's The Evidence

  1. 1. Talent Management What’s The Evidence? IMI Talent Forum, 28th April 2016, Dublin
  2. 2. 30 min Talent Management: What is it what does it do? 20 min What the problem and solution? What’s your evidence? 20 min An alternative model: EBP 15 min Case 30 min Discussion / questions Outline
  3. 3. Dangers of believing things that aren’t true  It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. (Mark Twain)  The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge. (Stephen Hawking)
  4. 4. Some examples What’s happened to average job tenure in the UK and US over the past 10 years?  Up?  Down?  Stayed the same?
  5. 5. Some examples: Job satisfaction What’s happened to job satisfaction in the US over the past 10 years?  Up?  Down?  Stayed same?
  6. 6. Some examples: VUCA Is the world moving ever faster – more VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity)?  Faster?  Slower?  Same?
  7. 7.  The idea that time is speeding up is clearly popular. It is also plausible. There is just one problem. It is very hard to prove that it is actually happening.  Hard evidence of a great acceleration is hard to come by. The Economist has considered a variety of measures by which the speed of business in America can be quantified. A few do show some acceleration. But a lot do not.
  8. 8. UK Patents
  9. 9. Some examples: Generational differences Are there generational differences in work attitudes?  Big differences?  Small differences?  No differences?
  10. 10. So what?  There are many taken-for-granted assumptions and ‘truths’ in HR that turn out to be wrong or at least overstated  It’s important to examine these assumptions because if they are wrong will lead to poor decisions  Possibly also in the case of Talent Management
  11. 11. 20 min Talent Management: What is it what does it do? 20 min What the problem and solution? What’s your evidence? 30 min An alternative model: EBP 20 min Case 30 min Discussion / questions Outline
  12. 12. All big consulting firms claim it’s important …
  13. 13. You use Talent Management: Right? But, What Is Talent Management? 0Discuss with your neighbour (1 min) Discussion
  14. 14. nice pictures ...
  15. 15. … and a plethora of models
  16. 16. Model 1
  17. 17. Model 2
  18. 18. Model 3
  19. 19. Model 4
  20. 20. Model 5
  21. 21. etc etc
  22. 22.  Version 1: More or less exactly the same as strategic HRM – it’s most things HR does  Version 2: One specific thing HR does (e.g., succession)  Version 3: Full-on, hardcore War for Talent – it’s talented individuals that determine organizational success – our focus now ‘Talent Management’: 3 versions Ariss et al. Talent management: Current theories and future research directions. Journal of World Business, 2014, vol. 49, issue 2, pages 173-179
  23. 23. Talent Management: Where does it come from?
  24. 24. McKinsey (1997 paper / 2001 book)
  25. 25. “If you pick the right people and give them the opportunity to spread their wings and put compensation as a carrier behind it you don't have to manage them.” How is it assumed to work? Jack Welch (Straight from the gut)
  26. 26. McKinsey: case study ?
  27. 27. McKinsey: case study
  28. 28. War on Talent
  29. 29. Talent Management: The scientific literature
  30. 30. Discuss with your neighbour (1 min): What Is (a) Talent? 0
  31. 31. H E A L T H W E A L T H C A R E E R NOVEMBER 23 2015 Iulia Alina Cioca Lorenzo Gallì Milano A S S E S S M E N T O F H I G H - P O T E N T I A L R E S E A R C H R E S U L T S
  32. 32. © MERCER 2015 48 C O N C L U S I O N D E F I N I T I O N O F H I G H P O T E N T I A L Most definitions come from unreliable sources of evidence, and are not valid. Some examples: “The employee who leaves tracks in the sand” “An individual with something special hidden in their lives that, under the right conditions, could emerge and be leveraged for greater success.” ”
  33. 33. © MERCER 2015 49 R E S U L T S T H E C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S O F H I G H P O T E N T I A L S A number of 41 characteristics were mentioned in the literature Leadership skills (34%) Learning ability (26%) Motivation (24%) Competencies specific to the job or career path they will follow (23%) Risk taking (20%) General cognitive ability (18%) Ambition (to advance, to excel (18%) Adaptability (15%) Fit with the values of the organization (15%) Teamwork (13%) Results orientation (13%) Communication skills (11%) Action-oriented (11%) Curiosity (11%) Generic competencies (that allow performance in various roles (11%) Broad perspective on the whole business (11%) High performance record (11%) Interpersonal skills (10%) Trustworthiness (10%) Intercultural competencies (8%) Commitment (8%) Creativity (7%) Alternative, different and challenging way of thinking (7%) Seeks/uses feedback (7%) Is available for mobility (7%) Competencies specific to the organization as a whole (7%) Dealing with ambiguity (5%) Self-confidence (5%) Integrity (5%) Strategic thinking (3%) Using information (to take decisions, to convince, etc. (3%) Assertiveness (3%) Emotional intelligence (3%) Conscientiousness (3%) Proactivity (3%) High education level (3%) Customer orientation (3%) Analytical thinking (2%) Problem solving (2%) Resilience (2%) Tolerance (2%)
  34. 34. Some evidence-based insights … 1. Talent management is an ill-defined construct. It lacks a precise terminology as well as a reliable and valid approach regarding the measurement of its effect. And if you can’t measure it …
  35. 35. Some evidence-based insights … 2. The idea that talent (or potential) can be readily identified in relatively complex jobs is plain wrong. A senior executive may have a splendid track record but how much of their apparent success can be attributed to their abilities? A junior manager may score brilliantly on every appraisal thrown at them, but how good is the evidence that those scores predict future performance? It’s hard to define or assess talent.
  36. 36. 3. The idea that the best organisations have the best people just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.. Success depends on a whole range of factors, not least having good systems, processes and co-ordination. Having talented individuals may help a little bit in some roles, but other things are likely to be much more important. In other words, we over-rate our ‘stars’ Some evidence-based insights …
  37. 37. 4. There is even evidence that selecting and promoting people at random may work just as well Some evidence-based insights … Pluchino, A., Rapisarda, A. and Garofalo, C., “The Peter Principle Revisited: A Computational Study,”, Physica A, vol. 389, no. 3, February 2010, pp. 467-72. Haslam, S. A, C. McGarty, R. A. Eggins, B. E. Morrison, & K. J. Reynolds, “Inspecting the Emperor’s Clothes: Evidence that Randomly Selected Leaders can Enhance Group Performance”, Group Dynamics: Theory, Process and Research 2 (1998): 168-18
  38. 38. … and some critical questions 1. Why do we need to recruit the most talented person? Isn’t a good enough person, well, good enough? In almost all performance domains, having more ability only makes a difference to performance up to a point. So why spend time recruiting or developing the most talented people?
  39. 39. … and some critical questions 2. Given the fact that ‘talent’ is hard to measure / identify: have you considered the consequences of false positives and false negatives?
  40. 40. … and some critical questions 3. What might be the unintended negative sides-effects of identifying talent on those who are not identified as talent? All HR practices that have any effect may also have negative side-effect.
  41. 41. Great! …….now what?
  42. 42. 30 min Talent Management: What is it what does it do? 20 min What the problem and solution? What’s your evidence? 20 min An alternative model: EBP 20 min Case 30 min Discussion / questions Outline
  43. 43.  Returning to your own organization and what YOU mean by talent management  At some point your team made a decision about some problem that needed to be fixed and a TM solution that would fix it  We are going to consider (discussing in pairs) your evidence for  The problem(s) you identified which you TM activities are aiming to fix  The solutions (your TM activities) you chose to fix those problems Exercise: What’s your evidence?
  44. 44. What’s the evidence for the problem(s) you identified? (ask each other these questions)  What exactly was the problem? Be as specific and precise as possible (probe!)  What types of evidence or information did you have about the problem (internal data, external, professional judgement and experience, scientific, stakeholders)  How much evidence?  How trustworthy or reliable was that evidence?  Overall how confident were you that you identified a real, specific, important and pressing problem? Exercise: What’s your evidence?
  45. 45. What’s the evidence for the TM solution(s) you identified (ask each other these questions)  What exactly was the solution? Be as specific and precise as possible (probe!)  What types of evidence or information told you that the solution was likely to work (internal data, external, professional judgement and experience, scientific, stakeholders)  How much evidence?  How trustworthy or reliable was that evidence?  Overall how confident were you that you identified an effective and relevant solution? Exercise: What’s your evidence?
  46. 46. 30 min Talent Management: What is it what does it do? 20 min What the problem and solution? What’s your evidence? 20 min An alternative model: EBP 15 min Case 30 min Discussion / questions Outline
  47. 47. Evidence based management: What is it?
  48. 48. Evidence-based management Central Premise: Decisions should be based on the ‘best available evidence‘.
  49. 49. Evidence? information, facts or data supporting (or contradicting) a claim, assumption or hypothesis
  50. 50. Evidence? outcome of scientific research, organizational facts & figures, benchmarking, best practices, personal experience
  51. 51. All managers and leaders base their decisions on ‘evidence’
  52. 52. But…many managers pay little or no attention to the quality of the evidence they base their decisions on and use too few sources of evidence
  53. 53. Trust me, 20 years of management experience
  54. 54. Multiple sources of evidence problem solution Practitioners professional expertise Organization internal data Stakeholders values and concerns Scientific literature empirical studies Ask Acquire Appraise Aggregate Apply Assess
  55. 55. Evidence based practice: Where does it come from?
  56. 56. Evidence-Based Practice 1991 Medicine 1998 Education 2000 Social care, public policy Nursing, Criminal justice, Policing, Architecture, Conservation 2010 Management
  57. 57. Evidence-Based Practice
  58. 58. Evidence-Based Practice
  59. 59. Evidence-based … whatever = the use of evidence from multiple sources to increase the likelihood of a favourable outcome Focus on the decision making process Think in terms of probability
  60. 60. In general: managers don’t seem to like EBMgt
  61. 61.  Undermines formal authority (JFDI, HiPPO)  They feel it constrains freedom to make managerial decisions  Speed valued and rewarded more than accuracy  Managers not necessarily rewarded for doing what works (organizations rarely evaluate)  SEEM TO LOVE FADS & QUICK FIXES Why don’t managers like EBMgt?
  62. 62. 82
  63. 63. Evidence-Based Decision-Making Why do we need it?
  64. 64. Advice: lie babies down to sleep on their belly (unanimous support through to the 1990s) Example: medicine
  65. 65. Nr of cot deaths (Holland)
  66. 66. Collateralized Debt Obligations > AAA p = 0.12 (about 1 chance in 850) default in 5 years Example: finance
  67. 67. Forecasted Actual Forecasted and actual 5-year default rates for AAA-rated CDO tranches 0.12% 28%
  68. 68. Scared straight Example: policy / prevention
  69. 69. Example: HR management
  70. 70. 1. Incompetent people benefit more from feedback than highly competent people. 2. Task conflict improves work group performance while relational conflict harms it. 3. Encouraging employees to participate in decision making is more effective for improving organizational performance than setting performance goals. Likely or unlikely?
  71. 71.  959 (US) + 626 (Dutch) HR professionals  35 statements, based on an extensive body of evidence  true / false / uncertain HR Professionals' beliefs about effective human resource practices: correspondence between research and practice, (Rynes et al, 2002, Sanders et al 2008) Likely or unlikely?
  72. 72. Outcome: not better than random chance
  73. 73. Relying on only 1 source: bad idea! problem solution Practitioners professional expertise Organization internal data Stakeholders values and concerns Scientific literature empirical studies Ask Acquire Appraise Aggregate Apply Assess
  74. 74. Discuss with your neighbor (1 min) Over a 5 year period, why is an orthopedic surgeon's experience, as a rule, more trustworthy than an change manager’s experience? 60595857565453525150494847464544434241403938373635343332313029282726252423222120191817161514131211109876543210
  75. 75. Developing expertise 1. A sufficiently regular, predictable environment 2. Numerous opportunities to practice 3. Receive accurate (objective) feedback The management domain is not highly favorable to expertise!
  76. 76. Bounded rationality
  77. 77. How your brain works System 1  Fast  Intuitive, associative  heuristics & biases  emotional System 2  Lazy  Slow  Deliberate  Rational
  78. 78. System 1: short cuts
  79. 79. System 1 or system 2? 10 seconds
  80. 80. System 1 or system 2?  A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total.  The bat costs $1 more than the ball  How much does the ball cost? 0
  81. 81. System 1: necessary to survive 95%
  82. 82.  Pattern recognition  Overconfidence bias  Halo effect  False consensus effect  Group think  Self serving attribution bias  Sunk cost fallacy  Cognitive dissonance reduction System 1: cognitive errors  Confirmation bias  Authority bias  Small numbers fallacy  In-group bias  Recall bias  Anchoring bias  Availability bias
  83. 83.  Pattern recognition  Overconfidence bias  Halo effect  False consensus effect  Group think  Self serving attribution bias  Sunk cost fallacy  Cognitive dissonance reduction System 1: cognitive errors  Confirmation bias  Authority bias  Small numbers fallacy  In-group bias  Recall bias  Anchoring bias  Availability bias
  84. 84. “I’ve been studying judgment for 45 years, and I’m no better than when I started. I make extreme predictions. I’m over- confident. I fall for every one of the biases.”
  85. 85. Practitioners professional expertise Organization internal data Stakeholders values and concerns Scientific literature empirical studies Ask Acquire Appraise Aggregate Apply Assess Four sources of evidence (not only 1)
  86. 86. 30 min Talent Management: What is it what does it do? 20 min What the problem and solution? What’s your evidence? 20 min An alternative model: EBP 15 min Case 30 min Discussion / questions Outline
  87. 87. The performance of knowledge workers A Practical Example
  88. 88. Discuss with your neighbour 0 What are the strongest predictors of future performance?
  89. 89. Predictors (r & R2) 1. Work sample test .54 29% 2. General mental ability .51 26% 3. Structured interviews .51 26% 4. Peer ratings .49 24% 5. Job knowledge tests .48 23% 6. Job try out .44 19% 7. Integrity test .41 17%
  90. 90. Predictors (r & R2) 8. Employment interview .38 14% 9. Assessment centers .37 14% 10. Reference check .26 6% 11. Job experience .18 3% 12. Years of education .10 1% 13. Interests .10 1% 14. Age -.01 0%
  91. 91. Predictors (r & R2) GMA & work sample test .63 40% GMA & conscientiousness .60 36%
  92. 92. Knowledge workers Whether nurses, lawyers, engineers, managers, or staff members, nowadays most workers in organizations are highly dependent on information and communication technology and are involved in work that involves a high level of cognitive activity.
  93. 93. Discuss with your neighbour 0 “Which of the factors that are related to the productivity of knowledge workers are most widely studied and what is known of their effect?”
  94. 94. I Don’t Know (but I know how to find out) The 3 hardest words in management
  95. 95. Step 2: ACQUIRE Search for the best available scientific evidence
  96. 96.  ABI, BSP, PsycINFO  Scholarly journals, peer reviewed  1980 – 2013  English  performance, productivity, knowledge work* ACQUIRE
  97. 97. step 3: APPRAISE & AGGREGATE
  98. 98. Effect size?
  99. 99. Largest effect 1. Social cohesion .5 / .7 2. Perceived supervisory support .5 3. Information sharing / TM .5 4. Vision / goal clarity .5 5. Trust .3 / .6
  100. 100. step 3b: CROSS VALIDATE
  101. 101. Step 4: APPLY
  102. 102. Three examples social cohesion supervisory support information sharing
  103. 103. Social cohesion
  104. 104. Social cohesion … a shared liking or team attraction that includes bonds of friendship, caring, closeness, and enjoyment of each other’s company.
  105. 105. Social cohesion
  106. 106. Measuring social cohesion
  107. 107. Perceived supervisory support
  108. 108. …how employees feel the supervisor helps them in times of need, praises them for a job well done or recognizes them for extra effort. Perceived supervisory support
  109. 109. Perceived supervisory support
  110. 110. Measuring perc. sup. support
  111. 111. Information sharing
  112. 112. Information sharing? …refers to how teams pool and access their knowledge and expertise – which positively affects decision making and team processes. This has led to the idea of a team ‘Transactive Memory System’ (TMS), which can be thought of as a collective memory in a collective mind - enabling a team to think and act together
  113. 113. Information sharing
  114. 114. Measuring information sharing
  115. 115. The departments with the lowest performance scored under average on most factors Step 5: ASSESS
  116. 116. Reactions Who knew?
  117. 117. 30 min Talent Management: What is it what does it do? 20 min What the problem and solution? What’s your evidence? 20 min An alternative model: EBP 15 min Case 30 min Discussion / questions Outline
  118. 118. Postgraduate Course
  119. 119. Postgraduate Course
  120. 120. > 80 Fellows
  121. 121. CEBMa: what we do  Promote (seminars, papers, blogs, tweets)  Educate (universities & business schools)  Train & coach (companies > projects)  Support / REAs (companies)  Support / 2nd opinion (BS detector)

×