2011 CONVENIENCE RETAIL OUTLOOK                                                                      December 2010        ...
Composition of Retailer Respondents(Retailers completed online survey between 11/9/10 and 11/22/10)       Number of Stores...
2010 Dollar Sales Trends YTD - PCYA(Weighted Average*)                                 4.2%                               ...
2010 Dollar Sales Trends YTD - PCYA(Weighted Average* – Grouped by # of Stores Operated)                                  ...
2011 Competitive Threats – Level of Concern(Percent of Retailers*)             Other convenience stores offering fuel disc...
Potential Changes to Dispensed Beverages in 2011(Percent of Retailers*)         11%                                       ...
Potential Changes to Foodservice in 2011(Percent of Retailers*)                 9%                                        ...
Potential Changes to Packaged Merchandise in 2011(Percent of Retailers*)               8%                                 ...
Retailer Outlook for 2011(Percent of Retailers*)                     40%                                                  ...
Retailer Outlook for 2011 – “Your Company”(Percent of Retailers - Grouped by # of Stores Operated)                        ...
Retailer Outlook for 2011       Classification of Comments                                               Positive themes  ...
Retailer Outlook for Company’s Prospects in 2011(Percent of Retailers)                                                    ...
Retailer Outlook for Company’s Prospects in 2011(Percent of Retailers - Grouped by # of Stores Operated)                  ...
2011 Dollar Sales Targets – v. ‘10(Weighted Average*)                                 5.1%                                ...
2011 Dollar Sales Targets – v. ‘10(Percent of Retailers)                                     42%     36%                  ...
David BishopManaging Partner, Balvor LLCBiographyDavid is the managing partner of Balvor LLC, which is a sales and marketi...
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Balvor 2011 convenience retail outlook

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Balvor 2011 convenience retail outlook

  1. 1. 2011 CONVENIENCE RETAIL OUTLOOK December 2010 Summary of Survey Results 117 South Cook Street #339 Barrington, Illinois 60010 phone: 847.722.2732 fax: 847.382.1801 Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. davidbishop@balvor.com
  2. 2. Composition of Retailer Respondents(Retailers completed online survey between 11/9/10 and 11/22/10) Number of Stores Operated (Percent of Retailers) 500+ Stores, 4% 201 - 500 Stores, Top-Line Characteristics 11% # of retailers: 113 51 - 200 Stores, # of store represented: 10,510 10% 1-10 store operator share: 54% 1- 10 Stores, 54% 11 - 50 Stores, 21%Source: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 2
  3. 3. 2010 Dollar Sales Trends YTD - PCYA(Weighted Average*) 4.2% 2.8% Foodservice Merchandise* Based on store countSource: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 3
  4. 4. 2010 Dollar Sales Trends YTD - PCYA(Weighted Average* – Grouped by # of Stores Operated) 5.3% 5.1% 4.3% 3.7% 2.5% 2.3% 0.9% 1.0% 1- 10 11 - 50 51 - 200 201+ Foodservice Merchandise* Based on store countSource: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 4
  5. 5. 2011 Competitive Threats – Level of Concern(Percent of Retailers*) Other convenience stores offering fuel discounts 24% 56% Grocery stores partnering with specific convenience chains 27% 48% to offer fuel discounts Foodservice operators expanding into morning day-part 18% 44% Drug stores selling beer in more locations 21% 33% Drug stores offering commissary-driven fresh foods 9% 38% Very Concerned Somewhat Concerned* Ranked in descending order based on percent concerned.Source: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 5
  6. 6. Potential Changes to Dispensed Beverages in 2011(Percent of Retailers*) 11% No, Already Did in 10 25% 16% Somewhat Likely 38% Extremely Likely 25% 11% 23% 18% 7% 6% 11% 15% 7% 14% 12% 10% 9% 7%Raise retail prices on Upgrade hot Add iced coffee to Consider re- Adjust cup sizes Introduce a smaller hot dispensed dispensed beverage the offering branding hot offered with cold cup size in hot beverages equipment dispensed beverages dispensed beverages dispensed beveraes* Ranked in descending order based on percent likely to change in 2011.Source: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 6
  7. 7. Potential Changes to Foodservice in 2011(Percent of Retailers*) 9% No, Already Did in 10 Somewhat Likely Extremely Likely 32% 13% 12% 10% 13% 3% 15% 17% 10% 13% 9% 9% 7% 4% Expand range of Develop private-label Install a wholesaler, Change product Franchise with a products on roller grill offerings fresh-food express case suppliers branded foodservice concept* Ranked in descending order based on percent likely to change in 2011.Source: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 7
  8. 8. Potential Changes to Packaged Merchandise in 2011(Percent of Retailers*) 8% 6% No, Already Did in 10 37% 36% Somewhat Likely 5% Extremely Likely 31% 4% 22% 4% 4% 21% 14% 11% 8% 9% 7% 8% 5% Add new product Leverage multi- Use more Reduce SKU counts Introduce new Introduce private categories vendor displays manufacturer floor services label across shipper displays categories* Ranked in descending order based on percent likely to change in 2011.Source: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 8
  9. 9. Retailer Outlook for 2011(Percent of Retailers*) 40% 58% Somewhat Optimistic Extremely Optimistic 44% 25% 14% 3% Your Company Convenience Industry US Economy* Ranked in descending order based on percent optimistic.Source: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 9
  10. 10. Retailer Outlook for 2011 – “Your Company”(Percent of Retailers - Grouped by # of Stores Operated) 36% 36% 42% 41% 64% 64% 54% 29% 1- 10 11 - 50 51 - 200 201+ Extremely Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic* Based on store countSource: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 10
  11. 11. Retailer Outlook for 2011 Classification of Comments Positive themes (Percent of Retailers Responding) • Competitive positioning (delivering value in more ways today) • Customer service (focusing on better satisfying needs of customers) • Foodservice (becoming better at serving up a quality lineup of fresh products) Negative, • Economy (getting better – albeit slower than 30% expected) Negative themes Positive, • Competitive threats (discounting is helping 70% sales, but hurting profits) • Economy (creating an on-going drag on consumer spending) • Supply-side inflation (higher input costs – especially in foodservice)Source: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 11
  12. 12. Retailer Outlook for Company’s Prospects in 2011(Percent of Retailers) Somewhat Optimistic Extremely Optimistic 42% 55% 36% 19% Foodservice MerchandiseSource: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 12
  13. 13. Retailer Outlook for Company’s Prospects in 2011(Percent of Retailers - Grouped by # of Stores Operated) Foodservice In-Store Merchandise 64% 27% 64% 42% 29% 54% 49% 64% 51% 50% 46% 36% 29% 25% 22% 10% 1- 10 11 - 50 51 - 200 201+ 1 - 10 11 - 50 51 - 200 201+ Extremely Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Extremely Optimistic Somewhat OptimisticSource: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 13
  14. 14. 2011 Dollar Sales Targets – v. ‘10(Weighted Average*) 5.1% 4.2% Foodservice Merchandise* Based on store countSource: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 14
  15. 15. 2011 Dollar Sales Targets – v. ‘10(Percent of Retailers) 42% 36% 34% 30% 23% 20% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 1% Up more than 6% Up 3 to 5.9% Flat to Up 2.9% Flat to Down 2.9% Down 3 to 5.9% Down more than 6% Foodservice MerchandiseSource: Balvor 2011 Convenience Retail Outlook Survey, Balvor LLC, November 2010. Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 15
  16. 16. David BishopManaging Partner, Balvor LLCBiographyDavid is the managing partner of Balvor LLC, which is a sales and marketing P: 847.722.2732firm that provides consulting, sales support, research, and analytic services to davidbishop@balvor.comretailers, product suppliers, financial analyst and other organizations.Balvor’s services support various food channels, covering both foodservice andretail classes of trade. Public AccomplishmentsDavid has helped many leading retailers evaluate new retail concepts, enhance White Papersannual category planning processes, and develop new business support • Convenience Channel Opportunity: Insights for the Dairy Industry, Dairymethods related to assortment rationalization, space allocations, or branding Management Inc., 2010.strategies. • Are Retailers Doing Enough? Preventing Underage Access to Tobacco atHe helps product suppliers improve their competitive positioning, trade Retail, Center for Responsible Tobacco Retailing, Inc., 2009.programs, and category management capabilities by better understandingwhat retailers’ value while also benchmarking versus peer companies. • Accelerating Cigar Profits Through an Increased Strategic Focus, John Middleton Inc., 2008.David also has extensive experience with activity-based costing, channel sales • How to Succeed in Convenience Retail:A Practical Guide for Productstrategy, merchandising assessments, trade communication, and custom Suppliers, NACS, 2007.analytical support for both consumer packaged goods and foodserviceindustries. Industry ResearchPrior to founding Balvor in 2008, David spent 12 years at Willard Bishop in • SKU Rationalization Survey, NACS/Balvor, March 2010.various positions, including most recently as partner. David began his career • Motor Fuels Retailer Survey, Balvor/NACS, January 2010.with The Levy Restaurants in operations for new store concepts where hefocused on beverage and financial programs. • State of Foodservice, Convenience Store Decisions, 2008 - present. • Tobacco Retail Survey, Convenience Store News, 2008 – present. Current Industry Affiliations • Convention and Events Committee, NACS, 2007 – present • Supplier Advisory Board, Convenience Store Decisions, 2006 – present • NACSPAC Member, 2008 - present Copyright © 2010 Balvor LLC. All Rights Reserved. 16

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