How to calculate if a bet has value - how to calculate probability and value
Football (Soccer) Betting Tip - No Value No BetValue hunting is universal. It is applicable to both life and business. And itshould apply to football betting as well. Many punters fail to appreciate thesignificance of value betting. This is the most important BUT also the mostmisunderstood concept in football betting. Value is the real key to makingprofit in the long run.WHAT IS VALUESimply, value is found when you can obtain an object for less than what it isactually worth. The following illustration will clearly explain this.You are an antique enthusiast and you are browsing around an antiquesshop. You notice a nice old vase on offer for $100. You know you couldresell the vase for at least $120. This means there is VALUE in buying thevase. The key here is your KNOWLEDGE that the vase is actually worth$120.However, if you buy the vase with the intention to sell it but WITHOUTKNOWLEDGE how much you could sell the vase for, then this is not awise purchase and it is not a value buy.The same principle applies to football betting. In sports, the true value of theoutcome of a match is expressed by the probability of that outcomehappening. If you can get a price which is HIGHER than the one indicatedby the probability, then you have found value.So, the prices (or odds) offered by the bookmakers are related to theprobability of that outcome happening. Now, how do we determine whetherthe odds are of value?Be sure to claim a free copy of The Killer Strategy by clickinghttp://fooballbetz.blogspot.com/PRICES (OR ODDS)Fair prices (or odds) are set if the result is expected to be a 50/50 situation.
Lets take the example of the flipping of a coin. As there are two sides of thecoin, the chances of heads and tails are 50% each. The formula to calculatethe odds in such a 50/50 situation is 100 / 50 = 2. Therefore, odds of 2 arecalled FAIR ODDS.So, if we are betting on coin-throws, when the price offered is lower than 2,then it has no value because we will definitely lose. However, if the price ishigher than 2, say 2.10, it means the probability for the win is 5% higher(2.10/2.00). This is value.HOW TO CALCULATE IF A BET HAS VALUEBefore we know how to find value, we must first understand how tocalculate probability and value.Probability CalculationThe formula is:Probability = 1 / 0ddsSo, if an event is offered at 2.50, then it has a probability of1 / 2.5 = 40% chance of happening ACCORDING TO THEBOOKMAKER.If you estimate the true chance is greater than 40%, then you have foundvalue.Value CalculationThe formula is:Odds x Percentage / 100 > 1.0 (The figure must be greater than 1.0 to havevalue)In the above example, if you estimate the percentage to be 50%, the valuecalculation will be :2.50 x 50 / 100 = 1.25 (This is value as the figure is greater than 1.0)HOW TO FIND VALUE
The keys to value punting are:* How accurate you can estimate the winning percentage of the outcome.* Getting the best odds for that event.Calculating the winning chance is not an easy task. Finding value is 100%subjective. One may deem odds of 1.20 is value but another may disagree.Some punters feel that for odds of 1.20, the event must have a probabilitychance of at least 83% because they have to win five out of six such 1.20events to be in profit.So, finding value odds is very individualistic. Sometimes, odds of 1.50represents value. Sometimes, even 15.00 is not worth the shot.After researching the usual selection criteria, shortlist your betting targets.Then create your own estimations on the percentage of Home win, a draw orAway win. No strategy is set in stone. You have to try out various methodsand over time, you will realise how certain factors will influence theoutcome more than others.Time, experience and practice are essential in perfecting your methods.CONCLUSIONIf one of your value bet loses, it does not mean the bet does not have value.A punter must learn to accept that not all bets can be winning bets. Thedecisive factor is to find value in your picks. Of course, the more the numberof value bets, the higher the profit you can achieve.The only 101 football tips ebook available. An all-in ebook covering thefundamentals and intricacies about football betting.Be sure to claim a free copy of The Killer Strategy by clickinghttp://fooballbetz.blogspot.com/
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