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# Is Velocity a Worthwhile Predictor?

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### Is Velocity a Worthwhile Predictor?

1. 1. Is Velocity a Worthwhile Predictor? J. Calvin Hoot @bitNomad
2. 2. Show of Hands @bitNomad
3. 3. Show of Hands @bitNomad
4. 4. Answer Key Each cell stands for 1 business day Green == value add (do more of this) Red == waste (do less of this) @bitNomad
5. 5. Story of a Story @bitNomad
6. 6. Story of a Story @bitNomad
7. 7. Story of a Story @bitNomad
8. 8. Story of a Story @bitNomad
9. 9. Story of a Story @bitNomad
10. 10. What Are You Really Estimating? 12 / 48 = 25% of 9.5 weeks @bitNomad
11. 11. What Are You Really Estimating? 12 / 48 = 25% of 9.5 weeks 6 / 42 = 14% of 8.5 weeks @bitNomad
12. 12. What Are You Really Estimating? 12 / 48 = 25% of 9.5 weeks 6 / 42 = 14% of 8.5 weeks 17 / 53 = 32% of 10.5 weeks @bitNomad
13. 13. What Are You Really Estimating? 12 / 48 = 25% of 9.5 weeks 6 / 42 = 14% of 8.5 weeks 17 / 53 = 32% of 10.5 weeks No matter how complex, it’s 9.5 +/- 1 week @bitNomad
14. 14. What Are You Really Estimating? 12 / 48 = 25% of 9.5 weeks 6 / 42 = 14% of 8.5 weeks 17 / 53 = 32% of 10.5 weeks No matter how complex, it’s 9.5 +/- 1 week In practice, expect to see closer to 5% @bitNomad
15. 15. Velocity Only Counts If You Remove pre-tasks: small stories, JIT design @bitNomad
16. 16. Velocity Only Counts If You Remove pre-tasks: small stories, JIT design post-tasks: continuous deployment & testing @bitNomad
17. 17. Velocity Only Counts If You Remove pre-tasks: small stories, JIT design post-tasks: continuous deployment & testing wait time: flow, staff balance @bitNomad