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Is Velocity a Worthwhile Predictor?

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Is Velocity a Worthwhile Predictor?

  1. 1. Is Velocity a Worthwhile Predictor? J. Calvin Hoot @bitNomad
  2. 2. Show of Hands @bitNomad
  3. 3. Show of Hands @bitNomad
  4. 4. Answer Key Each cell stands for 1 business day Green == value add (do more of this) Red == waste (do less of this) @bitNomad
  5. 5. Story of a Story @bitNomad
  6. 6. Story of a Story @bitNomad
  7. 7. Story of a Story @bitNomad
  8. 8. Story of a Story @bitNomad
  9. 9. Story of a Story @bitNomad
  10. 10. What Are You Really Estimating? 12 / 48 = 25% of 9.5 weeks @bitNomad
  11. 11. What Are You Really Estimating? 12 / 48 = 25% of 9.5 weeks 6 / 42 = 14% of 8.5 weeks @bitNomad
  12. 12. What Are You Really Estimating? 12 / 48 = 25% of 9.5 weeks 6 / 42 = 14% of 8.5 weeks 17 / 53 = 32% of 10.5 weeks @bitNomad
  13. 13. What Are You Really Estimating? 12 / 48 = 25% of 9.5 weeks 6 / 42 = 14% of 8.5 weeks 17 / 53 = 32% of 10.5 weeks No matter how complex, it’s 9.5 +/- 1 week @bitNomad
  14. 14. What Are You Really Estimating? 12 / 48 = 25% of 9.5 weeks 6 / 42 = 14% of 8.5 weeks 17 / 53 = 32% of 10.5 weeks No matter how complex, it’s 9.5 +/- 1 week In practice, expect to see closer to 5% @bitNomad
  15. 15. Velocity Only Counts If You Remove pre-tasks: small stories, JIT design @bitNomad
  16. 16. Velocity Only Counts If You Remove pre-tasks: small stories, JIT design post-tasks: continuous deployment & testing @bitNomad
  17. 17. Velocity Only Counts If You Remove pre-tasks: small stories, JIT design post-tasks: continuous deployment & testing wait time: flow, staff balance @bitNomad
  18. 18. What to do instead? Measure your system for value and waste @bitNomad
  19. 19. What to do instead? Visualize your system to see workflow problems capacity = 6 capacity = 4 capacity = 6 throughput = 4 @bitNomad
  20. 20. What to do instead? Visualize the system to see workflow problems and use work limits to create flow and slack limit = 4 capacity = 4 capacity = 6 throughput = 4 @bitNomad
  21. 21. What to do with slack? @bitNomad
  22. 22. What to do with slack? @bitNomad
  23. 23. What to do with slack? @bitNomad
  24. 24. What to do with slack? @bitNomad
  25. 25. Thank You! 1. Measure your process. 2. Visualize your workflow. 3. Create flow and slack to improve your face. J. Calvin Hoot @bitNomad Lean Mindset SF meetup bitnomad.com image credits: planning poker, two hours, committed, traffic, learning, swarm, nothing, improve

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