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Gestion des risques /  Cindynique Image :  Source Rémi Bachelet  École Centrale de Lille Cité Scientifique  BP 48  F-59651...
Comment utiliser ce cours : <ul><li>Mettre les diapos en format plein écran en cliquant sur </li></ul><ul><li>Faire défile...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP,  </li></ul>
La maîtrise statistiques des processus <ul><li>MSP = Maîtrise Statistique des Procédés ou  SPC =  Statistical   Process  C...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, Capabilité,  </li></ul>
<ul><ul><li>Évaluation ex-ante de la capacité d’un processus à répondre à un cahier des charges,  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul>
L’AMDEC  <ul><li>AMDEC - Analyse des Modes de Défaillance, de leurs Effets et de leur Criticité   ( FMECA  -  Failure Mode...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Le risque est le ...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Le risque est le ...
Le modèle d'évaluation des actifs financiers <ul><ul><ul><ul><li>MEDAF  (modèle d'évaluation des actifs financiers) ( CAPM...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Le risque est le ...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Effet de portefeuille  (théorie de Markowitz ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Frontière effici...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Couverture ( hedging) </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Opération ou suite d'opérations ayant...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Actif seul  </li></ul>Perte / profit Cours
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Options  (put)  </li></ul>Perte / profit Cours Perte / profit Cours 
Stratégies avancées : combinaisons d’options K <ul><li>Anticipation de forte volatilité,   à la hausse ou à la baisse :  <...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Le risque est le ...
Typologie des risques sur les marchés financiers <ul><ul><li>Risques de marchés : liés aux variations des taux ou des cour...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Ingénierie :  Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Fin...
La mathématisation du risque <ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Temps pour accomplir une tâche : risque liés au biais dans l'estimation <...
<ul><li>Questions ? </li></ul>
<ul><li>Mes autres cours : </li></ul><ul><li>en vidéo (diapos + son des commentaires) : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fondamentaux...
Rémi BACHELET <ul><li>  Enseignant-chercheur,       Ecole Centrale de Lille  </li></ul><ul><li>Mon  CV est disponible ici ...
 
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Cours de Gestion des risques

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Cours d'introduction à la gestion des risques

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  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (2019 Update) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full doc Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download PDF EBOOK here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................................................... eBook is an electronic version of a traditional print book THIS can be read by using a personal computer or by using an eBook reader. (An eBook reader can be a software application for use on a computer such as Microsoft's free Reader application, or a book-sized computer THIS is used solely as a reading device such as Nuvomedia's Rocket eBook.) Users can purchase an eBook on diskette or CD, but the most popular method of getting an eBook is to purchase a downloadable file of the eBook (or other reading material) from a Web site (such as Barnes and Noble) to be read from the user's computer or reading device. Generally, an eBook can be downloaded in five minutes or less ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks .............................................................................................................................. Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .....BEST SELLER FOR EBOOK RECOMMEND............................................................. ......................................................................................................................... Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth,-- The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company,-- Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead,-- StrengthsFinder 2.0,-- Stillness Is the Key,-- She Said: Breaking the Sexual Harassment Story THIS Helped Ignite a Movement,-- Atomic Habits: An Easy &amp; Proven Way to Build Good Habits &amp; Break Bad Ones,-- Everything Is Figureoutable,-- What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence,-- Rich Dad Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money THIS the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!,-- The Total Money Makeover: Classic Edition: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness,-- Shut Up and Listen!: Hard Business Truths THIS Will Help You Succeed, ......................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................
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  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (2019 Update) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full doc Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download PDF EBOOK here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................................................... eBook is an electronic version of a traditional print book THIS can be read by using a personal computer or by using an eBook reader. (An eBook reader can be a software application for use on a computer such as Microsoft's free Reader application, or a book-sized computer THIS is used solely as a reading device such as Nuvomedia's Rocket eBook.) Users can purchase an eBook on diskette or CD, but the most popular method of getting an eBook is to purchase a downloadable file of the eBook (or other reading material) from a Web site (such as Barnes and Noble) to be read from the user's computer or reading device. Generally, an eBook can be downloaded in five minutes or less ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks .............................................................................................................................. Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .....BEST SELLER FOR EBOOK RECOMMEND............................................................. ......................................................................................................................... Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth,-- The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company,-- Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead,-- StrengthsFinder 2.0,-- Stillness Is the Key,-- She Said: Breaking the Sexual Harassment Story THIS Helped Ignite a Movement,-- Atomic Habits: An Easy &amp; Proven Way to Build Good Habits &amp; Break Bad Ones,-- Everything Is Figureoutable,-- What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence,-- Rich Dad Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money THIS the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!,-- The Total Money Makeover: Classic Edition: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness,-- Shut Up and Listen!: Hard Business Truths THIS Will Help You Succeed, ......................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................
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  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (2019 Update) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full doc Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download PDF EBOOK here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://soo.gd/irt2 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................................................... eBook is an electronic version of a traditional print book THIS can be read by using a personal computer or by using an eBook reader. (An eBook reader can be a software application for use on a computer such as Microsoft's free Reader application, or a book-sized computer THIS is used solely as a reading device such as Nuvomedia's Rocket eBook.) Users can purchase an eBook on diskette or CD, but the most popular method of getting an eBook is to purchase a downloadable file of the eBook (or other reading material) from a Web site (such as Barnes and Noble) to be read from the user's computer or reading device. Generally, an eBook can be downloaded in five minutes or less ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks .............................................................................................................................. Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .....BEST SELLER FOR EBOOK RECOMMEND............................................................. ......................................................................................................................... Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth,-- The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company,-- Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead,-- StrengthsFinder 2.0,-- Stillness Is the Key,-- She Said: Breaking the Sexual Harassment Story THIS Helped Ignite a Movement,-- Atomic Habits: An Easy &amp; Proven Way to Build Good Habits &amp; Break Bad Ones,-- Everything Is Figureoutable,-- What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence,-- Rich Dad Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money THIS the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!,-- The Total Money Makeover: Classic Edition: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness,-- Shut Up and Listen!: Hard Business Truths THIS Will Help You Succeed, ......................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................
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Cours de Gestion des risques

  1. 1. Gestion des risques / Cindynique Image : Source Rémi Bachelet École Centrale de Lille Cité Scientifique BP 48 F-59651 Villeneuve d’Ascq Cedex Cours distribué sous licence Creative Commons, selon les conditions suivantes : Source des images indiquées au-dessous ou en cliquant sur l’image Mise à jour du September 25, 2009 Ici : la version la plus récente de ce cours de gestion des risques .
  2. 2. Comment utiliser ce cours : <ul><li>Mettre les diapos en format plein écran en cliquant sur </li></ul><ul><li>Faire défiler l’animation en cliquant sur les diapositives </li></ul><ul><li>(attention : cliquer sur une image ou un lien ouvre la page web correspondante) </li></ul>
  3. 3. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, </li></ul>
  4. 4. La maîtrise statistiques des processus <ul><li>MSP = Maîtrise Statistique des Procédés ou SPC = Statistical Process Control </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Origine = cartes de contrôle des pièces fabriquées (moy, R=max-min) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>À partir de l'hypothèse d'une distribution &quot;loi normale« , la MSP permet d'identifier les déviations significatives pour anticiper les problèmes. </li></ul></ul></ul>Source 1 : stats et écarts type Source 2 : carte de contrôle Source 3 : signes indicateurs
  5. 5. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, Capabilité, </li></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><ul><li>Évaluation ex-ante de la capacité d’un processus à répondre à un cahier des charges, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Typiquement, « capacité des différentes machines existantes à fabriquer en grande série des pièces dans un intervalle de tolérance ». </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Permet une optimisation coût-performance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Dans l’automobile, on demande C p < 1.67 , C pk < 1.33 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>La Capabilité Source Formules Liens sur les images : Source 1 Source 2
  7. 7. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul>
  8. 8. L’AMDEC <ul><li>AMDEC - Analyse des Modes de Défaillance, de leurs Effets et de leur Criticité ( FMECA - Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis ) </li></ul>Image : Source Analyse fonctionnelle Criticité
  9. 9. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Le risque est le fondement des maths financières et prudentielles </li></ul>
  10. 10. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Le risque est le fondement des maths financières et prudentielles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Risque et écart-type (MEDAF) </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Le modèle d'évaluation des actifs financiers <ul><ul><ul><ul><li>MEDAF (modèle d'évaluation des actifs financiers) ( CAPM - capital asset pricing model ) => notion de « prime de risque » </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>Rendement sur longue période Risque (écart-type) monétaire obligataire Actions &quot;blue chips&quot; Actions &quot;nouvelle économie&quot;
  12. 12. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Le risque est le fondement des maths financières et prudentielles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Risque et écart-type (MEDAF) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Couverture ( hedging), effet de portefeuille (théorie de Markowitz ) </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Effet de portefeuille (théorie de Markowitz ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Frontière efficiente; </li></ul></ul>Image : Source
  14. 14. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Couverture ( hedging) </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Opération ou suite d'opérations ayant pour but de compenser, totalement ou partiellement, un risque de variation défavorable d'un élément d'actif </li></ul></ul></ul>
  15. 15. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Actif seul </li></ul>Perte / profit Cours
  16. 16. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Options (put) </li></ul>Perte / profit Cours Perte / profit Cours 
  17. 17. Stratégies avancées : combinaisons d’options K <ul><li>Anticipation de forte volatilité, à la hausse ou à la baisse : </li></ul><ul><li>=> on achète deux options de même prix d’exercice K </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Call: P1,K </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Put: P2 ,K </li></ul></ul><ul><li>On obtient un STRADDLE : </li></ul><ul><li>D’autres combinaisons existent : strangle , butterfly, condor, seagull </li></ul>Image : Source
  18. 18. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Le risque est le fondement des maths financières et prudentielles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Risque et écart-type (MEDAF) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Couverture ( hedging), effet de portefeuille (théorie de Markowicz ) et options (put, call) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Typologie des risques sur les marchés financiers </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. Typologie des risques sur les marchés financiers <ul><ul><li>Risques de marchés : liés aux variations des taux ou des cours des actifs risque de taux , risque de change </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risques de crédit : liés à la fiabilité d'une contrepartie , voire d'un pays entier . </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risques de liquidité liés au fonctionnement même des marchés et à la possibilité ou non de revendre un actif </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risques organisationnels liés à des défaillances possibles de l’organisation, qui peuvent être également déontologiques </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>+ Approche Value at risk </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. La mathématisation du risque <ul><li>Ingénierie : Théories de la fiabilité (MSP, capabilité, AMDEC) </li></ul><ul><li>Finance : Le risque est le fondement des maths financières et prudentielles </li></ul><ul><li>Psychologie : Biais statistique de la perception du risque </li></ul>
  21. 21. La mathématisation du risque <ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Temps pour accomplir une tâche : risque liés au biais dans l'estimation </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>= la plus grande fréquence = occupe le rang central (50%-50%) = estimation raisonnable ! mode médiane moyenne La queue de distribution est longue : «  leptokurtique  »
  22. 22. <ul><li>Questions ? </li></ul>
  23. 23. <ul><li>Mes autres cours : </li></ul><ul><li>en vidéo (diapos + son des commentaires) : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fondamentaux de la gestion de projet et Animation d’équipe-projet et motivation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>en diapositives animées : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fondamentaux de la gestion de projet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Les bases des outils d'organisation projet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Groupware et outils informatiques de gestion de projets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Introduction à l'analyse stratégique en management de projet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Comment animer un  Brainstorming et 4 topos de Méthodes de Résolution de Problèmes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cours d'analyse fonctionnelle </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Introduction à la gestion des risques </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Démarche de gestion des risques et plan de prévention </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sociologie des organisations , recueil et traitement de données , prévention du plagiat , marchés financiers , qualité , établir des cartes conceptuelles , utiliser Wikipédia et MediaWiki </li></ul><ul><li>Enfin, voici des cartes conceptuelles résumant certains des cours </li></ul>Pour en savoir plus :
  24. 24. Rémi BACHELET <ul><li>  Enseignant-chercheur,      Ecole Centrale de Lille </li></ul><ul><li>Mon CV est disponible ici . </li></ul>Mes principaux cours à Centrale Gestion de projet , sociologie des organisations , recueil, analyse et traitement de données , prévention du plagiat , module de marchés financiers , cours de qualité et méthodes de résolution de problèmes, établir des cartes conceptuelles , utiliser Wikipédia et CentraleWiki , formation au coaching pédagogique et à l'encadrement, référencement et SEO

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