Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

NCLR Economics of SB1070 Presentation


Published on

Keynote presentation used by AZEIR Executive Director Todd Landfried at the NCLR annual meeting on July 8, 2012.

Published in: News & Politics
  • Be the first to comment

NCLR Economics of SB1070 Presentation

  1. 1. SB1070 Doesn’t WorkThe Impacts of State-level Immigration LawsTodd LandfriedExecutive DirectorArizona Employers for Immigration Reform 1
  2. 2. “The greatest threat to democracyis having a public that thinks it isfully informed, but really isn’t verywell informed at all.” Linda Foley 2
  3. 3. Arizona v. United States “Arizona bears the brunt of the country’s illegal immigration problem. Its citizens feel themselves under siege by large numbers of illegal immigrants who invade their property, strain their social services and even place their lives in jeopardy.” Justice Scalia Dissenting OpinionSource: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 22 (2012) (Scalia, J. dissenting). 3
  4. 4. Arizona v. United States “...these aliens are reported to be responsible for a disproportionate share of serious crime.” “Accounts in the record suggest there is an ‘epidemic of crime, safety risks, serious property damage, and environmental problems’ associated with the influx of illegal migration across private land near the Mexican border.” Justice Kennedy Majority OpinionSource: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 6 (2012). 4
  5. 5. Arizona v. United States “The problems posed to the State by illegal immigration must not be underestimated.” Justice Kennedy Majority Opinion Unfortunately, they are being overestimated!Source: Arizona et al. v. United States, No. 11-182, 537 U.S. ___, 1, 6 (2012). 5
  6. 6. “A salient characteristic of thecurrent debate on U.S.immigration policy is the highratio of hot air to data.” Dr. Douglas Massey Co-director, Mexican Migration Project Princeton University 6
  7. 7. Economic Fallacies Claim Reality Difference Education Costs $810M $379M +214% Health Costs $400M $24M +1,600% Tax Payments $257M $2.84B -1,100% 7
  8. 8. Crime Fallacies Claim Reality Difference % in Federal Prison 35% 17.5% +200% % in AZ Prisons* 33% 13.2% +250% Hate Crime Not a problem +68% +6,800% Increase ‘07-’10 Identity Theft 100% 0.9% -99.1%* Includes green card and undocumented prisoners 8
  9. 9. Source: immigration topic, updated 7/06/12 9
  10. 10. PolitiFact Immigration Checks Pants On Mostly Mostly FALSE Half True TRUE Fire False True 19 56 33 41 31 23 9.4% 27.6% 16.3% 20.25 15.3% 11.3% Wrong 88.7% 11.3%Source: immigration topic, updated 7/06/12. N = 203 10
  11. 11. 9 out of 10Source: immigration topic, updated 7/06/12. N = 203 11
  12. 12. g 9 out on10 of W rSource: immigration topic, updated 7/06/12. N = 203 11
  13. 13. AZ FactCheck: Immigration Mostly Somewhat False FALSE Somewhat True Mostly True TRUE False 29 4 8 4 4 59.2% 8.2% 16.3% 8.2% 8.2% Wrong 91.8% 8.2%Source: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 7/08/12. N = 49 12
  14. 14. 9 out of 10Source: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49 13
  15. 15. g 9 out on10 of W rSource: Arizona Republic, AZ Fact Check immigration topic, updated 3/14/12. N = 49 13
  16. 16. How’s This Working Out? U.S. history is replete with examples of bad immigration law: Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, The Gentleman’s Agreement of 1907, The Immigration Act of 1924, and Bracero Program of 1942 Prior to SB 1070 “Attrition Through Enforcement” was tried: Cities: Farmer’s Branch, TX, Freemont, NE and Hazelton, PA Counties: Prince William County, VA States: Arizona and Oklahoma 14
  17. 17. A Local Record of Failure Prince William County, VA (2007) - $14.9M to train & enforce county officers, increase property tax rate by $0.15/$1,000; foreclosure rate 3X regional rate; business closures up 45% Farmer’s Branch, TX (2007) - $3.2M for lawyers, $5M in settlement fees, $623,000 in legal set-asides, increased vacancy rates, lower property values, business reputation damaged, divided community Hazelton, PA (2007) - $1M for lawyers, $2.4M in settlement fees, increased foreclosure and vacancy rates, businesses closed, divided communitySource: Dallas Morning News, April 9, 2010. Hazelton Standard Speaker, Nov. 7, 2010
  18. 18. A State Record of Failure Oklahoma Taxpayer & Citizen Protection Act (2007) - Oklahoma Bankers Association study found the loss of 90,000 unauthorized workers/families resulted in net Gross State Product loss of $1.9B Urban Institute found negligible impact on savings on public services from departure of the undocumented because by law they’re ineligible for those benefits in the first place Despite having examples of universal failure at every level of government, Arizona passed SB 1070 anywaySource: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of the Oklahoma Taxpayer and Citizen Protection Act of 2007
  19. 19. A Continued Record of Failure “Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act” - SB1070 (2010) $5M+ to train law enforcement $186M in near-term convention and related tourism losses $40.7M loss in state tax revenues $3M+ to defend SB1070 in court, losing on 3/4 of the challenges and it’s not overSource: CAP “Rising Tide or Shrinking Pie” 2011 and Arizona Republic June 21, 2012
  20. 20. SB1070 Economics Immigrant Pop. Gross State Tax Revenue Income Loss Job Loss Decline Product Loss Loss 15% $8.3B $5.3B 99,000 $636M 30% $14.4B $9.4B 172,000 $1.27B 50% $20B $15.7B 291,000 $2.11B 100% $48.8B $29.5B 581,000 $4.22BSource: "A Rising Tide or a Shrinking Pie," M. Fitz and R. Hinojosa, Immigration Policy Council, March, 2011. 18
  21. 21. Sound Good?✓Shrinking workforce✓Significant population loss✓Fewer consumers✓Business layoffs & closures✓Broad tax base decline✓Foreclosures up, values down✓Damage to business climate✓Loss of investment interest
  22. 22. They Did ItAnywayAlabamaIndianaGeorgiaSouth CarolinaUtah
  23. 23. Georgia’s HB 87 Ignoring previous failures, Gov. Deal signed it on May 12, 2011 Georgia felt the impact within days Farmers lost field workers during prime spring harvest season and the state’s Farm Bureau projected immediate losses at $330M Gov. Deal called for impact study 14 days AFTER the law was passed “Pilot” probationer employment program for agriculture failed miserably: needed 11,000 and 14 showed up and seven remained a week later
  24. 24. GA Governor: Use Prison LaborHow many support giving prison laborers this knife? 12”
  25. 25. Alabama’s HB 56 Ignoring previous failures, Gov. Bentley signed it on June 9, 2011 Alabama felt the impact within days Construction industry stalled as workers leave, slowing down rebuilding process following spring tornado storms Long-term growers of crops that are hand-picked are switching to crops that can be mechanized Recent study show community tax receipts are down so low in agricultural communities, they are considering cutting services
  26. 26. Quiz Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of... INSANITY
  27. 27. Spreading The Truth “What is more, the supposed benefits of S.B. 1070 are illusory and do not outweigh its burdens. Arizona claims it enacted S.B. 1070 to address the severe fiscal and economic effects of unauthorized immigrants—specifically, the rising costs of incarceration, education, and health care. But Arizona’s contentions lack empirical support. To the contrary, unauthorized immigrants provide a net benefit to state economies.” AZEIR Amicus BriefSource: Brief of Arizona Employers for Immigration Reform,. et. al. As Amici Curiae In Support of Respondent,No. 11-182, Supreme Ct. Of the US. 25 April 2012. 25
  28. 28. Facts + Engagement = Wins Building coalitions of business, faith, legal and community organizations can educate the public and defeat SB1070-style bills Kansas - SB1070 copycat bills DEFEATED TWICE Mississippi - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED Missouri - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED Rhode Island - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED Texas - 108 immigration bills DEFEATED West Virginia - SB1070 copycat bill DEFEATED
  29. 29. What You Must Do These laws have never worked anywhere - Tell people! Challenge every statement - 9 times out of 10 it’s wrong Hold public forums to discuss facts and present alternatives Challenge “rule of law” assumption that current laws are “good” Business, faith, legal, and community leaders must speak out together Start demanding state and federal candidates have solutions and demand specific timelines for action
  30. 30. Thank YouTodd LandfriedArizona Employers for Immigration ReformEmail: