Andy Yan
One Percent
Flood
Levels in
New York City
Land Use, Land Value, and
Demographic Implications
New York City
A History of the Land
Based upon August 2013 1% Flood FEMA Flood Elevations (Zone AE, AO, and
VE), this study combines spatial datasets from:
• ...
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City
Today
Total Land Mass:
304 Square Miles
New York City
100 Year Flood Plain Scenario
FEMA Base Flood Elevation
Total Affected Land Mass:
47 Square Miles
or 16 perc...
New York City
What does 47 square miles look like?
36 Central Parks (1.3 sq miles)
About 1 City of San Francisco
(49.9 sq ...
New York City by Borough
Today
Total Land Area (in square miles):
Borough
Total
Land Area
% of Total
Land Area
Bronx 43 14...
New York City by Borough
1 Percent Flood Elevation Scenario
FEMA Base Flood Elevation
Borough
Area
(in
Square
Miles)
Area
...
New York City by Dominant Zoning
Today
Type of Dominant
Land Use Zoning
% of Land
Mass
Battery Park City 0.0%
Commercial 4...
New York City by General Land Use Zoning
Today
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City by General Land Use Zoning
Under 1% Flood Elevation
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City by Zoning
Under 1% Flood Elevation
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City by General Land Use Zoning
Area Under 1% Flood Elevation by Total Zoning Percentage
Note: There is a slight ...
New York City by General Land Use Zoning
Area Under 1% Flood Elevation by Square Feet
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000...
General Land Use (in Square feet)
Area Under a 1%
Flood Elevation Total %
Large Open Amusement Parks 1,717,679 1,863,201 9...
Source: NYC PLUTO
• Number of Properties:
64,600 or 7.5% of all properties
in the City of New York
• Number of Housing Uni...
New York City Individual Landmarks
Under 1% Flood Elevation
Lower Manhattan
And Northeastern
Brooklyn Inset
• 8 percent of...
Source: NYC Pluto, NYTimes
Full Value of all Properties in New
York City: $1 trillion
Full Value of Properties under a 1%
...
Source: 2010 US Census with 2012
Population Projections
2012 Total Population of New York City: 8.3 million
2012 Total Pop...
Source: New York City Population
Projections by Age/Sex & Borough Briefing Booklet, 2006
Gehry Towers
76 stories, 903
apar...
Source: PlanNYC. Coastal
Protection,
A Stronger, More Resilient New
York, p.45
2050: 72 square miles of New York City
is i...
New York City
1% Floodplains in the Future
2020s
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City
1% Floodplains in the Future
2050s
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City
1% Floodplains in the Future
2080s
Source: NYC OpenData
Planning Resilience in New York City
Commissioners’ Plan of 1811
One Percent Flood Levels in New York City: Land Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications
One Percent Flood Levels in New York City: Land Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications
One Percent Flood Levels in New York City: Land Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications
One Percent Flood Levels in New York City: Land Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications
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One Percent Flood Levels in New York City: Land Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications

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An demographic, land use and land value exploration of the updated one percent flood levels for New York City.

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One Percent Flood Levels in New York City: Land Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications

  1. 1. Andy Yan One Percent Flood Levels in New York City Land Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications
  2. 2. New York City A History of the Land
  3. 3. Based upon August 2013 1% Flood FEMA Flood Elevations (Zone AE, AO, and VE), this study combines spatial datasets from: • NYC Open Data • The City of New York Planning Department • Citywide Administrative Districts • Land Use Zoning • Primary Land Use Tax Lot Output (PLUTO) • The City of New York Department of Finance • FY 2014 Final Assessment Roll • Federal Government • 2010 Census Block Groups • 2012 Census Estimates for Total Population • 2010 US Census Summary File One •Note: The estimates and maps in this document are for a high level discussion Study Methodology and Data Sources
  4. 4. Source: NYC OpenData New York City Today Total Land Mass: 304 Square Miles
  5. 5. New York City 100 Year Flood Plain Scenario FEMA Base Flood Elevation Total Affected Land Mass: 47 Square Miles or 16 percent of Total City Land Mass Source: NYC OpenData Land Area Under 1% Base Flood Elevation
  6. 6. New York City What does 47 square miles look like? 36 Central Parks (1.3 sq miles) About 1 City of San Francisco (49.9 sq miles) Source: Google Maps
  7. 7. New York City by Borough Today Total Land Area (in square miles): Borough Total Land Area % of Total Land Area Bronx 43 14% Brooklyn 70 23% Manhattan 23 8% Queens 109 36% Staten Island 58 19% Total 303 100% Source: NYC OpenData
  8. 8. New York City by Borough 1 Percent Flood Elevation Scenario FEMA Base Flood Elevation Borough Area (in Square Miles) Area under Flood Elevation % of Total Land Mass Staten Island 58 11 19.5% Queens 109 17 15.8% Brooklyn 70 11 16.3% Manhattan 23 3 14.0% Bronx 43 4 9.9% Total 303 47 15.7% Source: NYC OpenData
  9. 9. New York City by Dominant Zoning Today Type of Dominant Land Use Zoning % of Land Mass Battery Park City 0.0% Commercial 4.8% Manufacturing 14.1% Park/Recreational 13.4% Residential 67.7% Grand Total 100.0% Source: NYC OpenData
  10. 10. New York City by General Land Use Zoning Today Source: NYC OpenData
  11. 11. New York City by General Land Use Zoning Under 1% Flood Elevation Source: NYC OpenData
  12. 12. New York City by Zoning Under 1% Flood Elevation Source: NYC OpenData
  13. 13. New York City by General Land Use Zoning Area Under 1% Flood Elevation by Total Zoning Percentage Note: There is a slight (~1%) data variation in land mass between Zoning and Land Mass data layers Source: NYC OpenData 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total Area Under a 1% Floodplain
  14. 14. New York City by General Land Use Zoning Area Under 1% Flood Elevation by Square Feet - 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 400,000,000 Area Under a 1% Floodplain Note: There is a slight (~1%) data variation in land mass between Zoning and Land Mass data layers Source: NYC OpenData
  15. 15. General Land Use (in Square feet) Area Under a 1% Flood Elevation Total % Large Open Amusement Parks 1,717,679 1,863,201 92% Waterfront Recreational Activities 9,927,306 18,569,273 54% Light and Heavy Industrial Areas 219,266,535 413,720,947 53% Park 314,966,666 1,095,637,163 29% Battery Park City 1,041,830 3,945,625 26% Manufacturing with 1 or 2 story warehouses characterized by loading bays 115,859,696 764,622,857 15% Bridging Commercial and Manufacturing Uses 11,878,955 101,772,574 12% One and Two Family Houses 375,105,007 3,458,333,644 11% High-Bulk Commercial Uses Requiring a Central Location 9,431,704 87,373,608 11% Regional Commercial Centers 14,629,831 142,373,433 10% Lower-Density Residence Districts 56,915,927 753,243,056 8% Central Commercial District 2,717,653 36,540,297 7% High Density Residential 2,008,334 28,313,991 7% Moderate- and higher-density residence districts 85,735,882 1,410,707,934 6% Commercial Districts (Predominant Residential) 1,660,534 29,483,626 6% Total* 1,222,863,540 8,346,501,231 14.7% New York City by General Land Use Zoning Area Under 1% Flood Elevation by Square Footage Note: There is a slight (~1%) data variation in land mass between Zoning and Land Mass data layers Source: NYC OpenData
  16. 16. Source: NYC PLUTO • Number of Properties: 64,600 or 7.5% of all properties in the City of New York • Number of Housing Units: 325,000 units or 9% of total City Stock New York City Properties Under 1% Flood Elevation 85 1,191 7,333 15,532 20,666 7,080 4,678 8,793 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Buildings in Flood Elevation by Year Built
  17. 17. New York City Individual Landmarks Under 1% Flood Elevation Lower Manhattan And Northeastern Brooklyn Inset • 8 percent of Designated Individual Landmarks Source: NYC PLUTO
  18. 18. Source: NYC Pluto, NYTimes Full Value of all Properties in New York City: $1 trillion Full Value of Properties under a 1% Flood Elevation: $111 billion NYC Climate Adaptation Plan Estimated Costs: $20 billion New York City Property Values Under 1% Flood Elevation
  19. 19. Source: 2010 US Census with 2012 Population Projections 2012 Total Population of New York City: 8.3 million 2012 Total Population living in an 1% Flood Zone in New York City: 1.3 million 23% of Total Population Living under the Flood Elevation is Hispanic vs 18% of Total NYC 60% of Total Households Living under the Flood Elevation are renters vs 47% of Total NYC New York City Population Under 1% Flood Elevation Legend 2012 Total Population by Census Block 0 - 1,000 1,001 - 2,000 2,001 - 2,500 2,501 - 5,000 5,001 - 11,095
  20. 20. Source: New York City Population Projections by Age/Sex & Borough Briefing Booklet, 2006 Gehry Towers 76 stories, 903 apartments At 1,000,000 new residents ~438 towers At 800,000 new residents ~263 towers 97 Orchard Street 6 stories, 20 apartments At 1,000,000 new residents ~19,608 buildings At 800,000 new residents ~15,686 buildings More People on Less Land By 2030, New York City is projected to grow by 1,000,000 people
  21. 21. Source: PlanNYC. Coastal Protection, A Stronger, More Resilient New York, p.45 2050: 72 square miles of New York City is in a 100 year floodplain 1983: 33 square miles of New York City Is in a 100 year floodplain New York City Floodplains in the Future
  22. 22. New York City 1% Floodplains in the Future 2020s Source: NYC OpenData
  23. 23. New York City 1% Floodplains in the Future 2050s Source: NYC OpenData
  24. 24. New York City 1% Floodplains in the Future 2080s Source: NYC OpenData
  25. 25. Planning Resilience in New York City Commissioners’ Plan of 1811

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