Energy mix 2050

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Renewable energy, nuclear energy, and the energy mix in 2050

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Energy mix 2050

  1. 1. Renewable energy, nuclear energy and the energy mix in 2050
  2. 2. The ambitions all look the same… Source: BMU, 2008
  3. 3. The ambitions have strong advocates
  4. 4. The reality is quite different Het maken van een hype is een georganiseerde poging tot het buiten werking stellen van de kritische vermogens, om ten behoeve van het gehypete product bij zo veel mogelijk mensen het beeld van de werkelijke verhoudingen te verstoren. Iets hypen is het scheppen van een massale zinsbegoocheling. Hypen is hersenspoelen op de vrije markt. Het verschil met het oude hersenspoelen is dat het allemaal vrijwillig gaat; de overeenkomst is dat de gehypeten, als ze ontdekt hebben wat er is gebeurd, uit hun droom vallen, hard op de aarde. Hoe hard ook, het is hun eigen schuld. Ze wilden dromen. H.J.A.Hofland: Overpeinzing 1036 (15 april 2000).
  5. 5. Want to save energy - worldwide? Make everybody rich! Source: Shell energy scenario's, 2008
  6. 6. IEA: renewable energy in 2030: 2%
  7. 7. Renewable energy in Europe is not for free: the gap between ambition and reality 15 23 17 20 18 30 14 (BAU: 6%) 20 (BAU: 12%) 5 (BAU: 4) 11,5 (BAU:9) 2,6 7,5 8,2 7,5 7,0 17,6 3,4 8,2 1,0 7,1 5,3 6,3 2,1 8,3 0,8 5,4 UK France Italy Spain Germany Denmark Netherlands EU-27 2020 target1 (%)2010 target (%)2008 (%) 1997 (%) RES (primary) sources: Eurostat, project PROGRESS (EC 2008), ECN 1: EC Renewable Energy Directive 2008, final energy demand
  8. 8. Renewable energy Low energy density, huge spatial impact Expensive, many options (biomass) structurally uneconomic, also in the long run Biomass not CO2 neutral, not clean, scarce, competes with food production and has impact on landscape and biodiversity Solar-PV and wind: production depends on sunshine & windspeed; energy storage (batteries), back-up capacity and other new infrastucture needed Solar-PV: energy-input, rare-earth metals needed, waste A lot of (regulated) energy savings needed No use of scarce, and polluting, fossil fuels Less dependent on import fossil fuels Less CO2 emissions WeaknessesStrengths
  9. 9. Renewable energy in Europe: • 0,5% GDP annually needed to reach, and maintain, 20% RES • Cost of energy storage (and energy loss) or back-up capacity for intermittency, other new infrastructure, not yet included • Spatial limitations to onshore wind expansion: the better sites are already exploited • Offshore wind means “Farshore”, means more costly then initially hoped • Potential for Solar-PV in Northern Europe limited to the built environment • Long term potential of biomass depends on successful development of large scale biomass gasification, biomass import and intensification of agricultural productivity worldwide
  10. 10. The nuclear renaissance is reality 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 operating under construction planned proposed jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 dec-09 Source: IAEA, WNA (14% in 2010; IEA low carbon scenario 2009: 20% in 2030)
  11. 11. Nuclear Energy Countries must adhere to IAEA regulations, inspections, and safeguards for non-proliferation Waste needs to be safely isolated from the environment for a very long time. Sound research, environmental impact and performance assessment of underground repositories, is essential Negligibly small use of scarce fossil resources Less dependent on import fossil fuels Only large scale electricity production option (Europe 30%, World: 14%) (almost) without CO2 emissions No spatial impact, economically competitive, fits perfectly well with existing infrastructure ConditionsStrengths
  12. 12. The energy mix in 2050 • We will still use (a lot of) fossil energy in 2050 • Effective policies will focus on mandatory low-carbon targets: let the most (cost) effective option win! • Renewables will flourish in specific regions where they are able to demonstrate competitiveness, and true sustainability, in the long run • More than 50% of world electricity production in 2050 will be nuclear (world electricity demand growth: 2%, nuclear: 5%). New economies will dominate the nuclear energy mix • If Europe agrees on harmonized Gen III standards and regulations, continues the good work on repositories, and convinces the public opinion, it will have ~70% nuclear electricity in 2050. Without any subsidies!
  13. 13. Thank you! http://twitter.com/andrewakker http://andrewakker.blogspot.com http://nl.linkedin.com/in/andrewakker

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