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RUSSIA: COPING WITH TERMINAL DECLINE

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RUSSIA: COPING WITH TERMINAL DECLINE

  1. 1. Russia: Coping with terminal decline? MOHAN GURUSWAMY FORUM FOR STRATEGIC INITIATIVES NEW DELHI JANUARY 6, 2015 1/6.15 1 FSI
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  6. 6. The rise and fall of nations. 1/6.15FSI 6
  7. 7. Source: http://www2.goldmansachs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf The 2050 silhouette! 1/6.15FSI 7
  8. 8. The brave new world to come! 1/6.15FSI 8
  9. 9. Recent Russian GDP trends. 1/6.15FSI 9
  10. 10. 1/6.1510FSI
  11. 11. Running out of people. 1/6.15FSI 11
  12. 12. Getting older. Working age cohort declines. 1/6.15FSI 12
  13. 13. Declining fertility rates and increasing mortality rates, especially among working-age males, have steadily reduced the size of Russia’s population from 148.7 million people in 1992 to just 144.9 million in 2000. According to US Census projections, Russia is expected to further contract in the next five decades to 118 million people, the level it achieved in 1960. 1/6.1513FSI
  14. 14. Needs migration. Chinese? Central Asians? 1/6.15FSI 14
  15. 15. 1/6.15FSI 15 America thrives with enough people of the right age.
  16. 16. Russia’s oil dependency. 1/6.15FSI 16
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  19. 19. 1/6.15FSI 19 Russia hitched to a Europe which doesn’t want it.
  20. 20. Top 10 Foreign Reserves. 1/6.15FSI 20
  21. 21. Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers, and its dramatic interest rate hike to 17% in support of its troubled rouble underscores how heavily its economy depends on energy revenues, with oil and gas accounting for 70% of export incomes or about $365 billion. Russia loses about $2bn in revenues for every dollar fall in the oil price, and the World Bank has warned that Russia's economy would shrink by at least 0.7% in 2015 if oil prices do not recover. 1/6.1521FSI
  22. 22. Oil prices have fallen below $60 a barrel, a huge problem for Russia, where oil and gas revenues finance more than half of the state budget of about $338 billion. Russian authorities were banking on oil prices of $100 per barrel in 2015 to balance the books and are forecasting a sharp recession if prices remain at current levels. Russia’s central bank has taken the drastic step of raising its main interest rate to 17%, a rise of 6.5 percentage points. It is a desperate attempt to restore confidence in the rouble, which has almost halved in value against the dollar in six months.. 1/6.1522FSI
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