Reinventing Survival: A Keynote from ETech 2019


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Can we invent the future and save the world, just by playing a game? Find out how forecasting games like the Institute for the Future's SUPERSTRUCT can help us harness participation bandwidth, solve hard problems, give more people work that actually matters, and turn us into Super Empowered Hopeful Individuals who are capable of re-inventing society,

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Reinventing Survival: A Keynote from ETech 2019

  1. WARNING: When this talk begins, you will find yourself at ETech 2019 .* *and you will be asked to move seats Jane M c Gonigal, PhD U.S. Secretary of Games (former director of game research & development for the Institute for the Future )
  2. <ul><li>SURVIVAL, REINVENTED: </li></ul><ul><li>ETech 2019 </li></ul><ul><li>Technologies for SUPERSTRUCTING </li></ul><ul><li>March 12-15, 2019 Portland, Oregon </li></ul>
  4. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE SEPTEMBER 22, 2018 Humans have 23 years to go
  8. GEAS World Run Supercomputer
  13. Breaking news <ul><li>Solar is Civil Defense: Solar Power advocates offer demonstrations, advice </li></ul><ul><li>Survey shows that governments, corporations not trusted as energy information  resources: May make public more susceptible to energy scams </li></ul><ul><li>Sea Power Piracy: Portuguese wave power system hijacked </li></ul><ul><li>TransAfrica CrowdPower Backbone Begun: Individuals help generate power from Cairo to Pretoria </li></ul>
  15. Breaking news <ul><li>75% of New Trees Must Be Fruit-Bearing: Washington DC adopts local-food ordinance to replace ornamental trees </li></ul><ul><li>• UN &quot;Carbon for Food&quot; proposal meets resistance from both food exporters and importers. </li></ul><ul><li>US Wheat Crop Shows Signs of Blight Infection: A wheat blight Ug99 outbreak has been confirmed in the US harvest for the first time </li></ul><ul><li>Bee colony forecast for Spring 2020 pushes food prices up. </li></ul>
  17. <ul><li>Indonesia declares &quot;viral sovereignty,&quot; denies UN access to local ReDS variant genome. </li></ul><ul><li>US Supreme Court to hear case against employer who fired staff for staying home on &quot;suggested isolation&quot; days. </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity per-worker seeing steady decline due to pandemic effects, say OECD economists. </li></ul><ul><li>Biowarfare Claims in Pakistan-India Tensions: Guerilla groups use asymptomatic carriers as &quot;Bio-Bombs&quot; </li></ul>Breaking news
  19. Breaking news <ul><li>• Deportation of Malaysian refugees from Singapore continues, despite protests. Official cite public safety, national security. </li></ul><ul><li>• US Congress set to debate exurban reclamation bill, extending eminent domain to abandoned communities. </li></ul><ul><li>African Union study declares over 20% of the continent's population &quot;displaced persons.&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>Bangalore software studio Indus River now offering &quot;Diasporas&quot; training simulation, based on Indian experience integrating Bangladeshi refugees. </li></ul>
  21. Breaking news <ul><li>Coordinated “transparency mobs&quot; fallout continues: three more Fortune Global 500 CEOs resign in disgrace, facing corruption charges. </li></ul><ul><li>Baseball star MikoYamamoto denies exceeding Japanese carbon limits, claims intentional &quot;data pollution&quot; by rivals. </li></ul><ul><li>Apple denies rumors of new version of &quot;iKnow&quot; data gathering device. </li></ul><ul><li>MR5ive issues recall on NuView augmented reality glasses due to security flaw allowing outside control of user vision. </li></ul>
  22. Hello @janemcg WE CAN EVEN H4X Ur ETECHs! - transfer 10 million starquest gold pieces via the MMO Exchange or we pwn your slides - acc# 01922811002 1ntrud3rs fr0m sp4ce p.s. thanx 4 microc4sting your net coords sucka Breaking UR SLIDES
  23. <ul><li>“ Most GEAS WorldRun simulations show the human population going from 7 billion to 1.5 billion in the course of five years, once collapse sets in, then down to under 500 million in another ten years.” </li></ul>
  24. <ul><li>“ The best-case scenarios, assuming that we do nothing to alleviate the superthreats, leave about 20 million people alive, worldwide, by 2070, and under a million by 2100.” </li></ul>
  25. Reinventing Survivability with WORK THAT MATTERS
  26. WORK THAT MATTERS: Which superthreat did you choose?
  27. Now please arrange and reseat yourselves accordingly – in less than 60 seconds.
  28. It’s 2019, and you’re doing WORK THAT MATTERS. <ul><li>What’s YOUR superthreat-fighting job title? </li></ul>Jane McGonigal U.S. Department of Games SPEAKER
  29. <ul><li>The thing is: </li></ul><ul><li>It’s not just the ETech community that wants to do work that matters. </li></ul><ul><li>We are desperately in need of ways to help the rest of the world do work that matters. </li></ul>
  32. <ul><li>“ We must collaborate or perish .” </li></ul><ul><li>- Wikinomics </li></ul>
  33. Fortunately, we have the vast, global “social surplus” to draw on.* <ul><li>*(See Clay Shirky’s historic 2008 Web 2.0 talk “Gin, Television, and the Social Surplus”) </li></ul>
  34. GAME DEVELOPERS nominated for a NOBEL PRIZE by 2034
  35. <ul><li>“ Games are the most elevated form of investigation.” </li></ul><ul><li>– Albert Einstein </li></ul><ul><li>(a hard-core gamer!!) </li></ul>
  38. World Without Oil
  43. How we learned from World Without Oil <ul><li>1. We can imagine the ripples of potential events across massively multiple domains </li></ul>
  45. How we learned from World Without Oil <ul><li>2. Together, we can envision the “hard to see” (but theoretically possible) future </li></ul>
  48. How we learned from World Without Oil <ul><li>3. Playing a forecasting game forces us to “build calluses” for our own personal benefit </li></ul>
  52. <ul><li>“ We’re going to need a bigger game.” </li></ul>
  53. <ul><li>it’s time for </li></ul><ul><li>SUPERSTRUCTING . </li></ul><ul><li>to build on top of an existing foundation; </li></ul><ul><li>to strengthen by extending and developing above the basic structure </li></ul>
  57. OUR SECRET MISSION: Create a league of S uper- E mpowered H opeful I ndividuals (SEHIs)* <ul><li>*see Jamais Cascio at </li></ul>
  60. My Superstructure: <ul><li>GAMEDEMIC! </li></ul><ul><li>Game developers </li></ul><ul><li>+ </li></ul><ul><li>CDC and other epidemiologists </li></ul><ul><li>+ </li></ul><ul><li>cognitive scientists </li></ul><ul><li>= </li></ul><ul><li>Survival of the most gameful </li></ul>
  61. “ Going out in the 2019 Quarantine”
  62. Dancing together = Happy
  64. participation outputs in 6 weeks: a community of >7500 SEHIs > 1000 stories about the superthreats > 500 active strategy forums > 550 collaborative superstructures
  65. TOP SUPERSTRUCTURES <ul><li>TIM KRING: </li></ul><ul><li>The most heroic award goes to the members of Lifeliners: embedded tech-savvy humanitarians, who go to countries where the social safety net usually provided by governments has broken down and bootstrap high-tech solutions. </li></ul>
  66. TOP SUPERSTRUCTURES <ul><li>TARA HUNT: </li></ul><ul><li>The most whuffie award goes to the members of Educycle , which open sources education by helping anyone, anywhere “freecycle” what they know. </li></ul>
  67. TOP SUPERSTRUCTURES <ul><li>WARREN ELLIS: </li></ul><ul><li>The Strangestruct award goes to Insects4Food , designed to help solve the &quot;peak protein&quot; dilemma by mass manufacturing insect protein for food. </li></ul>
  68. TOP SUPERSTRUCTURES <ul><li>CHRIS DiBONA: </li></ul><ul><li>The Pandora Award goes to the members of The Society for Creative Breaking of Shit , designed to harness the talents of griefers and hackers for good. </li></ul>
  69. early findings from 2019 <ul><li>ambient collaboration systems and “ facilitators ” are likely to become the most important IT and human resources to invest in </li></ul>
  70. early findings from 2019 <ul><li>alternate currencies will help reverse scarcity & scaffold extreme-scale solutions </li></ul>
  71. early findings from 2019 <ul><li>virtual worlds will broadcast real-time , real-world data to coordinate personal micro-contributions </li></ul>
  72. early findings from 2019 <ul><li>“ immune systems ” become a driving metaphor for developing all kinds of resiliency and avoiding “ the brittle ” </li></ul>
  73. early findings from 2019 <ul><li>“ cradle to grave ” is the new green and both producers and consumers are responsible for un-making and re-making everything </li></ul>
  74. GET THE FULL REPORT <ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>The next </li></ul><ul><li>Ten Year Forecast </li></ul><ul><li>is revealed </li></ul><ul><li>April 20, 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Follow @IFTF on Twitter </li></ul>
  76. SUPERSTRUCT PLAYER: <ul><li>“ This is my favorite vision of the future, because it’s the first one I can actually imagine myself doing something important in.” – Andrew F. </li></ul>
  77. I believe that by gaming together, we can start solving hard problems , help re-invent society , give more people work that matters , and improve our collective survivability .
  79. WARNING: When this talk ends, you will find yourself back at Etech 2009.* *and you will be asked to help invent the future Jane M c Gonigal, PhD future U.S. Secretary of Games? (current director of game research & development for the Institute for the Future ) IFTF.ORG / follow me on Twitter: avantgame