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Pres Vs

  1. 1. 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Background Data Using milk recording data to make better decision on cow Milk health Production Somatic Cell Count Aur´lien Madouasse e Reproduction 10th March 2010
  2. 2. Fifty Million Frenchmen Can’t Be Wrong 20 million data points can’t be They say the French are naughty wrong? They say the French are bad Aur´lien e Madouasse They all declare that over there The French are going mad. Background Data They have a reputation of being very gay Milk I just got back from Paris, and I just want to say: Production Somatic Cell ... Count Reproduction In Viva la France They’re full of romance You’ll find policemen with embroidery on their pants. And when they start to sing the Marseillaise They sing it forty different ways Fifty million Frenchmen can’t be wrong.
  3. 3. Fifty Million Frenchmen Can’t Be Wrong 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  4. 4. A cow’s life 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  5. 5. What is Milk Recording? 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Milk recording is the regular collection of a milk sample from all lactating cows of a dairy herd Background What is measured: Data Milk Milk yield Production % butterfat, % protein, % lactose Somatic Cell Somatic cell count Count Reproduction Information collected Date of birth Date of calving Parity
  6. 6. What is Milk Recording? 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Farmers pay for milk recording, in order to: Background Data Adapt management Identify cows likely to have mastitis Milk Production Identify the best producers Somatic Cell Count The information is also used for Reproduction Genetic evaluation Epidemiologic studies
  7. 7. Dataset 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse The National Milk Records: main provider of milk Background recording in England and Wales Data All the data collected by the NMR between January 2004 Milk and December 2006 were purchased: Production 19,893,093 recordings Somatic Cell Count 1,247,427 cows Reproduction 5,714 herds ⇒ Big!!!
  8. 8. Dataset 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse The National Milk Records: main provider of milk Background recording in England and Wales Data All the data collected by the NMR between January 2004 Milk and December 2006 were purchased: Production 19,893,093 recordings Somatic Cell Count 1,247,427 cows Reproduction 5,714 herds ⇒ Big!!!
  9. 9. Data selection 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aim: Obtain a homogeneous dataset and discard unreliable Aur´lien e data Madouasse Herds recording: Background For the 3 complete years Data On a monthly basis Milk At least 80 % of Holstein-Friesian cows Production Somatic Cell Milk samples collected on 2 consecutive milkings Count Reproduction
  10. 10. Data selection 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aim: Obtain a homogeneous dataset and discard unreliable Aur´lien e data Madouasse Herds recording: Background For the 3 complete years Data On a monthly basis Milk At least 80 % of Holstein-Friesian cows Production Somatic Cell Milk samples collected on 2 consecutive milkings Count Reproduction Final dataset 8,211,988 recordings 483,747 cows 2,128 herds ⇒ Reasonably big!!!
  11. 11. Amelia’s problem 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  12. 12. Amelia’s problem 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data 50 million Frenchmen Milk Production can’t be wrong! Somatic Cell What about one Count Reproduction Frenchman with a few million data points?
  13. 13. Amelia’s problem 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  14. 14. Milk Yield Variation 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Milk Yield Distribution Aur´lien e Madouasse Milk Yield Background Mean ∼ 27 kg/day Data Standard deviation ∼ 8.5 kg Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Milk Yield
  15. 15. Milk Yield Variation 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Milk Yield Distribution Aur´lien e Madouasse Milk Yield Background Mean ∼ 27 kg/day Data Standard deviation ∼ 8.5 kg Milk Using a model notation we Production could write: Somatic Cell Count Yi = µ + i Reproduction Where µ = 27 kg 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 i ∼ Normal(0, 8.5 ) Milk Yield
  16. 16. Milk Yield Variation 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data We can do better than that by Milk Production Somatic Cell incorporating other sources of Count Reproduction variation!!!
  17. 17. Milk Yield Days in milk 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Yield increases from calving Aur´lien e until a peak and decreases 40 Madouasse Background afterwards 35 qqqqqq qq qqq qq q qqq qqqq qqqq qq Incorporating information on qq qq q qq qq q qq qq qq q qq q qq Data q q q q q q q q qq qq qq qq qq qq qq qq qq qq q q qq q qq qq q q qq qq q stage of lactation in Amelia’s q qq qq qq qq 30 q qq qq Mean Milk Yield Milk q q q qq qq qq qqq q qqqqq qq qq qq qqqq qq q Production q qqq qq qqq q qq q qq model should improve her q qq qqq qq qq qq qqq q qqqq qq qq qqq qqqq qq qq qq Somatic Cell qq qq qq 25 qq qq qq qq qqq qq prediction qq qq qq qqq Count qq qq q qq q q qq qq qq q qq qq qq qq qqq qq qqq qq q qqq qq q Reproduction qq qq q qq Using a model notation we q q qqq qq 20 q qq qq qq qq qqq qqq q q qqq qq q qq qq qq qq qq qq qq qq qq qqq qqq qq q qqq q qq qqq would write: qq qqq qq qqq qq qqq q q qqq q qqqqq q qq qq qqq qqq qqq qqqq q q qqq q q qqq q qqq qqq qq q 15 0 100 200 300 400 Yi = µ + β1 Dimi + β2 Dimi2 + ... Days in Milk + i
  18. 18. Milk Yield Parity 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e 40 Madouasse qqq q q q qq q q qqqqqqqq qq q qq q q q q qq qqqq qq q qq qq q q qq qq q qqqqq qqqqq q qqqq q q q q qqqq q q q q q The lactation curve is lower and qqq q q qqq qq qqqqqq qqqq q qq qqqq q qq q qqq qq q q flatter for first lactation cows q q q q qq q q q qq qqqq q q qq qq q q qq qqqq qq qq qq q Background 35 qq q q q q q qq q q q q q q q qq q q q q qq q qq q qq q q qq q qqqqq qq qq qqq q qq q qqq q qq qqq q qq q q q qq qqq qq qqqq q qq qq q qq qqqqq q q q q qq q qqq qqqq q qqqq qqqqq qqq qq q qq qq qq q qq qq qq qqq qq qqq q q q q q qq q q qqqq qq qq q qq qqq qq qqqqq q qqq q q q qq qq qq qqqq Data q q q qq qq q q qqqq qq qqq q q qqqq q q qq The other parities can be q q qq qq qq q q q qqq qq qqqq q q q q q qq qqq qq q q q q q q qq qqqq qq q q q qq qq qq q q qqq q qqq qqqq qq qq qq q q qq qq q qqq qq qq qqq q qqq qqq q q qq qqq qq qq qqq qq q qq qqq qq q qqq qq qqqqq 30 qq qq q q q q q qqq Mean Milk Yield q qq qq q qq qq qq qq qqq q qqq q qq Milk q q qq q q q qq qq qq qqqqq q qqq q qqq qq qqq grouped together q qq qqq qqq qqqqq qqqqq qq qqqq qq q qq q qqq qq qq qqq q qq q qqqq qqq qqqqq qqq qqq qqqqq qq q Production q q q qq q q qq qq qqqqq q qqq qq qqq qq qq qqqqqqqqq q q qq qqqq q qq qqq q qqqqqq qq qq qqqq qqq q qq q q qq qq q qqq qqq q q qq qq qqqq q qqq qq qqqq q qqq qqq qq qq qq qq qq qqq q q qq qqq qq qqq qq qq qq q qq qq qqq q q qqq q qqq qq q qq q qqq qq qqq q q q q qqqqq qqqqq qq qq q q q qqq q q qqqq q q q q qq qqq qqq qqqq qq q qqq q q qq q q q qq qq q qq qqq qq qq q qqqqq qq q qqq qq qq qq q q qqq q qqq q q qq q q Using a model notation we q qqq q qqqq q q q qq q 25 qqqqq qq Somatic Cell q q q q q qqq q qqqqq qqqq qq q q qq qq q qq qq q qqqqq qq q qq qqqq q qq qq q qq qq qqqq qq qq qq qqq q qq q qq q qq qq qqqq qq q q q q q q q qq qq q qqq qq q qq qqq qqqq q qq qq q qq qq qqqq qq q qqqqq qq q q Count q q q qqqq qqqqqqq qqq qqq qqqqqqqq q q q qqq qq q qqq qq q q qqqq qqqq qqqq qqqq q q q q qq qq qqq qqq qqq qqq qqq qqq qq q qq qqq q qq q would write: qqq qq q qqq qqq qqq qq q qqqqqqq qqq qq q qqqq q qqqqq q q q q q q q qq qqqqq q qqqq q qq q qqqqq qq qqqq q qqqq q qqq qq qqq qq qq Reproduction q qq qq qq qq qq qqq qqqq qq qqq qqqq qqq q qqqq 20 qq q qq qq qq qqqqq q qqq q qq qqqqqq qq qq qqqqqqq q qqqqq qq qqqq qq q qq qqqqq q qq q qqq qq qq q qqqq qqqqqq q qqq q q qq qqqqqqqqqqq q qqqqq q qq q q qqq q qqqqq q qqqq Yi = µ + β1 Dimi + β2 Dimi2 + q qq q qq qqqq q q q qq qqq qqqqqqq qqq qq qq qqqqqqq qqqq q q qqqq q qq qqqqqq q qqq q q qqqqqqqqqq q qq qq q qqqqq q q qq q qqq q q qqq qq qqqqqqqq qqqqqq qqq qq q q q qqqqqqq q qqqqqq qqqqqqqqq q q q q qq qqq qqqq qq q q q qqqqqqqq q q q qq q q q qqq q qq qqqqq qq q qq qq qqq qqq qqqqq q qqqqqqqqqq qqqqqq qqq q qq qqqqqqqqqqq qq q qqqqqqqqqqqq qq qq q qqqqqqq qq qq q qq qqq q qqq qqq qqq q qq q qq qqq qqq q q q qq qq q qq qqqqqqq qq q q qq qqqq qq q q qqqq q q q qqq q q qq qq qqqqqqqq qqqqqq qq qq qqqq qq q q qq qqqqqqqqqq qq qq q q q qq q q qq qqq qq q q q qqq q q q qqq qqq q 15 q qq q q qq q q qqqqqqq q qq q qqqq ... + γParityi + q q q 0 100 200 300 400 i Days in Milk
  19. 19. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  20. 20. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  21. 21. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  22. 22. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  23. 23. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  24. 24. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  25. 25. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  26. 26. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  27. 27. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  28. 28. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  29. 29. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  30. 30. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  31. 31. Milk Yield Season 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Parity 1 Parity > 1 Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  32. 32. Solving the problem 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Summary values for milk production were extracted for Background groups of cows stratified by: Data Days in milk Milk Production Parity (1 vs. > 1) Somatic Cell Average herd production Count Month of calving Reproduction ⇒ 168 lactation curves were produced
  33. 33. Amelia is happy 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Her model factored in Background details of variables such Data as the number of cows Milk calving and heifers Production Somatic Cell calving, cows to be dried Count off per month and cows in Reproduction milk exiting the herd The new model has an average accuracy rate of 96.83 %
  34. 34. Amelia is happy 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  35. 35. Somatic Cell Count 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Aur´lien e Madouasse Background Data Milk Production Somatic Cell Count Reproduction
  36. 36. Somatic Cell Count Relation to mastitis 20 million data points can’t be wrong? Mastitis Aur´lien e Madouasse One of the biggest health problems in dairy herds Can be clinical or subclinical Background Causes an increase in milk somatic cell count (SCC) Data Milk Production Bulk Milk Somatic Cell Count Somatic Cell Reflects herd mastitis prevalence Count Penalty on milk price when it is too high Reproduction Contribution of individual cows to BMSCC Can we identify the contribution of different groups of cows to BMSCC?

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