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Paying Premium Publishers is Worth It by Augustine Fou

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Paying Premium Publishers is Worth It by Augustine Fou

  1. 1. marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. You Get What You Pay For The “Premium” in Premium Publishers is Worth Gold July 2015 Augustine Fou, PhD. http://linkd.in/augustinefou acfou @ mktsci .com 212. 203. 7239
  2. 2. July 2015 / Page 1marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou 100 million impressions - 56% bots / NHT Source: Incapsula, Dec 2014 44 million impressions - 63% 9.6 million impressions ad-blocked by user Source: PageFair, Sep 2014 Paid $0.45 CPM on 100M impressions ($45k) and got 10 million productive impressions = $4.69 eCPM Avg. $0.45 CPM 10.4X higher effective cost 16 million impressions - 41% Source: Turn Oct 2013 When paying for “low cost” inventory from unknown publishers Distil Networks says 59% bots, May 2015 37% in-view (RTB) Source: DoubleVerify, Q1 2015
  3. 3. July 2015 / Page 2marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou Data on bots (~60%) fully corroborated by 3 different firms Distil Networks May 2015 – 59% botsIncapsula Dec 2014 – 56% bots SolveMedia Jan 2015 – 56% bots
  4. 4. July 2015 / Page 3marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou Humanness of ad networks varies dramatically confirmed humans 24% overall average confirmed bots 16% overall average declared / search bots 0% overall average NOTE: There is huge difference between high quality ad networks which actually have humans versus low quality ad networks which have large amounts of confirmed bot traffic and literally zero confirmed humans.
  5. 5. July 2015 / Page 4marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou Examples of “low cost” / suspect publishers 88% confirmed bots 0% confirmed humans
  6. 6. July 2015 / Page 5marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou Documented cases dating back to 2013 http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou /what-fraudulent-traffic-looks-like- research-by-augustine-fou http://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou /how-to-generate-fake-traffic-and-ad- impressions
  7. 7. July 2015 / Page 6marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou But .... when paying higher CPMs to premium publishers 100 million impressions - 2% bad bots Source: Marketing Science July 2015 98 million impressions - 40% 60% in-view (publisher direct) Source: Sizmek, Apr 2015 35 million impressions ad-blocked by user Source: PageFair, Sep 2014 Paid $0.45 CPM on 100M impressions ($45k) and got 35 million productive impressions = $1.28 eCPM Avg. $0.45 CPM 59 million impressions - 40% Source: Turn Oct 2013 “premium publishers typically earn around $1.35 CPM from open exchanges” Source: DCN, May 2015
  8. 8. July 2015 / Page 7marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou Viewability rate of premium publishers: 49 – 56 – 60 – 67% 56% viewable 45% viewable Source: Sizmek, Apr 2015 Source: DoubleVerify April, 2015 Source: Vindico April, 2015 Source: Marketing Science, July 2015 Directly measured, only premium publishers (60) 60% viewable
  9. 9. July 2015 / Page 8marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou Premium publishers actually have real human visitors! 80 – 90% confirmed humans
  10. 10. July 2015 / Page 9marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou Premium Publishers’ Overall Humans vs Bots confirmed humans 77% overall average confirmed bots 2% overall average declared / search bots 1% overall average Note that 1% confirmed bots does not mean 99% humans; and vice versa 87% humans does not mean 13% bots. Using a deterministic approach, there are visits that cannot be sufficiently, accurately labeled and hence are marked uncategorized.
  11. 11. July 2015 / Page 10marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou Premium Publishers’ Best Practices • Never source traffic – premium publishers actually do the hard work of creating useful content that human visitors actually want to read; so humans go to their sites and these publishers don’t have to buy more traffic • Limit “audience extension” – premium publishers use their own social channels to spread the great content or make it easy for people to discover; they don’t need to pay other vendors to do audience extension • Continuously measure yourself – premium publishers can take proactive steps to measure the levels of bot activity on their site; verify referring traffic coming to their site and block fraudulent sources • Allow advertisers to measure – premium publishers who have nothing to hide should be open to having advertisers deploy their own measurement tags; but there is no need to have a dozen such measurement tags • Be transparent, support with data – being “transparent” unfortunately means a lot of different things, but premium publishers can show down to the visit level why that visit was a real human (versus a bot)
  12. 12. January 2015 / Page 11marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. CONFIDENTIAL Case Study 2: advertiser increased served ads to humans, less bots By systematically reducing spend to sites that had the highest incidence of bots, the advertiser increased ad impressions served to humans, and lowered those served to bots.
  13. 13. January 2015 / Page 12marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. CONFIDENTIAL Case Study 3: advertiser increases ad served to humans Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 20% confirmed humans 30% confirmed humans 190k 5k 220k 6k 280k 7k total goal events average daily goals 10% confirmed humans
  14. 14. July 2015 / Page 13marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou So What? “If you’re an advertiser looking for returns on your ad spend, buying ‘premium’ from publishers who can prove it – i.e. demonstrate higher ‘humanness’ – is worth it’s weight in gold. Paying $1.36 eCPM to premium publishers is 3X better than $4.69 eCPM to suspect ones (after you discard the waste). When you buy anything else, you literally get what you pay for.” -- Dr. Augustine Fou
  15. 15. July 2015 / Page 14marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. Dr. Augustine Fou Dr. Augustine Fou – Independent Ad Fraud Researcher “I research ad fraud, and specifically bots, so I can advise clients on how to detect and mitigate the various forms of fraud. This has the most direct impact on the ROI of their digital marketing programs.” FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM) MCKINSEY CONSULTANT CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23 ClickZ Articles: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-clickz Slideshares: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-slideshares LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/today/author/84444-augustinefou

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