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Ad fraud is more than just bots jan 2019

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Ad fraud is only a part of the sum total of issues that make digital ads less effective and waste marketers' ad budgets -- i.e. reduced working media.

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Ad fraud is more than just bots jan 2019

  1. 1. January 2019 / Page 0marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Fraud is more than just bots $1 spent by Marketer blocked see slide 1 site/app fraud see slides 2-4 ad/user fraud see https://www.slideshare.net/augustinefou/presentations not viewable see slides 5-7 10% 30% 40% 20% • fake sites, spoofing • auto-reload/refresh • ad stacking • tag manipulation • redirect/sourced traffic • pop-ups/unders • naked/invisible ads • bots/fake users • fake devices • background load • fake apps • deviceID rotation • random deviceID • retargeting fraud • fake profiles/data • malware/adware • fake analytics • fake attribution • click injection • incentivized views • residential proxy • app is in use • tab is active • not minimized • 50% ad in viewport • misrepresented • (1s display, 2s video) 10% 70% 20% blocked fraud useless productive digital ads for Marketer
  2. 2. January 2019 / Page 1marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Overall ad blocking – B2C, B2B Higher ad blocking in b2b compared to b2s, more mobile in b2c B2C (Consumer) Jan 2019 EXCLUDE BOTS RAW (percent of data) percent NOT Blocked Blocked mobile 61.8% 0.4% 0.7% blocking rate desktop 27.6% 3.1% 10.2% blocking rate not measured 4.8% 97.8% 2.2% bots B2B Jan 2019 EXCLUDE BOTS RAW (percent of data) percent NOT Blocked Blocked mobile 34.5% 0.5% 1.3% blocking rate desktop 39.9% 9.0% 18.5% blocking rate not measured 7.9% 91.8% 8.2% bots
  3. 3. January 2019 / Page 2marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou U.S. Digital Ad Spend Distribution $46 Search Display/Video $46 $32$39 $8 Google Search FB+Google Display$29 (outside Google/Facebook) $100 Billion Digital SpendSource: IAB 2H 2018 Report Source: Verisign, Q4 2016 329M domains est. 1 million est. 164 million 7M apps Source: Statista, March 2017 est. 10,000 est. 6.99 million 1% of impressions 99% of impressions $10B $19B Good Publishers “sites/apps with ads”
  4. 4. January 2019 / Page 3marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou $23 (outside Google/Facebook) There’s 160X more “sites with ads” Good Publishers “sites with ads” Source: Verisign, Q4 2016 329M domains est. 164 million “sites that carry ads” “sites you’ve heard of” WSJ ESPN NYTimes Economist Reuters Elle 0.3% no ads carry ads 160X more 78% programmatic est. 1 million
  5. 5. January 2019 / Page 4marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou $23 (outside Google/Facebook) 700X more There’s 700X more fake apps 7M apps Source: Statista, March 2017 6.99 million 96% “apps that carry ads” 10,000 “apps you’ve heard of” Facebook Spotify Pandora Zynga Pokemon YouTube Facebook, 2015 Users use 8 – 15 apps on their phones. Spotify, 2016 People have 25 apps on their phones, use 5-8 regularly Forrester Research, May 2017 Humans “use 9 apps per day, 30 per month” 78% programmatic
  6. 6. January 2019 / Page 5marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou 1cent CPM vs All CPMs No statistical difference between 1cent CPM inventory vs All CPMs Exchange A, 1c CPM exclude app app only blended hasFocus:1 4.9% 5% 0.0% 0% 4.9% 5% -hasFocus:1 92.0% 95% 3.1% 100% 95.1% 95% 96.9% 3.1% 100.0% visibilityState:visible 57.3% 59% 1.8% 59% 59.1% 59% -visibilityState:visible 39.6% 41% 1.3% 41% 40.9% 41% 96.9% 3.1% 100.0% intersection >50% 30.8% 32% 1.5% 48% 32.3% 32% -intersection >50% 66.1% 68% 1.6% 52% 67.7% 68% 96.9% 3.1% 100.0% viewable 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% (excl hasFocus:1) viewable 18.8% 28.4% 19.1% Exchange A, All CPMs exclude app app only blended hasFocus:1 4.2% 5% 0.5% 4.8% 4.7% 5% -hasFocus:1 84.7% 95% 10.6% 95.2% 95.3% 95% 88.9% 11.1% 100.0% visibilityState:visible 69.9% 79% 9.6% 86.1% 79.5% 80% -visibilityState:visible 19.0% 21% 1.5% 13.9% 20.5% 20% 88.9% 11.1% 100.0% intersection >50% 20.1% 23% 4.2% 37.4% 24.2% 24% -intersection >50% 68.8% 77% 7.0% 62.6% 75.8% 76% 88.9% 11.1% 100.0% viewable 0.8% 1.5% 0.9% (excl hasFocus:1) viewable 17.8% 32.2% 19.3% OBSERVATIONS • Quality is virtually identical (dark blue and dark red similar across both CPM ranges) • Buying on the same exchange appears to yield very similar viewability whether the CPMs were 1cent or all CPMs • % of impressions from apps is higher for higher average CPMs
  7. 7. January 2019 / Page 6marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou 2 Campaigns on the same DSP Quality and viewability are consistent for campaigns on same DSP Campaign A, All CPMs exclude app app only blended hasFocus:1 1.1% 1% 0.7% 4.8% 1.8% 2% -hasFocus:1 83.6% 99% 14.6% 95.2% 98.2% 98% 84.7% 15.3% 100.0% visibilityState:visible 61.1% 72% 13.7% 89.3% 74.8% 75% -visibilityState:visible 23.6% 28% 1.6% 10.7% 25.2% 25% 84.7% 15.3% 100.0% intersection >50% 17.1% 20% 7.4% 48.2% 24.5% 24% -intersection >50% 67.6% 80% 7.9% 51.8% 75.5% 76% 84.7% 15.3% 100.0% viewable 0.2% 2.1% 0.3% (excl hasFocus:1) viewable 14.6% 43.1% 18.3% Campaign B, All CPMs exclude app app only blended hasFocus:1 1.0% 1% 0.5% 2.7% 1.5% 2% -hasFocus:1 80.8% 99% 17.7% 97.3% 98.5% 99% 81.8% 18.2% 100.0% visibilityState:visible 57.8% 71% 12.9% 70.5% 70.6% 71% -visibilityState:visible 24.0% 29% 5.4% 29.5% 29.4% 29% 81.8% 18.2% 100.0% intersection >50% 11.2% 14% 5.2% 28.5% 16.4% 16% -intersection >50% 70.6% 86% 13.0% 71.5% 83.6% 84% 81.8% 18.2% 100.0% viewable 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% (excl hasFocus:1) viewable 9.7% 20.1% 11.6% OBSERVATIONS • Quality is virtually identical (dark blue and dark red similar across both campaigns) • Buying on the same DSP appears to yield very similar viewability results across campaigns • % of impressions from apps vs non-apps are consistent across campaigns
  8. 8. January 2019 / Page 7marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou Exchange A vs Exchange B Exchange A has more confirmed humans, higher quality than B Exchange A, All CPMs exclude app app only blended hasFocus:1 4.2% 5% 0.5% 4.8% 4.7% 5% -hasFocus:1 84.7% 95% 10.6% 95.2% 95.3% 95% 88.9% 11.1% 100.0% visibilityState:visible 69.9% 79% 9.6% 86.1% 79.5% 80% -visibilityState:visible 19.0% 21% 1.5% 13.9% 20.5% 20% 88.9% 11.1% 100.0% intersection >50% 20.1% 23% 4.2% 37.4% 24.2% 24% -intersection >50% 68.8% 77% 7.0% 62.6% 75.8% 76% 88.9% 11.1% 100.0% viewable 0.8% 1.5% 0.9% (excl hasFocus:1) viewable 17.8% 32.2% 19.3% Exchange B, All CPMs exclude app app only blended hasFocus:1 0.4% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0% -hasFocus:1 95.1% 100% 4.5% 100.0% 99.7% 100% 95.5% 4.5% 100.0% visibilityState:visible 34.3% 36% 4.2% 92.2% 38.4% 38% -visibilityState:visible 61.2% 64% 0.4% 7.8% 61.6% 62% 95.5% 4.5% 100.0% intersection >50% 8.0% 8% 0.5% 10.9% 8.5% 9% -intersection >50% 87.5% 92% 4.0% 89.1% 91.5% 91% 95.5% 4.5% 100.0% viewable 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (excl hasFocus:1) viewable 3.0% 10.0% 3.3%
  9. 9. January 2019 / Page 8marketing.scienceconsulting group, inc. linkedin.com/in/augustinefou 2017 Digital Ad Productivity est. Served ad impressions Not NHT 74% 26% Avg NHT “working digital media” fees, profit margin (ad tech, middlemen) 1/3rd 2/3rd “At the very best, only 60 cents of every dollar spent in digital media actually goes towards ‘working digital media’.” “productive digital ads” 59% not viewable 35% ad blocked Viewable 41% Not Blocked 10% confirmed humans 16%

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