Were mayans right

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Were mayans right

  1. 1. Atul Bagga(accompanying blog-post at aplusgame.blogspot.com)
  2. 2. Return AnnualizedTicker IPO Date IPO Price Current Price since IPO returnP Jun-11 $16.00 $7.95 -50% -34%GRPN Nov-11 $20.00 $4.41 -78% -70%ZNGA Dec-11 $10.00 $2.45 -76% -76%FB May-12 $38.00 $27.98 -26% -45%Average -58% -56%NASDAQ Peak-tough performance (May-00 to Sep-01) -70% -62%
  3. 3. $45.00 3500 P GRPN ZNGA FB NASDAQ (RHS)$40.00 3000$35.00 2500$30.00$25.00 2000$20.00 1500$15.00 1000$10.00 500 $5.00 $0.00 0 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12
  4. 4. $1,200 Advertising revenue Payment & Other$1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  5. 5. 1100 650 MAU (Million, LHS) DAU (Million, RHS) 6001000 550900 500800 450 700 400600 350500 300400 250 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  6. 6. 5.50 2.90 US & Canada Europe 2.705.00 2.504.50 2.30 2.104.00 1.903.50 1.703.00 1.50 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  7. 7. 1.30 Asia ROW1.201.101.000.900.800.700.600.50 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  8. 8. 2.70 65% ARPDAU Mobile DAU/Total DAU 60%2.50 55%2.30 50%2.10 45%1.90 40%1.70 35%1.50 30% 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  9. 9. 350 350% Revenue ($ Million, LHS) Revenue Growth (%, RHS) 300%300 250%250 200%200 150%150 100%100 50% 50 0% 0 -50% 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  10. 10. 350 80 70300 60250 50200 40150 30100 20 50 Monthly Active User of MAU (Million, LHS) Daily Active User or DAU (Million, RHS) 10 - - 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  11. 11. 40.00 4.5035.00 4.00 3.5030.00 3.0025.00 2.5020.00 2.0015.00 1.5010.00 1.00 5.00 0.50 Average Revenue Per Paying User or ARPPU ($/Month, LHS) Monthly Paying Users or MPU (Million, RHS) - - 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports
  12. 12. 7.00 0.5 0.456.00 0.45.00 0.35 0.34.00 0.253.00 0.22.00 0.15 ARPDAU (LHS, Cents) Mobile DAU/Total DAU (RHS) 0.11.00 0.05 - 0 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 Source: Company Reports

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